Posted on 04/13/2008 12:26:19 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
I'm getting a lot of hate e-mail these days. This onslaught is not entirely a bad thing. It reassures me that my bet against the crowd is a wise one. I'm bullish and have been steadily since the July 8, 2002 issue. In my Jan. 28 column I reiterated the upbeat outlook and reminded you that the fourth year of a presidency only rarely delivers losses to stockholders. Now, with stocks globally (as measured by the Morgan Stanley All-Country World Index) down 8.6% so far this year, people are telling me I'm an idiot. Someone posted to FORBES Web site, "Hi Ken. It's been an absolute pleasure watching you vie for the 2008 Henry Blodget Award. Keep up the good work!"
Gloat for now, but please note that 2008 isn't over. I still think the year will end in the plus column. And I'm never happier than when I'm alone.
My critics call me a perma-bull. They forget I called the last three full-fledged bear markets right here in FORBES--reasonably well and better than most--and mostly alone (June 15, 1987; Nov. 27, 1989; Feb. 19, 2001). I know I may be wrong now. But I see what's happened since Jan. 1 as just a major correction, very comparable to 1998, with a few things flip-flopped, as described in my Feb. 25 column.
On Mar. 13 Goldman Sachs (nyse: GS - news - people ) demoted market strategist Abby Cohen for having been bullish too long. That day marked the bottom of the back half of what I think is a double-bottom whose first bottom was in January. I see Goldman's move as bullish. That once famous market timer Joe Granville materialized out of nowhere saying that we are beginning a bad bear market. I'd bet against Joe any time.
(Excerpt) Read more at forbes.com ...
Good luck with that:
http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/p104966.asp
When the market is studied over long periods, dollar-cost averaging almost always produces lower returns than investing lump sums in diversified portfolios, and almost never reduces risk meaningfully.
“Inflation is not a reduction in real wealth for a nation - but a redistribution of the rights to that wealth among its citizens. Those who lose wealth often pay taxes for the privilege, while the wealth gains can be tax-free.”
The Great Retirement Experiment
http://the-great-retirement-experiment.com/index.htm
What happens when 50 million boomers try to cash out $44 trillion in PAPER wealth?
Deflation Meets Inflation
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/amerman/2008/0306.html
Get ready for the redistribution.
Get thee to the AG sector. Buy MOS, MON, and POT.
Soylent Green
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