People still seem to be missing the paradigm shift that’s coming with advanced in computation over the next two decades.
I’ve said it before here, but I’ll repeat myself.
The first person to get AI wins, and it doesn’t matter how many people, engineers or PHds you have (even billions), China can’t compete with self engineering AI systems.
This is if you accept exceptionally optimistic notions like those coming from MIT alum Kurzweil. And even if you don’t, clearly, the lead people have in automation and computing technology will blast beyond the manpower of communist China.
Who’s getting the patents for this technology? MSFT for example, and Japanese and Korean companies.
Not China. And China must uphold the law. Therefore, China is a paper tiger IMHO.
China also should have owned the world in the last two centuries eh?
If manpower were the key, it would have.
But manpower wasn’t the key then and they didn’t. Turned out technology was the key.
But the paradigm shift was subtle then too, just as it is now.
Robotics and technology can easily overpower and squash manpower and human engineering.
You can bet Japan sees this and Japan ultimately will dominate Asia(followed in a close second by KOR).
I’d bet my 401k on it.
What do you mean specifically by the first person to get AI wins? I’ve been in the AI business for over 20 years. It has been inside products for over a generation in both the US and in Asia.
In fact, I’ll just continue to blab on by replying to myself here.
I am interested in robotics and like to spend money, so I figured I’d get a semi-serious robot like Roboloid, but in my quest, I quickly realized all of the high end robots for serious hobbying are made in Korea/Japan.
Canada and the US make the best hobby planes. Go figure.
China is for cheap-shit knockoff plastic robots mass produced to sell at Best Buy.
And the US? The US can only hope to dominate here by being number 1 in AI, but we’re getting our asses kicked in mechanical engineering.
Japan has traditionally placed much more emphasis on engineering (like actual engineering of physical systems), whereas they have lacked interest in software. They’re trying to change this. MSFT has a lot of patents and does a lot of original research, so we’re fairly well protected here from complete domination.
It may take physical systems engineered and produced in Kor and Japan as well as software engineered in the US or Germany to get the first truly magnificent AI off the ground, but obviously missing from this formula is China.
Again, if you think those giant Japanese and Korean brains are going to stand by and watch China take over, think again.
What law must China uphold? Copyright law? Patent law? I'm not much of a China fear monger but their abuses in these areas are legendary.
This is one of the most insightful statements I've heard in a long time. I think I may just be inspired. :)
I’ll take that bet. I’ll wager my life savings that no digital device capable of passing the Turing Test over a period of one year will ever exist.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is based on a fallacy: the fallacy of materialism. The premise of AI is that consciousness (which is what AI advicates actually want to create) is an epiphenomenon of matter (the brain). This premise, however, is unproved and likely unprovable. No demonstrable correlation between consciousness and brain function exists. Big brains do not mean higher intelligence; in fact, there have been people born without any appreciable brain tissue whatsoever that have been fully conscious and intelligent.
The truth is that we have no real idea what consciousness is. We know that the brain is related to consciousness in some way, but consciousness itself is neither measurable nor quantifiable, and therefore lies outside the realm of science, which deals only with the measurable and quantifiable. How, then, are we to synthesize consciousness?
I submit that we cannot. The brain is not a computer, and the mind is not software. Although I fully expect computers to become increasingly fast and increasingly compact, in the end they will still be nothing more than machines executing commands.
” And China must uphold the law.”
You can’t be serious! China does what is in its best interest and Nobody holds their feet to the fire. They don’t need no steenking patents. Name something anyone has kept out of their hands.