Windows is 'collapsing,' Gartner analysts warn

Computer Worlds ^ | April 10, 2008 | Gregg Keizer

[E. Pluribus Unum]

The researchers damn Windows in current form, urge radical changes

Calling the situation "untenable" and describing Windows as "collapsing," a pair of Gartner analysts yesterday said Microsoft Corp. must make radical changes to its operating system or risk becoming a has-been.

In a presentation at a Gartner-sponsored conference in Las Vegas, analysts Michael Silver and Neil MacDonald said Microsoft has not responded to the market, is overburdened by nearly two decades of legacy code and decisions, and faces serious competition on a whole host of fronts that will make Windows moot unless the software developer acts.

"For Microsoft, its ecosystem and its customers, the situation is untenable," said Silver and MacDonald in their prepared presentation, titled "Windows Is Collapsing: How What Comes Next Will Improve."

Among Microsoft's problems, the pair said, is Windows' rapidly-expanding code base, which makes it virtually impossible to quickly craft a new version with meaningful changes. That was proved by Vista, they said, when Microsoft -- frustrated by lack of progress during the five-year development effort on the new operating -- hit the "reset" button and dropped back to the more stable code of Windows Server 2003 as the foundation of Vista.

"This is a large part of the reason [why] Windows Vista delivered primarily incremental improvements," they said. In turn, that became one of the reasons why businesses pushed back Vista deployment plans. "Most users do not understand the benefits of Windows Vista or do not see Vista as being better enough than Windows XP to make incurring the cost and pain of migration worthwhile."

Other analysts, including those at Gartner rival Forrester Research Inc., have highlighted the slow move toward Vista. Last month, Forrester said that by the end of 2007 only 6.3% of 50,000 enterprise computer users it surveyed were working with Vista. What gains Vista made during its first year, added Forrester, appeared to be at the expense of Windows 2000; Windows XP's share hardly budged.

The monolithic nature of Windows -- although Microsoft talks about Vista's modularity, Silver and MacDonald said it doesn't go nearly far enough -- not only makes it tough to deliver a worthwhile upgrade, but threatens Microsoft in the mid- and long-term.

Users want a smaller Windows that can run on low-priced -- and low-powered -- hardware. And increasingly, users work with "OS-agnostic applications," the two analysts said in their presentation. It takes too long for Microsoft to build the next version, the company is being beaten by others in the innovation arena, and in the future -- perhaps as soon as the next three years -- it's going to have trouble competing with Web applications and small, specialized devices.

"Apple introduced its iPhone running OS X, but Microsoft requires a different product on handhelds because Windows Vista is too large, which makes application development, support and the user experience all more difficult," according to Silver and MacDonald.

"Windows as we know it must be replaced," they said in their presentation.

Their advice to Microsoft took several forms, but one road they urged the software giant to take was virtualization. "We envision a very modular and virtualized world," said the researchers, who spelled out a future where virtualization -- specifically a hypervisor -- is standard on client as well as server versions of Windows.

"An OS, in this case Windows, will ride atop the hypervisor, but it will be much thinner, smaller and modular than it is today. Even the Win32 API set should be a module that can be deployed to maintain support for traditional Windows applications on some devices, but other[s] may not have that module installed."

Backward compatibility with older applications should also be supported via virtualization. "Backward compatibility is a losing proposition for Microsoft; while it keeps people locked into Windows, it also often keeps them from upgrading," said the analysts. "[But] using built-in virtualization, compatibility modules could be layered atop Win32, or not, as needed."

Silver and MacDonald also called on Microsoft to make it easier to move to newer versions of Windows, re-think how it licenses Windows and come up with a truly modular operating system that can grow or shrink as needed.

Microsoft has taken some new steps with Windows, although they don't necessarily match what the Gartner analysts recommended. For instance, the company recently granted Windows XP Home a reprieve from its June 30 OEM cut-off, saying it would let computer makers install the older, smaller operating system on ultra-cheap laptops through the middle of 2010.

It will also add a hypervisor to Windows -- albeit the server version -- in August, and there are signs that it will launch Windows 7, the follow-on to Vista, late next year rather than early 2010.

[Slapshot68]

“You want to play games that companies only make to run on Windows”

Which would be like 99% of them. lol

Yes I know you have a choice, but it’s like gym class where you’re picking teams for basketball and one guy is 7 feet tall. Guess who I’m picking first.

Point is, the deck is stacked.

[adorno]

I wouldn’t put Windows in the “simple to use” category.

For most of what a "simple" or "stupid" person would use a computer, it is simple. The learning curve is not steep at all and once a person is introduced to the basics, it's only a matter of time before that person feels secure enough to navigate into more difficult waters.

[Cicero]

Well, I may repent, but I got 3 gig of memory rather than pay for 4 gig, because of that limitation. And it’s pretty spritely, for the moment at least.

[jalisco555]

You have to realize with Apple, the majority of Apple users are sycophants for Jobs, so they’ll gripe, but will do what he says.

Come on, this cliche is getting very old. I switched to Mac for perfectly rational reasons- weariness with viruses, spyware, etc. and exasperation with Dell's awful tech support. My Mac experience has been delightful and I know I speak for the majority of Mac users in saying that.

[B Knotts]

Windows makes ordinary tasks easy, and extraordinary tasks nearly impossible.

[Slapshot68]

“My Mac experience has been delightful and I know I speak for the majority of Mac users in saying that.”

As much as the Mac is a good machine with a good OS, I submit that if Apple had the install base that Microsoft has, the MAC would suffer just as many viruses/spyware etc.

[gjones77]

I know what you’re saying, but you can’t blame MS for having a product that everyone considers the standard.

Complain to the game companies, ask them why they won’t make a Linux or Mac version, they’ll give you the same answer, it’s about market share.

Are you going to make a product that only 9% of the market will be able to use or one that 80% of the market will use?

Supply and demand, the free market wins again.

[gjones77]

My Windows experience in delightful.

I can’t justify buying a computer for double the price that an equal Windows machine would cost.

Plus I like knowing all the hardware and software I enjoy will be compatible.

[D-fendr]

Running apps maybe. If they have a techie to call on for the other stuff.

Setting up, installing spyware, anti-virus, troubleshooting and maintaining, I disagree. It’s not the OS I’d recommend for the simple user.

[Slapshot68]

“I know what you’re saying, but you can’t blame MS for having a product that everyone considers the standard.”

I always tell people that Windows has come a long way. Anyone remember when Windows was just dressing for DOS?

I remember tinkering with all sorts of settings/config/bootups that most people today just take for granted.

[sionnsar]

That's good for consumers, but not good news for Microsoft's continued growth.

And they are still growing, putting up several new buildings near the main campus.

If Microsoft stumbles, it's not going to be good for housing prices here.

[rightsmart]

We didn't install Vista on the old machines. The old machines, were actually running Windows 2000 pro. My Tech guy told us that there were large windows 2000 updates that downloaded (because they were set to automatically download updates from Microsoft). These updates were supposedly to help with compatibility issues with Vista. After years of security and other updates, there was finally not enough room left on the old drives.

[AppyPappy]

If you want to save all emails in one file, click on the messages you want and do a Save As.

[chuckles]

....."maybe someone else on here has an idea.".....

Yeah, but it ain't legal. When you buy your disk just don't register. The help they give will never pay back the freedom you lose. Some people need the handholding, others don't. There are cracks and hacks out there to get around this, but you have to get it in your mind that Bill "owes" it to you to be able to cheat.

It is a shame to have 3-4 computers with 3-4 disks and can't swap or use them again, but that's the system. If you haven't registered your copy of XP PRO with Bill, then you can boot to a prompt and migrate to the I386 folder and install from winnt.exe. There are free utilities to boot and format with on the internet. Try Googling "boot disks". Some give quite a range of utility to check your disk and move partitions and such stuff. The disk the computer company gave you may or may not have a readable I386 folder.

It's quite a job, but you can build your own boot disk and copy the I386 folder from your own hard drive to a CD.( meaning most people will have a bunch of coasters if they don't have a clue). That would give you your own copy of XP to start any computer with. The problem comes when you have a registered copy with some other computer, Bill finds out and starts to warn you you will be assimilated. XP Pro doesn't need to be activated, so you can just install, but NEVER use windows upgrade. Click the box that says "check with me before downloading and installing upgrades."( the middle one). Then, everytime the little shield says there are upgrades available, click on it and make sure you never download and install the Genuine authentication tool.

You can never get above Mediaplayer 10 and IE6. Media player 11 and IE7 require authentication. All other safety downloads are available. Just use any of 100 media players available and FireFox or Opera to get all the latest stuff. Most things don't care if it's Mediaplayer 9 or 11, and IE7 kinda sucks anyway. Realplayer is free and most burning software like Nero has a player for anything. I like Realplayer more than Media Player anyway. I can move my mouse over a video link and download it to my hard drive and play it and send it to anyone.

XP Lite is a small program that removes the bloatware you don't want or need and lets you customize your install of XP to your needs. It speeds things up and makes your install very small.

[AppyPappy]

It should be. If you did 4 gig, you would get 4 gig - your onboard graphics - any residual loss AND you would probably have Dual Channel speed.

So you would have 4 - 512M for video - about 250 meg of loss.

If you have 3 gig and onboard video, you are losing the amount of onboard video you are using. 3 gig - 512M = 2.5G of memory available.

[adorno]

Running apps maybe. If they have a techie to call on for the other stuff.

Setting up, installing spyware, anti-virus, troubleshooting and maintaining, I disagree.

Most installations for anti-spyware, anti-virus, and firewalls are actually very simple nowadays. But, even before a pc is taken home, the anti-virus or anti-spyware programs might have been installed as per the recommendations of the store salespeople and techies. Same for the firewalls. And, troubleshooting and maintenance of the pc and the software is not something that even some of the more savvy techies can handle or want to handle.

It’s not the OS I’d recommend for the simple user.

The non-technical user, or the everyday user, should be able to handle most of the features and interface of the Windows OS.

What you are stating would apply to the completely brainless and no doubt, the brainless wouldn't even think about owning or working around a pc.

[AppyPappy]

That’s more updates than I have ever seen. You can always delete the update files. You don’t need them unless you plan to back out an update.

[ShadowAce]

[chuckles]

"Simple" is a relative term. I can do almost anything I NEED to do on a Windows box, but am totally lost on Linux. I started with DOS 3.0 and went on from there. Most people that know me come to me for help with their box troubles. I've probably built 50 or more computers for myself and family and friends, all with some form of Windows on it.

People keep telling me how simple Linux is, but I just don't get it. I can install it, surf the net and check e-mail, but much more than that is greek to me. I don't feel comfortable not knowing how to install a driver, upgrade a codec, etc. I can't figure why I have to "mount" a drive, and so on. I'm just so used to doing it Bills way, I just need a teacher I think to learn something else. I learned everything I know from doing for myself. I would switch in a minute if I knew the ins and outs of Linux. I have Ubuntu, Mandrake, Xandros, and Suse, and have tried all 4. Xandros was the easiest, but even that one wanted me to install a codec to play a certain file and I didn't have a clue how to do it. When you burn music, burn movies, convert movie files, scan documents, record TV, and on and on, I just can't spend days trying to figure out what program does what and how to get it to work.

I have Suse loaded on a throw down puter right now to play with it, but I just have so much spare time. Windows makes sense because it's what I know.

[untrained skeptic]

And they are still growing, putting up several new buildings near the main campus.

If Microsoft stumbles, it's not going to be good for housing prices here.

Microsoft has for a long time been branching out and finding other markets in which they can grow more.

Their OS hasn't been their cash cow for a long time.

The market for Office Productivity software not having a lot of room for growth is a lot more troublesome for them.

However, I they have already invested in a lot of technologies that they can tie together and leverage their way into new markets.

For example they have been looking at the car PC concept for a very long time.

They have Microsoft Streets GPS software.

They have the Sync system used in Ford cars for voice control.

They have Windows mobile for cell phones, and with the bandwidth of cell networks growing, they are well positioned to take advantage of our increasing mobility in computing.

They are well invested in the search engine and online marketplace technologies.

They are well positioned to bring people the tools they might want while using their phones, or in the car, or the home, or the office.

I suspect that going wireless is the next big change in computing technology, but it really isn't going to be a radical change, because companies, especially Microsoft are already positioned and waiting for the technology to mature and make it possible.

You only really see radical change when something takes most people by surprise.

It's still possible that could happen, but even if it does, Microsoft is likely better prepared than most to change course and leverage what they have now into that new market.