Posted on 03/31/2008 11:21:45 AM PDT by kingattax
Here's a prediction: Republican John McCain will be the next U.S. president.
Of course, a lot can happen between now and then that could make the above statement ridiculous, but assuming there's no momentous disaster in Iraq, it's hard to see Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama beating McCain.
Put another way, I can't see McCain losing.
So uniting the party, once seen as almost impossible for McCain, is now duck soup. Fractious conservatives are already on side.
The main problem for Democrats is their candidates, Hillary and Obama, both with flaws and potential weaknesses.
First, Hillary. As of this writing, she seems hell-bent on taking her campaign to the floor of the convention in August, risking a fatal split in the party if she can't get her way. As it stands now, whichever side loses a convention fight, a lot of the loser's supporters will likely opt for McCain.
This time last year Hillary and America were persuaded that her nomination would be a coronation. Today that certainty has not only vanished, but shifted to where Obama is now almost a sure thing, even if he doesn't quite have the delegates to give him the majority that even the Clintons would have to accept.
I'd argue that what's likely to sink Hillary is her lying about herself and her record.
Dick Morris, the political guru who helped the Clintons win the U.S. presidency and before that the Arkansas governorship, has compiled a scorecard showing that "Hillary simply cannot tell the truth."
When it comes to the actual presidential campaign, her record of lying would damage her even more than it is hurting her now.
The lie (and no euphemism can disguise it as anything else) that will damage her more than any other is her claim on at least two occasions in 1996 when as First Lady she visited Bosnia, she "landed under sniper fire" and had to "run with our heads down to waiting cars."
Video shows an 8-year-old greeting her and daughter Chelsea with flowers, and no sign of danger. She also claimed Bosnia was too dangerous for the president, so he sent wife and daughter instead. You figure out that whopper.
When caught out, Hillary said she had "misspoke" the truth (whatever that means), forgetting that never in her life has she faced gunfire and that people rarely forget being under sniper fire.
Other "lies" on her resume include claiming she was named after Sir Edmund Hillary for his conquest of Everest in 1953, apparently forgetting she was born, and named, in 1947.
Her lexicon of lies, compiled by Morris, include such as claiming daughter Chelsea was jogging around the World Trade Centre and heard the planes coming in on 9/11 -- a claim refuted by Chelsea, who said she saw it on TV.
In Bill's first run for the White House, Hillary explained she made a killing in the futures market ($100,000 from a $1,000 investment) by reading the Wall Street Journal, which didn't cover the market back then!
She now claims she always opposed NAFTA, when the record shows she enthusiastically supported it. She has said she urged Bill to intervene in Rwanda, which she didn't, and has even claimed to be a life-long Yankees fan.
So it goes. Big, small or in between, Hillary adjusts truth to the needs of the moment. As a consequence, polls show her trustworthiness at about half of McCain's or Obama's.
As for Obama vs. McCain, apart from his dubious handling of the "Pastor Disaster" -- Rev. Jeremiah Wright's anti-Americanism and blatant racism -- there are unknown aspects of Obama still to be revealed. He has answered the racist issue in Pastor Wright's rantings, but has yet to deal with the "patriotism" factor.
When Obama declared he can no more abandon Pastor Wright than he can repudiate his white grandmother, he is not being fair. Or honest. Obama had no choice in his grandmother; Pastor Wright was his personal choice.
McCain has been around so long that he is who he is, and there are few surprises left. He admits to being an "imperfect" human being, who all his life has sought to serve his country -- a claim that few deny.
Even Obama calls him "a hero." And he is prepared to co-operate with Democrats, if he feels it'll benefit his country. (Pity we in Canada have few politicians like that).
Most significant, perhaps, is that McCain is personally liked by many Democrats, many independents, blacks and Latinos. Polls show that 22% of Hillary's or Obama's declared supporters intend to vote for McCain if their candidate isn't the Democratic nominee.
As yet, the public knows little about what Obama believes, or what he would do. While, as he says, "Words are important," so are policies - which he hasn't yet outlined, and which will be analyzed when he does.
What happens in Iraq could derail the McCain campaign, which right now looks solid. McCain even looks more presidential and certainly fits the commander-in-chief role better than any rival.
If Obama were president, it's likely that certain nasty regimes would "test" American and Obama's resolve - as the Soviet Union tested Jimmy Carter in Africa, Latin America and South America. (Carter failed the test).
Before that, Khrushchev tested the young Jack Kennedy in Vienna and Cuba. (Khrushchev failed.)
No one risked testing Ronald Reagan. But Clinton was tested -- and failed to recognize Osama bin Laden as a terrorist, or the 1993 World Trade Centre bombing as a terrorist act. Ditto the embassy bombings in Africa, and the attack of the USS Cole.
If McCain becomes president, no stable country is likely to "test" him. North Korea, maybe, but that country is run by a fruitcake.
If for no other, this seems sufficient reason to hope McCain is the next U.S. president, which, barring the unforeseen, I can't see him missing.
Let's please refrain from such comparisons. There is no need to further feed his already over inflated ego and delusions of grander.
He may very well take this race in a walk. But he'll do it w/out me. No, I'm not going to vote against him. I'm just not going vote for him. I will see if there are any bona fide conservatives for lower office I can help out, but I'm not holding out too much hope there either. [sigh]
Put a third way, I haven't seen McCain in weeks. He's actually playing it smart just sitting back letting those two go at each other. Not that that's going to bring me around to him, but it is rather humorous.
Our colleges have been brain washing and graduateing new socialists from republican familys for decades.. The republican party could care less..
Ths author is high as a kite..
Hillary will withdraw from the race prior to the convention. Obama will be the nominee of a united party that wants to stop a third Bush term and end the war in Iraq. The Reps are nominating its maverick as its standard bearer and the oldest man ever nominated to be President for the first time. Imagine the position of the Reps down the ticket who will have to take positions on issues like immigration and global warming that are opposite of McCain's. The Rep base will be far from energized in turning out for McCain, especially conservatives.
The Dem internal battles during the primaries will actually help them because they have been able to set up the infrastructure to get out the vote in the general election. Their voters are motivated and energized.
If the economy continues to go south and the insurgents in Iraq stage something similar to a Tet Offensive, we may see a landslide the likes of which this country has not seen since Goldwater.
I spell quality with a “K”. So, out of 275 million people, this is the best that we can get?
If McCain wins with out conservative support, then he can tell conservatives to go to hell and mean it. They will have zero influence in his administration.
Conservatives are so dumb they don't even know how the RINOs do it.
In General elections RINOS always support all Republicans ... even the conservative ones. They man the phone banks, and canvas door to door. They donate money and work for the election of anyone with an R by his or her name.
After they elect a Republican they ask for his or her vote on a few RINO issues. And strange as it may seem to conservatives, they tend to get them. People who work hard to get a conservative elected have a lot of clout with that conservative. So here and there at first the conservative votes the RINO way. HE OWES THE RINOs BIG TIME!!!
Then at the next election the Conservatives are mad as hell because the former conservative voted RINO a few of times. So the now Semi Conservative gets lots of nasty mail saying the conservatives are not going to vote for him this time.
But come the second campaign here are the RINOs doing all they can to get the "semi conservative" reelected. And of course they do. The now former conservative owes the conservatives nothing and owes the RINOS everything. So when the RINOS ask.. the RINOs get. And one more Conservative has become a former Conservative.
Meanwhile the conservatives are planning a third party because the Damned RINOs own the Republican party.
Economy really tanks and the dems promise all kinds of solutions all the lies etc will be forgotten
It wasn’t totally safe—after all, Ron Brown’s plane crashed 9 days later just over the border in Croatia. But the situation was much different: Hillary had never said she was going to co-operate with the special prosecutor investigating Bill Clinton’s crimes.
I guess the author forgot about the Lebanon fiasco, and the 240 or so Americans killed.
Reagan didn't stay the course and within 4 months we were out of Lebanon. Hezbolla is still there. - tom
For myself, and I think most other conservatives, that is enough of a reason.
If you wish to argue I am not as purely conservative as you, then fine. Maybe you are. I don't care. My interest is voting for who is better for the country, not in impressing anyone about my credentials as a "true" conservative.
If you want to argue that I will then be responsible for all the lousy decisions McCain will inevitably make in office, then I will reject your criticism unless you show good reason to think Obama or Clinton would have faired better.
Someone's been hittin' the crack pipe.
You've forgotten about McCain-Feingold. Because of it the MSM will be ripping MacQueeg a new cornchute well before the election. By the time they've finished with him, people will believe he breathes fire, has three heads and seven breasts and eats live puppies for breakfast.
What about judicial appointments? Is McCain not more likely to appoint judges, who will follow the Constitution? (Not a rhetorical question.)
Yep, with the Dem crossovers McCain has no need of us conservatives.
Bye bye Republican party.
Good point!
All this nonsense about the MSM destroying McCain is laughable.. sure they will try, but this is 2008 folks... and McCain is hardly some toe the line guy. They can’t reinvent hillbilly and fauxbama has no clothes.
And when their are riots in the streets during the DNC convention, the reporting of that and its fallout will trump any editorial page nonsense.
I swear there are some serious naybobs of negatism around here these days.. and needlessly so. Running around scared over the MSM is laughable.. this isn’t 1992 folks and its time to realise it.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.