What a Long Strange Race It's Been

realclearpolitics.com ^ | March 29, 2008 | James Ceaser

[neverdem]

If Americans selected their president by the party they preferred, no one doubts that a Democrat would be moving into the White House next January. Since their sweep of Congress in the 2006 midterm elections, Democrats have been enjoying what, under different circumstances, they would likely be calling a surge. From a position of parity in partisan identification in 2005, with each party having about a third of the electorate, Democrats have opened up an impressive five-point advantage (32.5% to 27.7%, according to Gallup). Republicans have been in a free fall. This year's nomination races have also revealed a clear enthusiasm gap between the parties. Far more voters participated in Democratic than in Republican primaries (by nearly a 3 to 2 margin, during the period when both races were undecided), and Democratic candidates have dramatically outraised and outspent their Republican counterparts. Though wealthier voters still lean Republican, the GOP is rapidly becoming the poor man's party, its fundraisers reduced to watching in amazement as Barack Obama's internet cash cow keeps giving and giving.

Unfortunately for Democrats, however, the election of the president is not a contest between generic party labels. As Alexander Hamilton observed in The Federalist, it is "the choice of the person to whom so important a trust [is] to be confided." This fact gives John McCain a fighting chance. And fighting is what McCain knows best.

The Reagan Legacy

Since Ronald Reagan ran for the presidency 28 years ago, all of the presidential elections have been fought within the same ideological framework. Candidates have come and gone, party fortunes have risen and fallen, and the world order has undergone a complete transformation; but the basic structure of the debate between liberalism and conservatism has remained unchanged. During the past two elections, the two camps have dug in,...

[Grunthor]

“And fighting is what McCain knows best.”

Only when it calls for sneaking up from behind. Only when it calls for pi$$ing on your base. Only when it calls for cutting deals with the enemy.

He knows THAT better than anyone.

[EternalVigilance]

The “strangeness” is far from over.

God is testing all of us, to see where we really stand.

[MNJohnnie]

From a position of parity in partisan identification in 2005, with each party having about a third of the electorate, Democrats have opened up an impressive five-point advantage (32.5% to 27.7%, according to Gallup).

Highly misleading statement. That is significantly down from Fall 2006 when they had around a 12 point lead in party identification. We are actually moving back toward parity since the Democrats took control of Congress.

[x]

For the Democrats, besides Bill Clinton, the four non-incumbent nominees of this period were Walter Mondale, Michael Dukakis, Al Gore, and John Kerry. This is a solid, experienced group of public servants, each of whom had a strong claim to be his party's standard bearer.

Uh ... whatever ... I guess anybody can be the Democrat's standard bearer.

Dukakis at least managed to be a governor for several terms, though he left his state in a mess, but the others didn't have much going for them, especially Kerry.

I guess just about anybody can be a Senator, for that matter.

[NoGrayZone]

“God is testing all of us, to see where we really stand.”

It most certainly seems He has drawn the line in the sand.

[NoGrayZone]

Hi Johnny!!! Haven’t seen you in some time, how are you??

[MNJohnnie]

Good. I was visiting eeevil conservative in Atlanta. Just got back

[NoGrayZone]

Nice!!! Hope you had a great time, welcome back!!!! =)

[A_perfect_lady]

Or was it because these women found the younger, kinetic Obama a more attractive figure, able to command them with more audacity?

Ding ding ding. We have a winner.

[AZLiberty]

Although liberalism fits [Obama] like a glove--National Journal rates his voting record the most liberal among current senators--his whole campaign has sought to transcend the realm of general ideas.

Say what?

[AZLiberty]

Many will wonder in the years to come why so many professional women and female students so readily deserted her. Was it because they chose to rise above identity politics and judge the candidates on what they took to be individual merit (even while African-Americans remained staunchly attached to one of their own)? Or was it because, in the deepest recess of most liberals' souls, race trumps gender? Or was it because these women found the younger, kinetic Obama a more attractive figure, able to command them with more audacity?

Or was it because the long campaign forced them to recognize the reality of the Clintons: lying, scheming trailer trash who valued nothing other than power?

[AZLiberty]

There's so much in this article:

The Democratic nomination race could be heading for a stalemate in which each candidate could boast a rightful claim to the nomination, Obama for having won more of the elected delegates, Hillary for having won all the large states (except Obama's home state of Illinois) and more votes near the end. In this Democratic version of an imperfect tie, both candidates would appeal to an aspect of the democratic principle, and both would have a strong case. The adjudication of the merit of these two democratic arguments would then fall to the least democratically selected delegates in the process: the party's superdelegates. If Democrats cannot accept this venue of last appeal, or if they run into legal problems in Michigan or Florida--there is always the Supreme Court!

Hah!