Posted on 03/24/2008 9:14:19 AM PDT by maquiladora
Yawn...
I’ve seen Nasrallah yakking on al-Jazeera...he’s always spouting crap like this. You’re next, buddy.
Target list: Nasrallah, Baitallah, Dadallah, Hizballah, Ramallah, the Iranian ayatollah and the rest of the mullahs. They’ve all got ‘Allah’ in ‘em!
interesting historical perspective, i don’t disagree. kill enough of the warrior class and we may see that kind of cultural shift . . . i just don’t think we are there . . . yet.
how bout’ we work from the bottom up. 1) If Hezbollah does retaliate in a meaningful way and it does kick off again on the northern israel/southern lebanon front, Israel has reportedly told Syria thru back channels it doesn’t get off the hook this time. while i seriously doubt this means regime change in Damascus (better the devil you know then the one you don’t), i think some limited involvement with syria is out of the question. And then what happens to Hamas - I think it is very reasonable to assume that if the balloon goes up with Hez (and possibly Syria), Israel goes into Gaza to clean up that rats nest.
2) Iran is then put in a tough spot. It will be just sitting there watching as its 3 proxies get dismantled. What to do - sit and watch or join in. These mullahs don’t play with a full deck, even if they know they will get creamed - they may just not be able to help themselves particularly when they see the few allies they have being blown to smithereens.
3) China has very real interests in Iran with respect to the oil industry. not saying China would directly intervene, but there are certainly parts of the world they have influence on (Taiwan, NK, etc) and they could serve as distractions to try to take some heat off Iran
I see #1 as almost a foregone conclusion - maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow or next week or month . . . but eventually. Depending on the mindset of the mullahs in Tehran #2, while less probable, is a possibility. With regard to #3, i doubt it, but Iran does sit on a lot of oil and resource wars aren’t just a thing of the past
I thought the Syrians killed him...
That’s the prevailing theory. That a faction of Syrians who don’t like Assad, or his dealings with “certain elements”, having failed to assasinate Assad, killed Mugniyah.
Geography plays some role. Iran is on the other side of Iraq from Israel. Iraq is on the other side of Jordan from Israel. So Iran is a long way away from Israel, which is why it uses proxies like Hezbollah. China, for its part, is on the other side of Afghanistan from all of the above.
Thus, geography alone limits even the potential involvement of many major players.
Faced with major geographical hurdles, China can more reasonably rationalize its trade interests with the U.S. versus why it would want to go up against the American war machine. China has its own problems with Islamic radicals in Xinjiang, too...so risking a military confrontation with its chief trade partner, the U.S., over some Iranian mullahs is hardly high on the list of vacation topics in Beijing.
And Iran, for its part, is already encircled by President Bush’s moves in Afghanistan and Iraq. That’s a poor military position from which to *start* a war with Israel.
Syria isn’t exactly surrounded by friends, either. It’s lost Lebanon to Bush, then had to sit idly by as Israel sent its armor wherever it wanted, then had to suffer the indignity of an Israeli air strike on its most guarded asset...its enrichment facility...then it watched as Mugniyah was murdered inside Damascus itself with a car-bomb.
From all of the above, Syria and Iran “know” that their Russian air defenses can’t stop Israeli aircraft. They can reasonably estimate the U.S. stealth aircraft would be an order of magnitude more difficult to even see, much less stop.
And each is encircled. Syria could be quickly invaded by U.S., NATO, or Israeli armor. Damascus would fall faster than Baghdad in 2003. Does Assad want to spend his remaining days hiding in a spider hole ala Saddam Hussein?!
What will Iran do? Iran is encircled by the U.S.
Is Tehran going to loft missiles over U.S. forces in order to hit Israel?! Are Iranian Ayatollahs really saying “lets start a war with Israel while we are surrounded by Americans?!”
Someone hasn’t thought this through.
Total war benfits the U.S.
Escalation of the current wars (on terror, in Iraq, in Afghanistan, in the wider ME, in Africa) benefits the U.S.
Really, the only viable strategy that our foes can latch onto is to maintain a slow bleed in very limited form on U.S. forces, combined with agressive propaganda activities in the U.S. news media designed to sway American public opinion away from the current checkmate.
Americans have to be convinced to walk away from a superior military position by choice...because American opponents have insufficient military resources to force change through any other avenue.
For what it’s worth, i agree, obviously, that total war benefits no one but the U.S.
Syria and Iran would be foolhardy to voluntarily embark on any such endeavors.
But what if the choice isn’t theirs to make? Hezbollah could light off a conflict that could drag Syria and Iran in.
Olmert barely hangs on to a loose coalition govt and enjoys uglier public support #s than Bush, primarily b/c he is seen as weak, particularly when it comes to security related matters. If Hez retaliates in such a way that stirs the Israeli public, Olmert may have no choice but to respond heavy handedly or get booted out of office.
And as I’ve mentioned earlier, its been reported that clear messages have been relayed to Assad that if Hez attacks they won’t get off the hook this time. What does that mean? Maybe all it would be is symbolic strikes on a couple of regime targets and force concentrations along the border. Does Assad just sit there and take that? If he’s smart - yes.
All i’m saying is this has the potential to get out of control.
I see little danger, especially since the greater the escalation, the more that the U.S. benefits.
Faced with the above, Syria will sit out. Hezbollah will be hung out to dry alone.
Nor will Iran save Hamas.
Though it would greatly benefit the U.S. if both tried.
Here’s a problem for Syria and Iran - If both their proxies go bye-bye and Israel, at the same time, decides to smack Syria on the hand overtly (unlike the nuke facility strike), how do they respond? If they do absolutely zero - much face is lost. Launch everything they’ve got - stupid b/c that plays into U.S./Israel’s hands. Launch limited symbolic retalitory strikes - i think this is the most likely course of action. However, I think all the U.S. and Israel are looking for is an excuse . . .
What can they do to “save face” other than to die?
They have no effective air defenses. They have no ICBM defenses.
They are surrounded.
They aren’t just facing Israel, either. The U.S. is there in force. In fact, NATO is there in Afghanistan and Turkey, too.
It’s a *MIGHTY* can a whupa$$ just waiting to be opened.
You might as well be telling the man in the electric chair that the only way he can save face is to pull the lever himself rather than continuing to wait for the Governor to call.
In this case, running out the clock on the Bush Administration is about the most that Syria, Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, and Al Qaeda can do.
“running out the clock on the Bush Administration is about the most that Syria, Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, and Al Qaeda can do.”
and i think the bush admin is going to do all they can to force their hands before the clock runs. i don’t suspect nabbing 13 Brit sailors or making mock attack runs at our vessels entering the straits is going to fly anymore
From now until at least the middle of next January, the Bush Administration and Israel have free reign to strike anywhere, anyone, anything as they desire...without fear of political, economic, or military repercussions.
And they will, though the strikes may not be what the public has been led to believe are coming.
19:24 French jetliner searched at Beirut airport after bomb scare (AP)
Sounds like a domestic gone bad....
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1206446102024&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull
sounds like it. thought it was worth mentioning considering i’ve heard postulated elsewhere that even the French could be the target of Hezbollah retaliation (thought goes that Hezbollah has killed French citizens in past, and Imad may have been assassinated in response by the French)
Anytime Now,,,Boom!...:0/
...promises, promises...ya big tease!
(agreed)
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