Posted on 03/12/2008 6:45:47 AM PDT by Diana in Wisconsin
From my statistics courses, the sample population should be at least 1000 (for a universe this big), AND randomly selected from the universe (ie US population) being tested.
This survey only says that Milwaukee has a lot of dirty sluts. It cannot be applied to the country as a whole, period.
However, Journalists have virtually no real knowledge at all except how to put words together; so to them a survey is a survey.
Milwaukee is not a good sample for WI, let alone for the nation as a whole.... its almost as bad depending on which neighborhood/school they used in milwaukee as going into compton and using 800 folks from 1 school there as your sample.
This is so stupid it’s ridiculous! Kids KNOW how to prevent/reduce their chances of getting STDs. In the back seat of the car they just don’t CARE!!
“If there are any PhD statisticians out there, they can do the calculation. It is computer driven but I do not have the program or the knowledge to do the math. It is very easy to do though if you are trained.”
You don’t need a statistician for this. The problem is called “extrapolating from a non-representative sample”. If you survey a bunch of convicted felons and find that 30% have stabbed people, it’s not valid to conclude that 30% of US males have stabbed someone.
Agreed and point well made. What I wanted to know was how large a sammple would be needed to give assurance of legitimacy. In addition, as was pointed out, one needs to define demographic groups and do a multivaritae analysis. What I mean here is to put all the information “in the pot” so to speak and see what matters. For example, if one studies any observation and compares it with one element of a demographic group, the answer may not be correct. For example, if one studies an event related to “maleness”, you need also to include all (or as many as possible) of the variables that maleness entails. Examples would be age, weight, race, conditioning etc. One may find out that an observation associated with maleness is really associated with age. Am I being clear? Sometimes I am not as clear as I would want to be.
I hope this post NEVER goes away. The Naked Communist:
http://www.freerepublic.com/forum/a3a3b9b364f83.htm
“What I wanted to know was how large a sammple would be needed to give assurance of legitimacy.”
Actually, the sample number can be fairly small and still give accurate predicitons. For instance you can make a fairly accurate national poll with only a few thousand samples. The problem is getting a sample that is representative of the population and not skewed. A representative sample is much more important than a large sample size.
I’ve spent time talking with Milwaukee social workers that deal with teen pregnancies and “age of consent” issues. Milwaukee does not prosecute clear cut cases of statutory rape even when involving incest and and wide age spreads between partners. The volume is just way too high to be handled and the judicial attitude is too lax — “it’s the way they are” type of attitudes. It’s a combination of free for all and predatory environment - hopefully not reflective of a national trend.
Or maybe just to make money...
No.
Making money was NOT the only goal.
The facts are clear.
The evidence has been around at least for 40 years of where this was headed. They’ve almost achieved all their goals. Almost. The rest is close on the near horizon.
It is a national trend. I had a friend who ran for county attorney on the promise that he would prosecute sex crimes and clean up the county. Within weeks he had more cases than his entire staff could handle if they devoted his entire term and did nothing else. He gave up and said “This is what we are.”
Closer to 7 or 8.
Click the keyword STD
Perfectly stated. :)
I do not believe this statistic.
Count me as among those that would bet hard money on a guess that these figures are highly unrepresentative of the whole.
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