Posted on 03/12/2008 3:08:10 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
When John McCain begins his search for a vice presidential running mate, he'll quickly come upon a sad fact. He wants a candidate who will be seen as a plausible president. That's criterion number one. He also wants someone who won't subtract from his campaign in any serious way. That's criterion number two. The unfortunate truth is that few Republicans meet these simple criteria. McCain doesn't have much of a pool to choose from.
But his selection matters enormously, all the more because of his age. McCain will turn 72 on the eve of the Republican convention this summer. Choosing a running mate is the first major decision that a presidential nominee makes. And the nominee is judged by the quality of his pick and even by the smoothness of his selection process. So McCain had better choose well.
He has the right idea in mind. McCain thinks three vice presidential picks from the recent past were wise: Republican Dick Cheney in 2000 and Democrats Joe Lieberman in 2000 and Al Gore in 1992. They were nationally known political heavyweights who passed the most important test. They were accepted almost instantly as ready to replace the president if necessary. And they had no significant drawbacks.
The list of plausible presidents is short. Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson, Tom Ridge, and Joe Lieberman qualify. That's about it. There are a number of popular Republican governors--Charlie Crist of Florida, Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota, Mark Sanford of South Carolina, Haley Barbour of Mississippi--but they fall short of Cheney-Lieberman-Gore stature. It's not their fault, but it's nonetheless true.
So how about Lieberman in 2008? He's a pal of McCain, a brave backer of the war in Iraq, and now the most prominent Democratic supporter of McCain's presidential bid. He would surely enhance McCain's appeal to independents and moderate Democrats. He's a political adult.
But he's no Zell Miller. Lieberman is a liberal on domestic issues, including abortion. McCain already has trouble with conservatives and picking a Democrat would make things worse. Lieberman would probably subtract more votes from the McCain ticket than he'd add.
So would Giuliani and Ridge. True, Giuliani was a hero of 9/11 as mayor of New York, and Ridge, a former Pennsylvania governor, was President Bush's first homeland security chief. But both are pro-choice on abortion and would horrify social conservatives, an indispensable part of the Republican coalition. Giuliani or Ridge might prompt a third party pro-life presidential challenger.
Fred Thompson, the ex-senator from Tennessee and now a TV actor, is also a close friend of McCain. If he'd run a more spirited presidential campaign of his own this year, he'd be the obvious pick for running mate. But his campaign was dreary and disappointing. McCain needs someone more vibrant and upbeat.
That leads to Romney. He has run a vigorous national campaign and been vetted by the press and his opponents for the Republican nomination. These are very strong pluses. A pick who produces unhelpful surprises, as Geraldine Ferraro did in 1984 (her husband's business deals) and Dan Quayle did in 1988 (his National Guard duty), is exactly what McCain doesn't need. Romney is a known quantity.
Romney has three other add-ons. He's acceptable to conservatives and especially to social conservatives, who disproportionately volunteer as ground troops in Republican presidential campaigns. He's unflappable in debates. With the downturn worsening, the economy may surpass national security as the top issue of the campaign. And after years of success as a big time player in the global economy, Romney understands how markets work. He could shore up McCain's admitted weakness on economic issues.
Romney has allies in the Bush wing of the Republican party. President Bush favors him as McCain's veep. Jeb Bush, the former Florida governor, preferred Romney over McCain in the primaries, but never endorsed him publicly. Karl Rove, the president's political strategist, has hinted that he considers Romney to be McCain's best running mate.
Is there a downside to Romney? Possibly. It's not his Mormonism. He lost the nomination to McCain, but religion wasn't the reason. As a corporate turnaround artist, he rescued companies, sometimes by laying off workers. When he ran for the Senate from Massachusetts in 1994, the incumbent, Teddy Kennedy, raised the layoff issue with punishing effect. No doubt Democrats would use it again, and it might have resonance if a recession hits and unemployment is increasing.
Mike Huckabee's name is bound to come up in the veepstakes, since he's now run nationally and been vetted. According to Rove, he would "double" McCain's trouble with conservatives. Both foreign policy and economic conservatives would scream bloody murder if McCain chose the Huckster.
Presidential nominees once tried to balance their ticket with someone who'd helped win a state they might otherwise lose. This hasn't entirely gone out of fashion. Governor Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota is often mentioned in this regard. Former House member John Kasich and ex-trade representative and budget director Rob Portman, both from Ohio, are too.
McCain has also been advised, at least by the media, to pick a much younger person for vice president. Governor Matt Blunt of Missouri, 37, and a handful of others have had their names trotted out. Some of them have impressive credentials. Blunt, for example, is an Annapolis graduate and a Naval Reservist called to active duty after 9/11.
But I don't believe the option of choosing a running mate for purely political reasons is open to McCain--not during wartime, anyway. His strong suit against Barack Obama, his likeliest Democratic opponent, or even against Hillary Clinton, is experience. In fact, Clinton has set up Obama to be attacked by McCain on this front.
Her TV ad raising doubts about Obama's readiness to be president was critical to her victories last week in the Ohio and Texas primaries. She also said in a campaign appearance: "Senator McCain will bring a lifetime of experience to the campaign. I will bring a lifetime of experience [to the White House] and Senator Obama will bring a speech he gave in 2002. I think that is a significant difference." In Obama's 2002 speech, he opposed the invasion of Iraq. One can envision her comment in a McCain TV ad zinging Obama.
McCain would throw away the experience issue if he named a much younger running mate or someone without national stature or a background in world affairs. Obama's response could be devastating: "If experience is so important, why did you pick a running mate who has so little, indeed less than I do?"
Romney thus appears to have the best ratio of virtues to drawbacks. But there's just one problem: McCain doesn't like him. Just how important compatibility is--that is something McCain will have to decide.
A conservative....a rare commodity....
I, personally, don't have a problem with Mr. Romney's religion and I agree he has financial experience that would enhance the McCain campaign.
My favorite would be Fred, however, I was VERY disappointed in his campaign. Also, there is not that much difference between McCain's age and Fred's. Romney would be better for that reason as well.
As for McCain not liking Romney, I can't really think of many the old tu#d does like. To my thinking, it's a plus that McCain doesn't like him! It tells me Romney is probably a pretty decent fella.
I hope your post is parody.
if Romney or Rudy is VP, I won’t just stay home, I will vote against them.
I like Romney.
I like Hunter.
But neither did well at all in the primary competitions.
Romney is the best choice.
Unless McCain picks somebody well to the right of him, he’s not getting my vote. At this point, the latest flap over Peter King has me so mad at the Leprechaun from Hell that I have no intention of supporting him. He is despicable.
Let the Rats take over. American needs to be reminded of how aweful Jimmy Carter really was.
I hate to bring up rumors, but can anyone from Florida tell us more about the whispers on Crist’s loafer lightness?
I’m a Fred supporter, but Sanford is my #1 choice for VP, period.
agree on Condi. I would also vote against her.
Pence, is not overly agressive, so he won't over shadow McCain, something McCain's ego couldn't take.
Pence is a former talk show host, a great debater, fairly conservative. I say fairly because his idea on illegal immigrants is close to Mccains in fact I called Pence's plan "turn style Immigration ".
Illegals would report to a point of entry or processing , pay a fine and step back into the country.
Yeah its amnesty, I don't support it, but I think he compliments McCain and thats what this discussion is about.
Oh, I agree. Crist is definitely out in my opinion. I honestly cannot support McCain on his own, he really has to show me that he’s willing to take some of these issues that are not just conservative issues, but deeply important issues of America’s future, such as out of control spending or the illegal invasion. If he’s just going to be a “moderate” then I cannot say I will support him at this time.
That said, Romney would be a good choice, for me at least.
Let’s just say Crist will make Larry Craig look like John Wayne if he ends up in national office. A massive embarrassment just waiting to happen.
The only one that meets any conservative criteria on this list is Thompson, I will make an exception to my remark for Tom Ridge, not knowing much about him. Mitt, Rudy and Joe are not conservatives and will hurt McCain more than he is already hurting in the eyes of conservatives. I find it interesting that Duncan Hunter's name isn't on the list, as well as several other people I could think of.
I’d vote for Crist before I’d vote for Romney, and that is not a compliment.
Ridge is a pro-abort Catholic, a 100% no-go.
there shouldn’t even be a debate...I can’t think of anyone who can come close.
Oh god no.
Please don’t raise the gay rumors about Crist!
That will only make it more likely that McCain picks him!
I for one am sick of this secure the borders first dodge.
“Would I have a problem with it, were it to occur? No.”
I don't care if he is going to have a problem with someone else doing it. Is he going to pursue it or not. More double talk.
Is the guy going to nail the employers of illegals currently here or just in the future???
Is he going to use the law to take jobs and benefits from these invaders so they leave or not?
It is a simple concept.
Joe is also “another old guy” so you don’t have to worry about him.
I’m more “Catholic” than he is and I haven’t even practiced in years.
ROFL...can you see his legacy. McCain, the apologetic President. The only Nominee who bashes his own party. Pathetic.
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