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3. Israeli airstrike on Syria: Israel's airstrike deep in Syria last October was reported to have targeted a nuclear-related facility, but details have remained sketchy and some experts have been skeptical that Syria had a covert nuclear program. An alternative scenario floating in Israel and Lebanon is that the real purpose of the strike was to force Syria to switch on the targeting electronics for newly received Russian anti-aircraft defenses. The location of the strike is seen as on a likely flight path to Iran (also crossing the friendly Kurdish-controlled Northern Iraq), and knowing the electronic signatures of the defensive systems is necessary to reduce the risks for warplanes heading to targets in Iran.

Interesting, if true.

That's an awfully long, dangerous flight, though. I'm not sure where in Iran all the targets would be, but much of Iran would be near or beyond the combat range of the F-15, especially with a full air-to-ground payload. This is particularly true if the Israelis avoid Jordanian and Peninsular Arab airspace. Without refueling, they'd mostly be limited to the northern reaches of Iran west and southwest of the Caspian sea.

To make it any further, they would have to rely on US tanker support. Israel does have a few tankers, but I'd hate to be the guy to have to fly them over Syria.

There are certainly Freepers who know this stuff better than I do, but it seems to me that while the Israelis can certainly hit targets in Iran, the damage they could do would be limited by the long and dangerous flight they'd have to make to get there. Also, unless Syria's air defenses can be neutralized, either militarily or politically, sustained combat operations are probably out of the question. Crossing Syria once seems risky; crossing it daily looks like inviting disaster.

That begs the question of whether the limited number of sorties they'd be able to fly over Iran would be worth the political liability they bring to the table. We have a lot of allies much closer to Iran who would be reluctant at best to be involved in a coalition with Israel. I have to say I'm skeptical of any joint operations with Israel this time around.