Posted on 03/07/2008 4:34:02 AM PST by SJackson
| McCain Turns Purple States Red? |
Much of the current analysis of the presidential campaign battle is missing the point. All of the media attention is focused on the Hillary Clinton vs. Barack Obama heavyweight fight as if it will decide the election. But it seems observers in Washington, D.C. haven’t yet sensed the undercurrent running in the country, which for the first time in four years has turned and is running the Republican’s direction. The election map is changing. And with the changes, it will offer a totally new red/blue-state picture when the dust clears next November.
A brand new poll commissioned by the National Campaign Fund shows that McCain can win California. The findings show, if Barack Obama is the nominee, he is in trouble on two issues in California. For Hillary Clinton, one issue in particular poses a problem for her in that state. First, the poll, which was written by Adam Geller of the respected National Research Inc., shows that both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are stuck under the magic 50% mark against John McCain in California.
The poll concludes: “when voters learn of Obama’s support of licenses to illegal aliens, they become far less likely to support him. They are also far less likely to support Obama when they learn of his support for more spending, to be funded by higher taxes.” McCain puts California in play for Republicans for the first time since 1988, or 20 years.
Hillary, likewise, has a big problem in California. As a state with a large retired population, “when voters learn the details of Clinton’s failed health care proposal -- which she has tried to resurrect -- they become far less likely to support her. These messages are especially effective among swing voters,” Gellar’s poll says.
The incessant fighting amongst Democrats is beginning to take its toll: “Democrats are showing the signs of split due to the contentious primary between Clinton and Obama. McCain is benefiting, receiving a decent number of votes from Obama favorables versus Hillary, and from Hillary favorables versus Obama,” the Gellar poll shows.
Hillary won the Democratic primary in California and in Texas relying heavily on Hispanic voters. These voters are much friendlier to McCain than Obama. McCain has traditionally done well with Hispanic voters in Arizona, his home state. Hillary Clinton’s Texas victory has even been called by one political pundit the “triumph of the red necks and Hispanics over the inner city blacks that have come to dominate Democratic primaries.”
In addition to California, New Jersey, Oregon, Washington and Connecticut look like blue states that could easily shift to the maverick westerner McCain.
Another undercurrent that is running against any Democratic candidate is the electorate’s perception of Iraq. According to a survey by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center: “Public views of the military effort in Iraq have become more positive. The results suggest that, barring another reversal, Democrats' ability to use the war as a political weapon could be somewhat curtailed, particularly when the general election campaign begins.”
McCain is unique in that he criticized President Bush’s strategy when it wasn’t working, and he advocated the surge in troops. When President Bush adopted the McCain strategy of a surge, Iraq news turned more positive. These opinions track more closely with the views of a majority of Americans, and the Democrat contenders’ position of immediate withdrawal is only popular with the hard left in their party.
Finally, Hillary Clinton’s attacks on Obama’s experience and foreign policy expertise are starting to take a toll. Even if Obama wins the nomination as his delegate lead suggests, Hillary Clinton’s attacks will damage Obama for the general election and telegraph a similar strategy that will be adopted by McCain in the fall.
The longer this bloodletting continues in the Democratic Party, the less likely either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama will go onto the White House as president.
I am here in California, and illegal aliens are a HUGE issue here. plus, many Hispanics will not vote for a black for President.
McShamnesty is more blue than purple, imo.
He is more red than Hillobama though. That’s all that counts.
What really counts is we have three bozos running for the presidency. Two military hating socialists and one liberal RINOthat follows the liberal line much to often.
How can a Reagan conservative support whole heartedly any of these three?
No one is asking you to support anyone “whole hardedly”. Just go out on election day and vote for McCain. If you can’t do that then stay home and endure the consequences for the next four (probably eight)years. Pretty simple, really.
As more Americans face the reality of pulling out of a war we are winning, Iraq will become a huge negative for Obama.
Hello Joe! As a “Reagan Conservative”, you can start by doing what Reagan did. He made his case for his positions and if he didn’t win, he supported the one closest to him, i.e., the GOP candidate. Reagan WAS a pragmatist. He was not a whiner who ran away crying when he didn’t get everything he wanted.
Obama is limited by the finite number of nuts he can draw to his cult. Plus he has to somehow convince the democrat racists to vote for him. And hillary is by far the most disliked woman in America. She is incapable of fixing that.
If we had a bona-fide conservative running with a positive message, the election results would rival or surpass Reagan’s win in 1984.
McCain is stealing a page from Rove’s playbook. Convince Dems that blue states are ‘in play’. It got Bush elected in ‘04. Bush’s camp was able to convince the media that New Jersey was in play and Cheney flew to Hawaii to throw off Kerry. Very fun and tricky.
Headline: McCain turns Red States Black and Blue
I am never impressed with Democrat infighting.
Look, I’ll probably in the end hold my nose and pull the lever for McLame. I can bitch obout the lousy selection though.
Correct, except that the consequences will last more than 8 years, thanks to things like Supreme Court appointments and degradation of our military. There's really no choice but to vote for McCain.
“How can a Reagan conservative support whole heartedly any of these three?”
I know I can’t. That’s why I think Republicans and not Democrats should draft Al Gore. He’s more conservative than all three.
All this means is that, no matter who wins, we’ll have Democrat in the Whitehouse.
I think Republicans and not Democrats should draft Al Gore. He’s more conservative than all three.
I’m sure you would still think that way when he doubled your taxes to pay for a cure for global warming.
That would be okay with me. I buy and sell carbon credits.
This decision came as an extensive campaign of lies about Prop 187 was in full stride. Prop 187 hurt the Party the lie fest declared. Heavy weights (Kemp, Bill Bennett, Jeb Bush among them) swore it was true, and at conservatives.
Candidates for statewide office avoided talk radio (at least they refused to go on KSFO until just a few years ago).
I did not verify this but I believe that Republicans have won just four statewide offices -- including Schwarzenkennedy winning governor twice -- in ten years.
Thus Democrat moles run the California Republican Party, IMO.
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