Posted on 03/04/2008 6:05:50 PM PST by OnRiver
BARACK OBAMA, HILLARY CLINTON, JOHN MCCAIN
Could Obama Lose One Quarter of Hillary's Supporters in a General Election?
Daniel Larison notes that in the latest Pew poll, "Obamacans" - those Republicans who are supporting Obama are outnumbered two-to-one by what we would have to call "McCainocrats."
A quarter of Democrats (25%) who back Clinton for the nomination say they would favor McCain in a general election test against Obama. The "defection" rate among Obama's supporters if Clinton wins the nomination is far lower; just 10% say they would vote for McCain in November, while 86% say they would back Clinton.
What’s sad is that this group can be considered the “moderate democrat” vote. It’s insane, when Hillary’s opponent makes her a moderate by comparison. Still, I’ll take any help beating Obama we can get.
“How many Republicans will McCain fail to get I wonder?”
As Obama comes into sharper focus, the lesser of two evils argument will start to pick up some steam. It’s easy for some of us to discount right now, McCain has disappointed us so greatly, but the alternative is horrifying. Obama commits to virtually nothing, but the things he DOES commit to are nightmares. Stopping him should be our great mission, but some are so enjoying Clintons fall that they are, in their own way, assisting him. I believe he will crush McCain if he’s the nominee, which is why the growing number of Clinton supporters leaning towards McCain is great news.
I’m sorry, but I am not buying it. Given the absolute ferver of his supporters, I can’t imagine them being energized to go to the polls if this guy is jobbed out of the nomination, especially the African Americans.
Quote: “Rushs theory is a hypothetical. Hes not looking at the obvious. Dims want this election and will vote straight ticket no matter which of the two remains.”
I agree absolutely that those who turnout to vote will vote straight ticket. But they key is turout. A prolonged fight only to have your candidate lose will not be good for dem turount. Imagine if the shoe were on the other foot and it was between Romney and McCain and McCain won in the last stages of the primaries. Would you be as motivated to vote on election day?
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