For Oregon GOP, only way to go is up

The party that once dominated state politics has fallen into disarray -- its state organization deeply in debt, its membership fractured, its influence at an all-time low.

On the eve of the Dorchester Conference, the yearly gathering of Republicans that opens tonight in Seaside, the party that eked out just a single statewide victory since 2000 finds itself in an anxious period of retrenching and soul-searching.

"It's a wake-up call," says former state labor commissioner Jack Roberts. "We've been spending so much of our time arguing about who is more Republican, and the voters are electing people who aren't Republican at all."

A quick survey of the party's status in Oregon tells the story: Democrats control both chambers of the Legislature. Democrats hold every statewide office. Democrats hold five of seven seats in Congress.

In the nation, only Washington state has had a longer unbroken streak of Democratic governors. The last Republican governor in Oregon, Vic Atiyeh, left office 21 years ago.

"I don't think Oregonians want to be under the dictate of one party," says U.S. Sen. Gordon Smith, one of the few Oregon Republicans to hold a high political office. "We have an obligation to heal ourselves."

The party took a double hit last week, with revelations that the state organization has fallen nearly $300,000 in debt, and that the IRS had placed a lien against it for failing to pay payroll taxes. The $34,000 lien was paid off Thursday, party officials said.

The financial crunch underscored a long slide for the party that accelerated in recent years as President Bush and the national Republican Party became increasingly unpopular. Democrats, meanwhile, watch with barely hidden glee as party leaders struggle to recruit candidates and tap donors.

"The Republican Party is not politically relevant at this point, even to their own elected officials," says Neel Pender, former executive director of the state Democratic Party. Instead of working the mechanics that win elections -- get-out-the-vote drives and voter identification data bases -- it has focused on ideological purity, he says.

Historically, Republicans ruled Oregon politics. Even as Democratic registration rose dramatically in the post-World War II years, Republicans kept statewide offices by fielding a series of maverick politicians with strong bipartisan appeal: Mark Hatfield, Tom McCall, Bob Packwood, Norma Paulus and Dave Frohnmayer.

That changed in the late 1980s and early 1990s with the rise of conservatives in GOP primaries. Typically, the most conservative Republican would win the primary only to fall in the general election. Even though voter registration between the two parties is relatively close -- 764,255 Democrats and 687,898 Republicans, according to the latest report -- Oregon independents have leaned Democratic.

Despite losing statewide races, by 1995 Republicans controlled both houses of the Legislature. But being frozen out of the governorship took its toll.

The Legislature "responds to an agenda, it doesn't create an agenda," says Portland political consultant Dan Lavey, a former GOP legislative aide. "What's really hurt the party over the last 15 years or so is, we have not had a governor to set an agenda."

Lavey and others say the governor also plays a crucial role in raising money, recruiting candidates for other offices and in providing jobs for a large cadre of political operatives.

A pivotal year for Republicans was 2002, when Republican Kevin Mannix narrowly lost the governor's race to Democrat Ted Kulongoski. Massive get-out-the-vote efforts by the Democratic Party and by organized labor played a key role in putting Kulongoski over the top. The same year, Democrats gained a 15-15 tie in the Senate, breaking GOP domination of the Legislature.

Democrats have gone on a tear since then, culminating in the 2006 elections, which were disastrous for Republicans nationwide and gave Democrats nearly total control of the levers of power in Oregon.

Reasons for the recent Republican tailspin abound. Among them: deep emotions among voters about the Iraq war; a failure to nominate moderates; confusion over who calls the shots within the party.

"Here's my question," says Robert Eisinger, a Lewis & Clark College political science professor who follows state politics. "Who's the head of the Republican Party in Oregon? Who's in charge? Never mind who's the official party chairman, but who's the leader?"

Some have tried to pin that label on Smith, but he's not always on the same ideological page with the state party leadership. Some of the most conservative activists have turned hostile toward him for speaking out against the Iraq war and favoring hate crimes legislation. Still, at times he has stepped in.

Smith and Oregon's only Republican congressman, U.S. Rep. Greg Walden, wanted to focus the party leadership on winning elections when they tried but failed to install former House Speaker Lynn Snodgrass, R-Boring, as GOP chairwoman after the 2002 elections. Last week, Smith dispatched one of his aides to take over as executive director of the party after its debt and IRS lien became public.

"I want to be helpful," Smith says about the party's current woes, "but I also can't be the leader of the party machinery either."

Smith and others say the party must do a better job of reaching out to a broader spectrum of voters. "This is a tug of war between principle and pragmatism," Smith says.

Unhappiness with recent election results has prompted movement among party activists. Two groups have formed, both aimed at re-energizing Republican politics in Oregon. One, the Oregon Leadership Roundtable, sought to bring together the disparate elements of the party -- from business-oriented donors to social conservatives One of the group's goals: Reduce the number of divisive primary battles.

Another, the Conservative Majority Project, is looking to shake up the party by boosting candidates who adhere to bedrock Republican values, such as property rights, lower taxes and individual responsibility.

"The ideas behind the Republican Party are majority ideas in Oregon," says the group's founder, Rob Kremer, who made an unsuccessful bid to become state schools superintendent. It's up to the party, Kremer says, to convert that advantage into votes. But too many GOP candidates "run away from those ideas" instead of running on them.

To date, Eugene TV news anchor Rick Dancer is the only Republican besides Smith to announce for a statewide seat -- secretary of state. Republican Party spokeswoman Brianne Hyder says the party will field at least one candidate for attorney general and treasurer by the March 11 filing deadline.

Recruiting candidates, Hyder says, "has been more challenging this round than probably in past seasons. It could be a burnout rate. It could be a number of factors."

Jack Kane, a Republican consultant who has worked with Mannix, sees signs of improvement. He says the party has a good shot at nabbing the 5th Congressional District seat, which is being vacated by Democrat Darlene Hooley. And he was pleased by Dancer's announcement earlier this week.

Additionally, Kane says, presidential candidate Sen. John McCain will run well in Oregon, which should bring in money, support and excitement for Oregon Republicans.

"We hit bottom, and we're coming back," Kane says. "Republicans have literally been depressed. Now they're excited."

Harry Esteve: 503-221-8226; harryesteve@news.oregonian.com; Jeff Mapes: 503-221-8209; jeffmapes@news.oregonian.com www.oregonlive.com/politics

A lot of the posters on here don’t seem to have a good grasp of Oregon politics.

The state’s libs/dems are concentrated in the population centers, but the majority of counties is by far Republican. The problem arose when because of bad leadership in the party (i.e., people who just wanted the press to like them) Dems were just running as blue-dog Dems and beating the squishy republicans (taking advantage of the general national climate as well). So all those outlying counties/districts suddenly weren’t GOP strongholds anymore.

Now that the Dems are in charge, they are trying to shred the initiative system, they have voted not to allow minority reports to come to the floor (thanks to a squishy GOP person voted with dems on rules changes) and they are just writing bills among themselves behind closed doors with no minority input whatsoever. Now that they’re in charge, they’re also trying to do as much damage as possible by creating fake “emergency” sessions in order to get around the oregon constitution which says that the legislature can only meet every other year.

The solution is NOT to moderate the GOP, it’s to stick to conservative principles and win back all those counties where Republicans are the majority. The party leaders are wussies, who will do anything to get some good press. It’s really sad.

The Dorchester Conference is basically known as the squishy republican gathering.

"...That changed in the late 1980s and early 1990s with the rise of conservatives in GOP primaries. Typically, the most conservative Republican would win the primary only to fall in the general election. Even though voter registration between the two parties is relatively close -- 764,255 Democrats and 687,898 Republicans, according to the latest report -- Oregon independents have leaned Democratic..."

You forgot to mention that the liberal or progressives in the state will insult, badger, discount, malign ANYONE who disagree with them.. this includes the elected representatives.

I live in Portland and now I want to find a way to make a living in the Eastern half of the state because libs here are extremely rude if you disagree with any of their positions.. to the point of threats of violence.

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.