Posted on 02/25/2008 6:24:43 PM PST by markomalley
The best you can say about this year's primary season is that it is interesting. Complicated to the point of being inscrutable might be a better description.The Republicans by late 2007 were so dispirited by the Bush legacies that their field of candidates was a has-been and several never-was-or-never-will-be types. The Democrats, smelling a sure win, attracted a pack of at least six qualified candidates eager to make the kill. Their only question was who will win, not will we win.
Fast-forward to today. The Republican primary is over. Sen. McCain is on a mop-up mission to finish off Gov. Huckabee. He even began to campaign against Sen. Clinton a few weeks ago. Sen. Obama began his surge (one of McC's favorite words) and now he is McCain's prime target.
I mentioned several months ago the nagging fear of many longtime Democrats that somehow, against all odds, our party would find a way to lose the un-loseable election. This is no longer a remote possibility at all. Start with the Democratic National Committee, which concocted the "Super Tuesday" primary day, thinking they would pick a winner early. Then, carried away with some arrogant sense of authority they did not have, they told Michigan and Florida that their primary results would not be honored at the convention. This disenfranchised two hugely important swing states.
Thank you, Chairman Dean, for that one.
Then the Obama phenomenon happened. He is a self-made candidate of the highest order. His oratory is outstanding, and he has found a way to "game" the primary process successfully. Most of his speeches are of the high school graduation variety. They are filled with clichés about new beginnings, going forward to a better tomorrow, and are fattened with lofty quotes from John Kennedy, Martin Luther King Jr. and Tom Jefferson.
There is very little substance. His patented stump speech is classic demagoguery: emotional, optimistic and vague enough so that listeners can fill in the blanks with whatever they think they want to hear and imagine that he said it.
Gaming the primaries also required skill. He played his race card well. First, he has convinced too much of the press that any criticisms from Sen. Clinton concerning his inexperience or his lack of specific programs is somehow a "negative attack," but he must be allowed to say anything he wants about her and not be held to any standard for negativity.
Likewise, he has concentrated on winning primaries in states with significant black voting populations that are not going to be won by any Democrat in November, no matter who they are. Alabama, Kansas and Georgia come to mind.
The political lemmings that flock to Obama based on his "momentum" must look inside the numbers. As of today, Clinton has won the popular vote in states with 205 electoral votes. 134 of these are in solidly Democrat states that either she or Obama will win. Obama has won states with 189 electoral votes, but only 58 of them are in solidly Democrat states. The other 131 are from states that are either "in play," or states that no Democrat will win, i.e. Utah and Idaho.
There are a lot of smoke and mirrors in this mystique. Clinton and Obama are struggling to win delegates in Texas and Ohio to nail their nominations, but both of these states went Republican in 2004. For either Democrat to win in Texas there will have to be a 24 percent turn-around. Ohio seems to be totally in play.
The Democrats may have painted themselves into a losing corner with their exciting, but misleading, primary. The states in play are almost all either shiny red states or "purple" states with a mix of red and blue voters. These are states with conservative social practices entrenched, and also where the war and overt patriotism are not suspect. These states are the home states of the regular combat divisions in Iraq and Afghanistan. Michelle Obama's proud statement that she has never, until now, been proud of her country will not play well there.
In order to nominate Obama the Democrats have to suspend belief in reality. Sen. Clinton has shown she can carry the states with the electoral votes needed to win. Her credentials are based on hard experience, not wishful thinking. The Democrats can't afford to ignore her ability, experience and toughness to nominate anyone else. Sen. McCain hopes they will!
>> Is it too early to gloat yet?
Nah, go ahead and gloat; just remain vigilant. Whole thing turns on a dime sometimes.
Something interesting I have noted: many R’s including many on this forum are all doom ‘n gloom about beating Obama. “McCain is toast if he runs against Obama” and so forth.
Yet, many of the Dems seem to have the OPPOSITE attitude: “Only Hillary is electable, that’s why we need the superdelegates to bring the party back to its senses.”
Folks, BOTH world views can’t be right!!!
My money is on the Dems knowing their party best; if they think Hillary is the strongest, who am I to argue? As I have said many times, HUSSEIN can be beaten like a little toy drum.
Yes, but it’s looking a lot more hopeful. Whatever happens in the presidential contest, our best defense is to make certain we regain a convincing majority in Congress this cycle.
Michigan and Florida
some blackmail
A Summer Of Love and tear gas around the convention.
This shrewd leftist is already worried, even before we thoroughly investigate Mr. O and publicize his record.
“They” probably know their party best but the masses of HUSSEIN fawners don’t get it. They don’t appear to understand politics generally, or much of anything. I’m beginning to agree with many that it’s best to get Hillary out now rather than give the leftists time to wise up.
Still, the supreme ignorance of rank-and-file voters can’t be taken for granted.
And McCain? Big wins in states like NY and CA seals his victory as the (R) nominee although these states will never go for him in the general election. Meanwhile all the Republicans in little town America had no real voice. Makes me happy to have the electoral college come November to give the small states a voice in the process.
Both Obama and Clinton are beatable! The convention is umteen news cycles away and the election is into the next information age. Clinton is a ...er... dog of a canidate. And Obama is all glitter. McCain has a world of experience behind him in elections. Both Dems are prducts of affirmative action(lol). It's true.
One more note. If McCain is keen enough he will expose the under belly of Obama that was revealed by Obama's First-Afirmative-Action-Lady wannabe: in short, Obama and his wife hate America and want to change it; McCain wants to preserve America and fight for it.
Half of obaama’s nutty “youth” vote will be too stoned to remember to vote. And the democrat racists who voted against obaama certainly won’t be showing up to vote for him in November.
Exactly. I’m sure that getting most of Obamalama’s supporters to the polls once was a challenge. Doing it twice in one year? You gotta be kiddin’ me, dude!
Very interesting editorial by a leftist ... I guess he thinks Hitlery is much better for the Demodogs than O’Dumbo? Whatever... I think McCain ultimately gains an easy victory over either of them, though I would have preferred a tough and tight race led by Thompson or Romney or Hunter instead.
” First, he has convinced too much of the press that any criticisms from Sen. Clinton concerning his inexperience or his lack of specific programs is somehow a “negative attack,” but he must be allowed to say anything he wants about her and not be held to any standard for negativity.”
And let’s not forget the Obama cheering squad here at FR, either.
But, but...I thought we already elected him back in March, man?
bump for later
Please someone tell me exactly what this "hard experience" is? Ability? They've got to be delusional. "Toughness" yeah, it's tough to tote over 1000 FBI Files on your political opponents, and toughen up your "Bimbo Eruption" Patrol, and pack your campaign staff with thugs, private investigators and trash collectors.
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