* Denver's Democrat convention makes 1968 convention look like a day at Disney. 20%
* Obama begins to make mistakes, gets exposed, wears thin on voters during general campaign. 70%
* Democrats begin to turn on Obama as weak candidate who can't win. 25%
* McCain picks solid conservative as his VP candidate. 50%
* McCain decides not to run in 2012. ???
JMHO
The only place I differ slightly is regarding the internal battles ahead for the Dems...it could be more explosive than you think. We have race, gender, and Bubba...you can't make this stuff up! :)