Posted on 02/23/2008 10:24:35 AM PST by VegasCowboy
U.S. economic growth will slow to a crawl but avoid recession during the first half of this year while inflation will continue to rise, economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics said.
The association’s latest quarterly survey shows 55% of respondents expect the nation will avoid a recession. But they expect growth of the gross domestic product of just 0.4% at an annual rate in the first three months of 2008, followed by a 1% pace over the following three months.
Of the 45% who predicted the U.S. will enter a recession this year, most expect a “short and shallow” downturn. Only a few are projecting a “deep, protracted slide in economic activity.”
(Excerpt) Read more at blogs.wsj.com ...
The housing appreciation has been pretty consistent where I am. Always fluctuations, but that happens in every market. I do not live where there is mass new construction like in Florida, Calif and even Chicagoland. Anyone that buys a Pulte or like "publicly traded company" home will never see great appreciation. The history of homeowners in those corporation built homes never have good returns. The existing homeowner will always have the "like", but newer construction to compete with. Speculative housing has always been a risk. Those that "buy to flip" often are the first to be hurt.
Again I do not have that type of housing in my state, and land value stays high. Of course I live in a part of the country known for its tourism summer and winter. Home ownership is for the purpose of a long term investment. It is not a day trader mentality of investment.
I saw a report on how empty office buildings, think this was in a Calif city was once filled with attorneys offices-30 plus floors. Now, is what they call a telecom hotel--no people, just floors of telecom equipment for electronic commerce being conducted on the Internet.
I will always have wealth in my home whether market is up or down. Long term home ownership will continue to be the best investment out there.
If one stays debt free, then no matter what happens in the rest of the country or the world for that matter, you (I) will still have that feeling of financial security. More people of all ages, it's great to see, are following the Dave Ramsey (shout) we are debt free mentality (radio and FoxBusiness), as his shows continue to grow and pull top ratings even while running opposite Hannity (radio) and he sells out public appearances up to 10,000 seats. If you catch Dave's show, young kids are tuning in with their parents. How cool is that? Sound economics taught at home to be passed on to the next generation.
I feel that's an exciting, positive family snapshot reflective of a growing new attitude toward spending saving in this country.
For many working couples, the only assets they have are their home or their 401(k). Now that they can’t take money from their homes, they are taking money from their 401(k)s. We’ll see what happens when that runs out.
In the meantime, I expect to see a large reduction in consumption from all the working couples that have no home equity and no 401(k). It doesn’t take every consumer to stop buying to impact the economy.
Also Sen.Collins (minus what you hear about Susan Collins, she has brought jobs/ contracts to BIW and other ship building yards with govt contracts to Midcoastal Maine) is presently sponsoring a bill for a $500 (should be higher looking at $2,000 cost in some cases) tax credit to help consumers purchase and install clean-burning stoves. We are used to saving on energy by burning wood (love hate relationship) but that is what parts of the country have always done to save money come the cold months-inherited Yankee ingenuity
Iberdrola to acquire Central Maine Power (Now a Spanish utility Iberdrola S.A. will own CMP).
In New Hampshire, Iberdrola (Spain) is developing the Lempster Mountain wind farm, which will be the first utility-scale commercial wind farm site in New Hampshire
IBERDROLA CLIMAXES STELLAR YEAR WITH NET PROFIT OF €2,353.7 MILLION (+41.8%)
We in this country could not do what Iberdrola is doing..successfully??? So now my utility company (CMP) has been outsourced.
While the Hollyweird set rock on about Green alternatives, many parts of the NE have practiced for over 100 years what these sanctimonious individuals only preach. Do you see a clothes line drying clothes in the backyard in Beverly Hills? Many parts of the country a clothes line is not acceptable under rules and bylaws of a given subdivision or nesting of homes. Do you see the Sharandon set carrying in wood (everyday) to fill the Jotul wood-burning stove? Hypocrites! Ignoramuses! All of them.
In some ways, that’s ok. A lot of research has been done during this time of high energy prices, and research doesn’t go away. It can be existentially frustrating for researchers to see most if not all of their research sit on a shelf somewhere, but that’s the nature of the beast. It’s there when and if it’s needed.
Home values have dropped 20%+ in CA which has 12% of the countries population.
Anyone that doesn’t think that will have an effect on the entire country is dreaming.
My wife does inventory and a good % of the retail stores are already hurting for sales and profit.
Yep, on your last paragraph
Agreed....that’s why I said Coal, Nukes and Natural Gas
“I’m most amazed at the wishful thinking that goes on around energy.”
Anti Capitalists/Green Nazis force feed wishful dreaming on the ignorant to sell their wet dream products like wind farms, solar energy and now Mythanol.
Of course those are better than their Nightmare on Elm Street product, MTBE.
Foisted upon us by the GreenNazis.
Few people seem to realize where the MTBE scam came from. It was a product that refineries had produced for decades, used as a drying agent in fast drying aerosol paints.
When the "Volatile Organic Content" (VOC) of those aerosol cans was attacked, as a means of reducing the appearance of polution in the atmosphere, the refineries had to look for a new customer for the product of those units in their plants. Since MTBE was an oxidizer, the natural solution was to coax congress to require it to be added to motor fuels. (never mind the fact that the oxygen sensors in vehicles exhaust systems adjusted the air-fuel ratio to negate MTBE's effect)
Now that the stupid idea of adding oxidizers to fuels is established, enter the corn lobby to take over from the refineries that have converted the MTBE manufacturing areas of their plant to other uses.
We need "circle-breakers" badly!
Actually, it was the corn lobby that got in there first and the majors, though their shills in the NRDC, got the MTBE allowed as an oxygenate despite the fact that they knew it contaminated groundwater. Adding MTBE to gasoline was cheaper than buying ethanol and disposing of the MTBE so ADM had to take a back seat. Once the MTBE was pulled, ADM saw their opening and came back into the oxygenate game.
While gasoline has been available mixed with ethanol since the early 70s, (gasohol) it was an optional purchase, since plain gasoline was also being sold. That situation ended with the switch to non-metal, multi-wall tanks, because the ethanol penetrated the tanks rapidly, and stations were losing money from the lost fuel.
The “oxygenate” scam began in the late 80s in California, with MTBE, which also penetrated the tanks, but was being added at a much lower percentage. It was the water contamination issue that ultimately killed the MTBE, because there was no way of building a non-metal tank that would hold it. Many of the tanks that were replaced in the 70s have had to be replaced again, to switch to a type that can hold the ethanol. This bit of nonsense has been a source of income to me, because the excavation to replace the tanks also necessitated the replacement of the ground water monitoring systems, which required locating and mapping of the new wells, and logging them into Geo-Tracker.
It "began" as an oxygenate when it got EPA approval for that purpose, with David Donniger of the NRDC as the only NGO representative present.
Did you (or anyone else) see Bill Jones on the news lecturing the delegates about supporting McCain who will now secure the hispanic vote (he says) and assure a Republican victory at the San Francisco CA GOP CONvention yesterday?
All this political preaching and strategery from someone who simply quit campaigning against Barbara Boxer when he had the chance to defeat one of the 3 old leftist biddys* in the US Senate! It's enough to gag a maggot!!! (*Boxer, Clinton & Feinstein)
Rumor has it that Bill Jones has been making the rounds in the Crapitol in Sacramento strong-arming Repubs behind closed doors on McCain's behalf since just before the NH primary election. Do you all remember how Jones endorsed McCain when Dubya faltered a little in one of those early 2004 primaries???
The key difference – and the primary reason why stagflation is highly unlikely to be anything but a short-term problem, if a problem at all – lies in the history of the man presently leading the Federal Reserve. Ben Bernanke co-wrote a paper with his colleagues Mark Gertler and Mark Watson for the Brookings Institution in 1997 titled “Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks". The point made by Bernanke and friends in this paper was that every U.S recession from 1971 to 1997 occurred during periods when oil prices rose and the Federal Reserve raised interest rates as well. Not surprisingly, when faced with a stagflation scenario during his first term as chairman, Bernanke has held true to his prior academic work and has cut interest rates aggressively rather than raise them as had been done in the past.The key difference – and the primary reason why stagflation is highly unlikely to be anything but a short-term problem, if a problem at all – lies in the history of the man presently leading the Federal Reserve. Ben Bernanke co-wrote a paper with his colleagues Mark Gertler and Mark Watson for the Brookings Institution in 1997 titled “Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks". The point made by Bernanke and friends in this paper was that every U.S recession from 1971 to 1997 occurred during periods when oil prices rose and the Federal Reserve raised interest rates as well. Not surprisingly, when faced with a stagflation scenario during his first term as chairman, Bernanke has held true to his prior academic work and has cut interest rates aggressively rather than raise them as had been done in the past.The above is an excerpt from a Schwab report listed in this post.
You seem to be able to understand it just fine.
Now this Bill Jones clown would be the very same Bill Jones that certified the vote back when Newt's girl friend, Loretta, unseated Bob Dornan, (not exactly a close buddy of Newtie) in spite of all the irregularities that were evident. Also the same Bill Jones that pulled a Bob Dole on us in his Senate run, as you noted.
I'd say that anyone that can be 'strong-armed' by that wimp into supporting McDemocrap needs a few bottles of Geritol, huh?
Your post seems to contain an endless loop...
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