Leading Indicators down for 4th month in row

Conference Board ^ | 2/21/08

[Redmen4ever]

The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index decreased 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent and the lagging index remained unchanged in January

[Redmen4ever]

Sometimes revisions of past data reverse prior movements. This month's release confirms that the signal given last month, of the third decline in a row, has held up, and has now exteneded to a forth straight decline.

The coincident indicators (employment, production, sales and income) continue to rise, albeit at a slower pace. But the lag between the two series is variable, and the index of leading inidcators sometimes give off false signals of recessions.

If the index of leading indicators were to turn around starting next month, it would be reasonable to suppose that they economy will kick back into a growth phase iby late summer. This would be very fortunate for McCain. At this time, I am giving this scernario a 50-50 probability.

So would the announcement, come the summer, of additional troop withdrawals from Iraq due to success on the ground.

[The Iceman Cometh]

I guess that makes me a little happy to have put my home up for sale and sold it in its first full day on the market.

[norwaypinesavage]

When you average .1, -.1, and zero, you get zero. How does this translate to down?

[steve86]

You can’t average apples and oranges. The leading indicator is down. That’s all that was stated. The others are not the leading indicator.

[steve86]

You’re lucky. I was just reading about a house not far from Bill Gates’ which was last listed at 1.3 million. Has been foreclosed and is under contract on a short sale for 750k.

[RightWhale]

leading index decreased 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent and the lagging index remained unchanged

OTOH if it were the opposite that would also fuel an economic article. This econ journalism is obviously a career that will never end unless the indices stop changing.

[norwaypinesavage]

"The leading indicator is down."

The headline says indicators.

[steve86]

That title is used because the Leading Indicator is composed of many indicators.

[The Iceman Cometh]

We’ve got one here in Boise (listed with our brokerage as I am a Realtor), that was either appraised or purchased at $1.6 million that is being shorted for about $900,000. The owner left to Boston and could care less what happens to the home.