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More on a Hillary Comeback
US News ^ | Feb. 19, 2008 | by Michael Barone

Posted on 02/19/2008 7:39:36 AM PST by jdm

With the help of thegreenpapers.com the invaluable Green Papers, I made some calculations in a best-case scenario for Hillary Clinton in the Wisconsin, Ohio, and Texas primaries. I assumed that Clinton won statewide in each case, and that Obama carried only congressional districts (or in Texas, state Senate districts) dominated by upscale white voters and/or black voters. This is an especially optimistic assumption in Wisconsin, where Clinton currently trails Obama by 4 or 5 percent in public polls. The results are as follows: a 44-30 delegate edge in Wisconsin, an 83-58 delegate edge in Ohio, and an 82-41 delegate edge in Texas. Overall this is an 80-delegate advantage, based (again I emphasize) on optimistic assumptions.

This would be enough to erase the current 58-delegate edge Obama has in total delegates according to Real Clear Politics. But not enough to overcome the 137-delegate edge he has among "pledged delegates," that is, those chosen in caucuses and primaries. And it doesn't account for the fact that Texas on March 4 will also have caucuses to select another 67 delegates. The Obama campaign has swamped the Clinton campaign in almost all the caucuses and probably has far more in the way of organization in Texas's 254 counties than the Clinton campaign does.

What about the other post-February contests? Here's my brief take on each:

My bottom line take: The turf looks fairly favorable to Clinton, provided she wins Ohio and Texas March 4. Not favorable enough, perhaps, for her to overtake Obama in "pledged" delegates, but enough to keep the overall delegate count excruciatingly close, unless the superdelegates start cascading to Obama. (Maybe they have: Congressman John Lewis has evidently switched.) But if Clinton loses either Ohio or Texas, that's a sign that the ground thereafter will be less favorable to her. Losing Ohio would suggest she can't carry Pennsylvania or Indiana. Losing Texas suggests she can't carry Mississippi, North Carolina, West Virginia, or Kentucky. Losing either probably means the superdelegate cascade starts in torrents, and she falls well behind in total delegate count. In which case her candidacy is probably effectively over.

And even if she wins Ohio and Texas, she's still not likely, I think (no, I haven't done the delegate arithmetic yet), to accumulate enough "pledged" delegates to win without an edge in superdelegates, and perhaps without getting the Florida and, more problematically, Michigan delegations seated. But I certainly don't see her quitting in these circumstances.


TOPICS: Editorial; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: comeback; hillary
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To: Ancesthntr

If you live in Texas just remember your voter card does NOT have to be stamped “democrat”. I spoke with a county official this morning. Go ahead a vote Obama!


81 posted on 02/19/2008 11:28:10 AM PST by katieanna
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To: Jeff Head

Please see my post # 60 on why I believe it is a huge mistake to vote for Hillary Clinton in the Texas primaries.


82 posted on 02/19/2008 12:05:32 PM PST by jveritas (God bless our brave troops and President Bush)
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To: CharlesWayneCT
Charles,

People are getting it the exit polls wrong an you are telling me about a grand strategy for 2012 as if it is a sure thing. We cannot afford Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama as a President. Think about our troops and the war on terror.

McCain 2008.

83 posted on 02/19/2008 12:07:48 PM PST by jveritas (God bless our brave troops and President Bush)
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To: jveritas

I believe it will take the support of crossovers in both states to keep Hillary close enough for the very fight you envision. I want that fight to be ugly...because IMHO it will alienate large segments of the democratic voting block away from Hillary.


84 posted on 02/19/2008 12:07:50 PM PST by Jeff Head (Freedom is not free...never has been, never will be. (www.dragonsfuryseries.com))
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To: CharlesWayneCT
As bad as Clinton was policy-wise, it’s not like the government fell apart with them at the helm.

9/11/2001 is the dirtect result of Bill Clinton idiocy and cowardliness. Enough said.

85 posted on 02/19/2008 12:11:31 PM PST by jveritas (God bless our brave troops and President Bush)
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To: Jeff Head
I want the fight to be ugly too. However the fight will be ugly if Obama is ahead by 150-200 delegates going to the convention where Hillary Clinton will try to steal it via the Super Delegates and hence destroy the democrat party for decades whether she succeeds or not in getting the nomination. If she wins Texas and Ohio by big margins and close the delegates count with Obama then she will win the nomination without the ugly fight at the convention. Obama must be very close to her in Texas so he can deny her the closing of the delgates gap.
86 posted on 02/19/2008 12:15:13 PM PST by jveritas (God bless our brave troops and President Bush)
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To: bill1952

I don’t bet, I look at the facts and tell ‘em as it is. White males, 40% of the electorate, won’t vote for her. Almost 1/2 of this country will not vote for her under any circumstance. I stand by my remarks.


87 posted on 02/19/2008 12:16:02 PM PST by FUMETTI (Hillary, burn those pantsuits)
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To: jveritas

I have no interest in a 2012 strategy. I’m simply saying that even if you DO believe in a 2012 strategy, Hillary is better for that strategy than Obama.

Most people are pushing for Obama because they think he’d be easier to beat in 2012. First, I think he would be a disaster during those 4 years, worse than Hillary, and second, I don’t think he’d be easier to beat in 2012 than Hillary.

I’d much rather win in 2008. Then the 2012 strategy is to get a conservative to replace McCain in 2012 when he steps down.


88 posted on 02/19/2008 12:57:54 PM PST by CharlesWayneCT
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To: FUMETTI
White males, 40% of the electorate, won’t vote for her. Almost 1/2 of this country will not vote for her under any circumstance.

White males will vote for her in droves.
Big freaking mobs of them will stampede to the polls to usher in a democrat.

I look at the facts and tell ‘em as it is

Hate to tell you this, but someone has to clue you in:

Those are not facts; those are media opinion polls.

I stand by my remarks.

Just don't put your money where your mouth is.

89 posted on 02/19/2008 2:22:10 PM PST by bill1952 (I will vote for McCain if he resigns his Senate seat before this election.)
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To: bill1952

Polls? LOL!!!

Good one, Bill, polls are such accurate barometers. Didn’t opinion polls say Rudy Giuliani would be the next nominee for the Republicans?

Didn’t opinion polls say Barack Obama would not be a threat?

Didn’t exit polls say Kerry won in 2004?

While I am pummeling you some more with FACTS, here are some sweet polls for YOU.

http://mensnewsdaily.com/2008/02/14/white-men-give-hillary-a-lesson-in-realpolitick/

http://www.townhall.com/columnists/KathrynJeanLopez/2008/02/08/dems_turn_off_male_vote?page=full&comments=true

http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/fifty-percent-of-americans-would-not-vote-for-clinton-2007-03-27.html

Yeah, I am going to bet you. You sound like the welcher type.

I am not here to play the Lotto or the pools, dude. I am here to tell you that you are full of it. I stand by my remarks. Choke on these essays.


90 posted on 02/19/2008 2:37:18 PM PST by FUMETTI (Hillary, burn those pantsuits)
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