RUSH: It's just a rumor, but it's delicious to contemplate.
The Obama-Bloomberg Secret Plan
Posted on 02/19/2008 7:39:36 AM PST by jdm
With the help of thegreenpapers.com the invaluable Green Papers, I made some calculations in a best-case scenario for Hillary Clinton in the Wisconsin, Ohio, and Texas primaries. I assumed that Clinton won statewide in each case, and that Obama carried only congressional districts (or in Texas, state Senate districts) dominated by upscale white voters and/or black voters. This is an especially optimistic assumption in Wisconsin, where Clinton currently trails Obama by 4 or 5 percent in public polls. The results are as follows: a 44-30 delegate edge in Wisconsin, an 83-58 delegate edge in Ohio, and an 82-41 delegate edge in Texas. Overall this is an 80-delegate advantage, based (again I emphasize) on optimistic assumptions.
This would be enough to erase the current 58-delegate edge Obama has in total delegates according to Real Clear Politics. But not enough to overcome the 137-delegate edge he has among "pledged delegates," that is, those chosen in caucuses and primaries. And it doesn't account for the fact that Texas on March 4 will also have caucuses to select another 67 delegates. The Obama campaign has swamped the Clinton campaign in almost all the caucuses and probably has far more in the way of organization in Texas's 254 counties than the Clinton campaign does.
What about the other post-February contests? Here's my brief take on each:
My bottom line take: The turf looks fairly favorable to Clinton, provided she wins Ohio and Texas March 4. Not favorable enough, perhaps, for her to overtake Obama in "pledged" delegates, but enough to keep the overall delegate count excruciatingly close, unless the superdelegates start cascading to Obama. (Maybe they have: Congressman John Lewis has evidently switched.) But if Clinton loses either Ohio or Texas, that's a sign that the ground thereafter will be less favorable to her. Losing Ohio would suggest she can't carry Pennsylvania or Indiana. Losing Texas suggests she can't carry Mississippi, North Carolina, West Virginia, or Kentucky. Losing either probably means the superdelegate cascade starts in torrents, and she falls well behind in total delegate count. In which case her candidacy is probably effectively over.
And even if she wins Ohio and Texas, she's still not likely, I think (no, I haven't done the delegate arithmetic yet), to accumulate enough "pledged" delegates to win without an edge in superdelegates, and perhaps without getting the Florida and, more problematically, Michigan delegations seated. But I certainly don't see her quitting in these circumstances.
She'll carry the dead ones.
Moron: A Hillary Comeback
Clinton has advisors that have run the country before. She was actually there, and is much more familiar with how the executive branch works. As bad as Clinton was policy-wise, it’s not like the government fell apart with them at the helm.
Obama neither has any experience worth noting, nor does he seem to have surrounded himself with people who would contribute that type of experience.
When she gets Florida and Michigan delegates seated, she catapults into the lead in delegates and don't for a minute think that she won't make it happen! And she'll work the super-delegates with promises of future offices, favors, threats, whatever it takes. She'll get a majority of them. With a few more primaries to go Obama may still very well walk into the convention supposedly in the lead but after the back room has its say, he'll slink back home to Chicago as the loser before it's over.
” We need to knock out Clinton now. I think all Texas and Ohio freepers should vote against her and do America a favor.”
We live in Fla, so have already voted ( Mitt)
If we lived in either Ohio, Texas, we would vote for Obama just to put an end to the Clintons.
It’s not only her. Just look at what Bill is doing now. Back in power he would have nothing to fear, and would be her sock puppet on anything she wanted to ram onto the American public.
For that reason, among others, drive a stake in her heart right now......
Johnny M will take care of Obama.........
To the point where she was able to grab the FBI files.
As bad as Clinton was policy-wise, it's not like the government fell apart with them at the helm.
Same argument applies to Obama.
nor does he seem to have surrounded himself with people who would contribute that type of experience
No Washington insiders? Sorry, but IMO her experience makes her even more dangerous.
maybe we should review some Florida 2000 film coverage of Dem protests, replicate their "count every vote" signs, and organize a protest in Florida for Hillary.
I think that you just violated the 8th Amendment.
F’ing A, man, I just got new glasses last week, and you nearly blinded me.
We’ll have to agree to disagree.
“Johnny M will take care of Obama”
I agree with you. The polls show Obama leading McCain now but it is 9 months until November. The polls at this time in 2004 showed John Kerry leading Bush by 10 points and we see how that ended.
If John McCain hammers the message of his experience and success in Iraq, the American people will rally around him. Plus we don’t know if there will be a terrorist attempt thwarting between now and then too.
You are right on point.
Most uneducated voters have forgotten the horror of 9/11 and the impact it had on our country.
Extremeists love to see the focus on change/etc , and away from them.
One attack, and health care, freebies, will take back stage to losing it all.....
No you weren’t my first choice Johnny M, but you are my candidate now.............
It’s in the primaries. They are trying to keep Hillary alive to further split the Dem vote up until the DNC convention. They will vote GOP in the general.
It is definitely a choice between the Devil and the deep blue sea. I still odn’t know what I’m going to do, and may just end up casting a ballot for Fred Thompson.
Hillary will take 30 - 34 states.
Bet against me online. I’ll take the money.
Hi CW. The problem inherent in that statement is that if the last part is correct, then hillary would lose in 08 to begin with.
If we cannot beat her now with our chosen candidate, then we will fare no better trying to unseat a sitting President in 2012.
Not if we bust our chops and take back the House and/or Senate.
Bears repeating. It would be the best scenerio left to us at any rate.
Work like hell to prop up the downticket. - We are looking right at a disaster if we do not prevail.
Nothing should matter other than these are the calculating, cheating, corrupt Clintons. They will do anything and everything to win. I believe they proved that in New Hampshire where Hillary shed a tear and shocked everyone with her huge win. No one saw it coming, perhaps because no one considered the lengths they will go to to stuff the ballot boxes if need be.
They need to be stomped out like the little infectious, disease-carrying bugs that they are.
First, the mood of the country is still against republicans, so it’s a tough year. We have an unpopular president to contend with on our side as well.
And our candidate isn’t the best candidate for getting our side fired up.
All of those things can be fixed by 2012, especially if there is a person running the country like Hillary that galvanizes the opposition.
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