Posted on 02/19/2008 7:39:36 AM PST by jdm
With the help of thegreenpapers.com the invaluable Green Papers, I made some calculations in a best-case scenario for Hillary Clinton in the Wisconsin, Ohio, and Texas primaries. I assumed that Clinton won statewide in each case, and that Obama carried only congressional districts (or in Texas, state Senate districts) dominated by upscale white voters and/or black voters. This is an especially optimistic assumption in Wisconsin, where Clinton currently trails Obama by 4 or 5 percent in public polls. The results are as follows: a 44-30 delegate edge in Wisconsin, an 83-58 delegate edge in Ohio, and an 82-41 delegate edge in Texas. Overall this is an 80-delegate advantage, based (again I emphasize) on optimistic assumptions.
This would be enough to erase the current 58-delegate edge Obama has in total delegates according to Real Clear Politics. But not enough to overcome the 137-delegate edge he has among "pledged delegates," that is, those chosen in caucuses and primaries. And it doesn't account for the fact that Texas on March 4 will also have caucuses to select another 67 delegates. The Obama campaign has swamped the Clinton campaign in almost all the caucuses and probably has far more in the way of organization in Texas's 254 counties than the Clinton campaign does.
What about the other post-February contests? Here's my brief take on each:
My bottom line take: The turf looks fairly favorable to Clinton, provided she wins Ohio and Texas March 4. Not favorable enough, perhaps, for her to overtake Obama in "pledged" delegates, but enough to keep the overall delegate count excruciatingly close, unless the superdelegates start cascading to Obama. (Maybe they have: Congressman John Lewis has evidently switched.) But if Clinton loses either Ohio or Texas, that's a sign that the ground thereafter will be less favorable to her. Losing Ohio would suggest she can't carry Pennsylvania or Indiana. Losing Texas suggests she can't carry Mississippi, North Carolina, West Virginia, or Kentucky. Losing either probably means the superdelegate cascade starts in torrents, and she falls well behind in total delegate count. In which case her candidacy is probably effectively over.
And even if she wins Ohio and Texas, she's still not likely, I think (no, I haven't done the delegate arithmetic yet), to accumulate enough "pledged" delegates to win without an edge in superdelegates, and perhaps without getting the Florida and, more problematically, Michigan delegations seated. But I certainly don't see her quitting in these circumstances.
Agree.
The sinking ships have fled the rat.
Obama is NOT a shoe in. He cannot talk without notes, he doesn’t say anything, his wife is a loose cannon, and he is black. Plus McCain is a WARRIOR if nothing else, and will say anddo whatever it takes to win. He would NOT be above using the race issue against Barack.
“Hillary is unbeatable. If she takes the nomination she will take 30 -34 states in November.”
Bull...there is a built in 49% of Americans who will not vote for her under any circumstances. Add that to a 40% white male vote, which she is scoring very low with, in fact, lower historically than Gore or Kerry did.
Hillary will win if illegal immigrant voters and dyke women show up in droves to the voting booths.
Not true. Hillary will not carry any white male votes...she is polling very low in that area, lower than Kerry or Gore...and there is a built in voting bloc of those who will not vote for her under any circumstances. If enough lesbians, minorities, and illegal immigrants get to the polls, yeah it may be close, but Hillary to me is unelectable because she has HIGH negatives and unlikability.
We need to knock out Clinton now. I think all Texas and Ohio freepers should vote against her and do America a favor.
I know of many, many in Texas who’ll cross over for Obama. Myself included. I just can’t imagine her getting one step closer to the White House. If you think she’s easier to beat than Obama, you’ve forgotten how ruthless she is. If she gets the nomination, all bets are off.
I would. Hillary will be a much better President than Obama.
For those who think that means easier times for a republican in 2012, I could agree. Is it worth what we would go through for 4 years with an Obama presidency? No.
And worse, what if things don’t go bad? Then Obama wins easily in 2012. I think we might actually have an easier time beating Hillary in 2012 because the republicans will still be very opposed to her, and her presidency will galvanize the party in a way Obama may not.
Your first sentence makes no sense. Your last sentence does. Please explain why a galvanzing Hillary would be a better president.
Not if we bust our chops and take back the House and/or Senate. Read the tag.
Those are indeed optimistic and may be very optimistic figures for Hillary Clinton. Based on the way Barrone gave the delegates counts above, it means that Hillary Clinton needs to carry both Wisconsin and Ohio by 60% to 40% for Obama and she needs to carry Texas by 66% to 34% for Obama.
Obama's statements regarding foreign policy, the war, the economy, moral issues, etc. send just as severe shivers down my spine.
If Hillary can remain in the fight, and not be dealt a knockout blow, the left will continue to splinter and make the job of beating them easier.
That's my read...others may disagree and that's fine.
Yes, that is an awesome web site. Give it a look.
Your friends and relatives in Texas are making a huge mistake by voting for Hillary Clinton.
Agree 100%.
You seem to be radically underestimating her power. The reason the left has any chance of splintering is people like me who crossed over and voted Obama in Virginia. But she will take the nomination regardless of that.
No matter what, I don’t want Hillary and Bill to appear on my tv set for the next 4 years (or more)...
“Hillary, IMHO, is an easier win in November than Obama...but that’s just my opinion.”
Ehhh. The media wanted a McCain/Hillary race...IMHO because she has LOADS of dirt on McCain...shovelfuls...from his FBI files.
We’re all much better off even with an Obama win...because it will take him until his second term to figure out how to shut down FR...while her Heinousness will do so by the inauguration:)
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.