[Rurudyne]

The Sun on Vacation: Day 64 of the Gore-Hansen Minimum


Dated from January 4th, 2008, with confirmation of sunspot #10,981.


Super-Ultra-Mega Saturday Update and Thread-to-Date Recap

Friends, as many people will attest: it has been somewhat cold of late. There has, for example, been snow in both Bagdad and Jerusalem recently and Hong Kong is having a record cold snap (link ).

This thread began with a link to this article: (link). As I said at te beginnig, I’m having fun here and I don’t really believe it’s the dawn of a new Ice Age — or so I would hope for all our sakes. Also, this is an issue largely independent from AGW since it deals with "Glowball Warmth" rather than "global warming" (as I'll address later in the post).

But there is substance to this Watch and with it an explanation for why this winter is the way it is: solar radiance.

There is a strong link between both sunspot activity and the sun's magnetic flux as to how brightly it shines and how much meat it generates. Right now both of these have bottomed out. Here's a (link) to the Canadian observatory that keeps track of solar flux, updates daily. In terms of sunspot activity this means only a few or no sunspots; in terms of the solar flux a value of 64 to 68 is just about as low as it gets.

As you can see from today's solar flux values:

Flux Density Values in sfu for 17:00 on 2008:03:08

Julian Day Number : 2454534.197

Carrington Rotation Number : 2067.592

Observed Flux Density : 0069.9

Flux Density Adjusted for 1 A.U. : 0068.9

URSI Series D Flux, Adj. x 0.9 : 0062.0
... we have essentially bottomed out. The daily values I've personally seen since I began this watch elsewhere are:


By rurudyne at 2008-03-07

Red is Observed Flux. Blue is Adjusted for 1 A.U.
This is only the tail end of a trend that has been ongoing for a year now. As you can see from these four temperature gauges used by environmental and climate change scientist, we HAVE had remarkable cooling in the last 12 months.

These charts were brought together by Anthony Watts in his blog What's Up With That? (link) and have seen some traction since. He has calculated that the average of these is -0.6405ºC.

I should point out that Mr.Watts has said in an update:

I wish to state for the record, that this statement is not mine: “–a value large enough to erase nearly all the global warming recorded over the past 100 years”

There has been no “erasure”. This is an anomaly with a large magnitude, and it coincides with other anecdotal weather evidence. It is curious, it is unusual, it is large, it is unexpected, but it does not “erase” anything. I suggested a correction to DailyTech and they have graciously complied.

These are:


By What's Up With That? January 2008


By What's Up With That? January 2008


By What's Up With That? January 2008


By What's Up With That? January 2008
For a MUCH longer term perspective consider this chart of the solar flux for the last several decades:


By NOAA
You may notice, for example, the period from 1966 to 1976 that had people so concerned about global cooling and the beginning of a new ice age.

As for sunspot activity (solar flux and Planetary A index too) this chart shows our current status too (this one updates by itself):


By Jan Alvestad
Also, for a nice "real-English" discussion of sunspots I would suggest this (link).

It would seem a given that if old Sol is putting out less energy that we would in fact be cooler.

So what is going on here?

Well, Solar Cycle 23 which has been an ongoing concern for around the last 11 years has reached a minimum at which point Solar Cycle 24 should begin:


By NOAA
But Solar Cycle 24 just doesn't seem to have any oomph to get started. As you may have noticed above NOAA announced the first official SC24 sunspot on January 4 of this year; however, what that doesn't tell you is that SC23 was not behaving normally.

The usual length of time from a Maximum to a Minimum is 33 months +/- 5 months. Since SC23 reached its maximum in January of 2004 it has been almost 50 months and SC24 is still sputtering.

Does that mean we will enter another minimum like the Maunder Minimum (from about 1645 to 1715) or the Dalton Minimum (1800 to 1830)?

No. Not at all.

But unlike the spurious claims made in the Hong Kong article above, Global Warming cannot be the cause of Global Cooling. Think about it for a moment: isn't the nature of AGW global warming to increase the amount of heat retained? If so then even AGW global warming effects can only be a moderating consideration if, because the sun turns down for a bit, things cool off.

But, someone might ask, what of El Niño and La Niña? Well, it turns out that both are driven by solar activity (link).

You see, when we are talking about solar irradiance we are talking about something that is BEHIND either global warming or cooling. This is because the sun provides virtually all warmth to our atmosphere and so all discussions about thinks like green house gases are secondary to what the sun is doing. If the sun were to enter a Gore-Hansen Minimum the only thing that AGW could possibly do is to moderate some of it.

I will update this thread until, hopefully, SC24 finally gets off its lazy butt and starts cranking out some energy. NOAA had predicted this to occur in March plus or minus 6 months (link).

At this point it behooves me to point out that I've seen solar scientist say that the longer SC24 takes to get started the greater the chance we will see a repeat of something like SC20 that had everyone panicked about a new ice age. In the extreme though, we have this:

Further, the solar physics group at NASA has published their own prediction of a coming deep solar minimum, what the SSRC calls a "solar hibernation." The link below shows NASA's prediction of when the next minimum will occur. Though the SSRC and NASA differ on the exact start (Cycle 24 vs.cycle 25, respectively), both have separately concluded that an historic low period of the sun's activity is coming. NASA has not yet announced their correlation between the coming solar minimum and its potential impacts on the Earth's temperatures or climate. However, because this correlation is already well established and because we have the premliminary signs of the sun's unusually slow surface flows reported by NASA, the SSRC and other scientists, have concluded the process of changeover to the next climate era has begun.

... which is an excerpt from a paper that suggest we WILL be entering at least a new Dalton Minimum-like time. If you want to look into the issue you can go here: (link) and click on the top link "The RC Theory: SSRC Research Report 1-2008" for a down loadable file of the report.



Many thanks to those who have posted to this thread and who have started other threads (or posted to them) for helping me find the data that went into this update. Special thanks to Tolerance Sucks Rocks for the DOOMAGE! ping that has made finding some of this stuff so easy.

[Rurudyne]

RATS!!! I just noticed the typos on and around my own graph in that post. It was cutting and pasting and got careless ... the last edit you do is one edit too few....

[Swordmaker]

It's amazing... we've discovered what controls sunspots...

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide on Earth!

[Tolerance Sucks Rocks]

The usual length of time from a Maximum to a Minimum is 33 months +/- 5 months. Since SC23 reached its maximum in January of 2004 it has been almost 50 months and SC24 is still sputtering.

Are you sure about that. It looks like the SC 23 max was hit in 2000.

[Rocky]

Keep up the good work. I enjoy reading your updates.

[GOPJ]

This is an anomaly with a large magnitude, and it coincides with other anecdotal weather evidence. It is curious, it is unusual, it is large, it is unexpected...

Isn't it safe to assume that if it's the sun - and it probably is, that statistically it's unlikely we're at an extreme end - and it's more likely this is a normal but someone expansive pattern?

[FBD]

Heads up! Rurudyne has discovered something:

"There is a strong link between both sunspot activity and the sun's magnetic flux as to how brightly it shines and how much meat it generates."

8^/

[Rurudyne]

The Sun on Vacation: Day 77 of the Gore-Hansen Minimum


Dated from January 4th, 2008, with confirmation of sunspot #10,981.


Friday Ping


Please contact me to be added to or removed from this ping list.


Flux Density Values in sfu for 17:00 on 2008:03:21

Julian Day Number : 2454547.197

Carrington Rotation Number : 2068.069

Observed Flux Density : 0068.3

Flux Density Adjusted for 1 A.U. : 0067.8

URSI Series D Flux, Adj. x 0.9 : 0061.1




Red is Observed Flux Density. Blue is Adjusted for 1 A.U.

[Rurudyne]

The Sun on Vacation: Day 78 of the Gore-Hansen Minimum


Dated from January 4th, 2008, with confirmation of sunspot #10,981.


Saturday Update


Flux Density Values in sfu for 17:00 on 2008:03:22

Julian Day Number : 2454548.197

Carrington Rotation Number : 2068.106

Observed Flux Density : 0069.7

Flux Density Adjusted for 1 A.U. : 0069.3

URSI Series D Flux, Adj. x 0.9 : 0062.3


This post is 'responding to the thread recap earlier, which goes into some detail about the science involved and the meaning behind the numbers.

[Rurudyne]

The Sun on Vacation: Day 79 of the Gore-Hansen Minimum


Dated from January 4th, 2008, with confirmation of sunspot #10,981.


Sunday Update


Flux Density Values in sfu for 23:00 on 2008:03:23

Julian Day Number : 2454549.447

Carrington Rotation Number : 2068.152

Observed Flux Density : 0072.7

Flux Density Adjusted for 1 A.U. : 0072.3

URSI Series D Flux, Adj. x 0.9 : 0065.1


The science behind the watch recap: post #120

[Rurudyne]

The Sun on Vacation: Day 80 of the Gore-Hansen Minimum


Dated from January 4th, 2008, with confirmation of sunspot #10,981.


Monday Update


Flux Density Values in sfu for 17:00 on 2008:03:24

Julian Day Number : 2454550.197

Carrington Rotation Number : 2068.179

Observed Flux Density : 0078.1

Flux Density Adjusted for 1 A.U. : 0077.6

URSI Series D Flux, Adj. x 0.9 : 0069.9


Well, this looks hopeful.

[Rurudyne]

The Sun's Working Vacation: Day 81 of the Gore-Hansen Minimum


Dated from January 4th, 2008, with confirmation of sunspot #10,981.


Tuesday Update


Flux Density Values in sfu for 17:00 on 2008:03:25

Julian Day Number : 2454551.197

Carrington Rotation Number : 2068.216

Observed Flux Density : 0086.5

Flux Density Adjusted for 1 A.U. : 0086.0

URSI Series D Flux, Adj. x 0.9 : 0077.4


Still looking good; but, it has jumped up before (in January) only to go down again.... Maybe this time is for real?

Reference Post #120

[Rurudyne]

The Sun's Working Vacation: Day 82 of the Gore-Hansen Minimum


Dated from January 4th, 2008, with confirmation of sunspot #10,981.


Wednesday Update


Flux Density Values in sfu for 20:00 on 2008:03:26

Julian Day Number : 2454552.322

Carrington Rotation Number : 2068.257

Observed Flux Density : 0081.6

Flux Density Adjusted for 1 A.U. : 0081.2

URSI Series D Flux, Adj. x 0.9 : 0073.1


Reference Post #120

[Rurudyne]

The Sun's Working Vacation: Day 83 of the Gore-Hansen Minimum


Dated from January 4th, 2008, with confirmation of sunspot #10,981.


Thursday Update


Flux Density Values in sfu for 17:00 on 2008:03:27

Julian Day Number : 2454553.197

Carrington Rotation Number : 2068.289

Observed Flux Density : 0087.4

Flux Density Adjusted for 1 A.U. : 0087.1

URSI Series D Flux, Adj. x 0.9 : 0078.4


Reference Post #120

[Rurudyne]

The Sun's Working Vacation: Day 84 of the Gore-Hansen Minimum


Dated from January 4th, 2008, with confirmation of sunspot #10,981.


Friday Super-Update Ping

If anyone wants on or off my ping list that I’ve compiled just send me a note and I'll be happy to comply.


Flux Density Values in sfu for 17:00 on 2008:03:28

Julian Day Number : 2454554.197

Carrington Rotation Number : 2068.326

Observed Flux Density : 0083.3

Flux Density Adjusted for 1 A.U. : 0083.0

URSI Series D Flux, Adj. x 0.9 : 0074.7




Red is Observed Flux Density. Blue is Adjusted for 1 A.U.
Flux Density values from 64-68 are considered minimal.


As you can tell, we've finally had some activity from our friend Mr.Sun. Here's hoping it doesn't hit the proverbial snooze button!

Reference Post #120

[Rurudyne]

The Sun's Working Vacation: Day 85 of the Gore-Hansen Minimum


Dated from January 4th, 2008, with confirmation of sunspot #10,981.


Saturday Update


Flux Density Values in sfu for 17:00 on 2008:03:29

Julian Day Number : 2454555.197

Carrington Rotation Number : 2068.362

Observed Flux Density : 0082.8

Flux Density Adjusted for 1 A.U. : 0082.6

URSI Series D Flux, Adj. x 0.9 : 0074.3


Reference Post #120

[Rurudyne]

The Sun's Working Vacation: Day 86 of the Gore-Hansen Minimum


Dated from January 4th, 2008, with confirmation of sunspot #10,981.


Sunasleepatthewheelday Update


Flux Density Values in sfu for 17:00 on 2008:03:30

Julian Day Number : 2454556.197

Carrington Rotation Number : 2068.399

Observed Flux Density : 0081.3

Flux Density Adjusted for 1 A.U. : 0081.1

URSI Series D Flux, Adj. x 0.9 : 0073.0


Reference Post #120

[Rurudyne]

The Sun's Working Vacation: Day 87 of the Gore-Hansen Minimum


Dated from January 4th, 2008, with confirmation of sunspot #10,981.


Monbackunder80day Update


Flux Density Values in sfu for 17:00 on 2008:03:31

Julian Day Number : 2454557.197

Carrington Rotation Number : 2068.436

Observed Flux Density : 0079.5

Flux Density Adjusted for 1 A.U. : 0079.4

URSI Series D Flux, Adj. x 0.9 : 0071.5


Reference Post #120

[Rurudyne]

The Sun's Working Vacation: Day 88 of the Gore-Hansen Minimum


Dated from January 4th, 2008, with confirmation of sunspot #10,981.


Thursday Update


Flux Density Values in sfu for 17:00 on 2008:04:01

Julian Day Number : 2454558.197

Carrington Rotation Number : 2068.472

Observed Flux Density : 0077.6

Flux Density Adjusted for 1 A.U. : 0077.5

URSI Series D Flux, Adj. x 0.9 : 0069.8


Reference Post #120

[Rurudyne]

The Sun's Working Vacation: Day 89 of the Gore-Hansen Minimum


Dated from January 4th, 2008, with confirmation of sunspot #10,981.


Wednesday Update


Flux Density Values in sfu for 17:00 on 2008:04:02

Julian Day Number : 2454559.197

Carrington Rotation Number : 2068.509

Observed Flux Density : 0076.2

Flux Density Adjusted for 1 A.U. : 0076.2

URSI Series D Flux, Adj. x 0.9 : 0068.6


You know, I'm going to be somewhat irritated if, in 5 week's time, the graphs I'm posting once a week are back to being vertically compact ... if you know what I mean.


Reference Post #120

[Rurudyne]

The Sun's Working Vacation: Day 90 of the Gore-Hansen Minimum


Dated from January 4th, 2008, with confirmation of sunspot #10,981.


Thursday Update


Flux Density Values in sfu for 17:00 on 2008:04:03

Julian Day Number : 2454560.197

Carrington Rotation Number : 2068.546

Observed Flux Density : 0075.8

Flux Density Adjusted for 1 A.U. : 0075.8

URSI Series D Flux, Adj. x 0.9 : 0068.3


Reference Post #120