Rurudyne's Daily Global Cooling Watch

Brits at their Best ^ | January 31, 2008 | unattributed

[Rurudyne]

Sun's low magnetic activity may portend an ice age

The Canadian Space Agency’s radio telescope has been reporting Flux Density Values so low they will mean a mini ice age if they continue.

Like the number of sunspots, the Flux Density Values reflect the Sun’s magnetic activity, which affects the rate at which the Sun radiates energy and warmth. CSA project director Ken Tapping calls the radio telescope that supplies NASA and the rest of the world with daily values of the Sun’s magnetic activity a “stethoscope on the Sun”. In this case, however, it is the “doctor” whose health is directly affected by the readings.

This is because when the magnetic activity is low, the Sun is dimmer, and puts out less radiant warmth. If the Sun goes into dim mode, as it has in the past, the Earth gets much colder.

Tapping, who was originally from Kent, says that “Typically as you go through the ten or eleven year solar activity cycle you see the numbers go up or down. The lowest number is 64 or 68. The numbers 71 or 72 are very low, but they usually start to go up. We are at the end of a cycle, but the numbers still haven’t gone up. We have been joking around coffee that we may be seeing the Sun about to shut down.” (To date Tapping has been far more concerned about global warming.)





Here is the link to the latest flux report: http://www.drao-ofr.hia-iha.nrc-cnrc.gc.ca/icarus/www/current_flux.shtml

[Rurudyne]

The Uneventful Horizon: Day 203 of the Gore-Hansen Minimum


Thursday Update


Flux Density Values in sfu for 20:00 on 2008:07:24

Julian Day Number : 2454672.322

Carrington Rotation Number : 2072.657

Observed Flux Density : 0065.4

Flux Density Adjusted for 1 A.U. : 0067.5

URSI Series D Flux, Adj. x 0.9 : 0060.7


Reference Post #120

[Rurudyne]

The Uneventful Horizon: Day 204 of the Gore-Hansen Minimum


Friday Super Ping Returns


As always, if anyone wants on or off this ping list, please contact me and I will be happy to comply. Thanks.


Flux Density Values in sfu for 23:00 on 2008:07:25

Julian Day Number : 2454673.447

Carrington Rotation Number : 2072.698

Observed Flux Density : 0066.2

Flux Density Adjusted for 1 A.U. : 0068.3

URSI Series D Flux, Adj. x 0.9 : 0061.5


The Sun seems to be in park.



Reference Post #120 for discussion.

[Kozak]

Not a spot to be seen.....

[TigersEye]

Always with the negative waves, Rurudyne.

[Rurudyne]

Well, I think there IS something proactive we could be doing.

It’s just ... my Congressman laughs everytime I tell him NASA should send lawyers to serve papers on old Sol. LOTS of lawyers.

[GOPJ]

Thanks for the ping.

[TigersEye]

LOL Good plan.

[Rurudyne]

The Uneventful Horizon: The Gore-Hansen Minimum


Saturday's Values


Flux Density Values in sfu for 20:00 on 2008:07:26

Julian Day Number : 2454674.197

Carrington Rotation Number : 2072.725

Observed Flux Density : 0065.1

Flux Density Adjusted for 1 A.U. : 0067.1

URSI Series D Flux, Adj. x 0.9 : 0060.4


Sunday's Values


Flux Density Values in sfu for 20:00 on 2008:07:27

Julian Day Number : 2454675.322

Carrington Rotation Number : 2072.767

Observed Flux Density : 0066.3

Flux Density Adjusted for 1 A.U. : 0068.4

URSI Series D Flux, Adj. x 0.9 : 0061.5


Reference Post #120 for discussion.

[Rurudyne]

The Uneventful Horizon: Day 207 of the Gore-Hansent Minimum


Tuesday Update


Flux Density Values in sfu for 23:00 on 2008:07:28

Julian Day Number : 2454676.447

Carrington Rotation Number : 2072.808

Observed Flux Density : 0066.4

Flux Density Adjusted for 1 A.U. : 0068.5

URSI Series D Flux, Adj. x 0.9 : 0061.6


Reference Post #120 for discussion.

[I got the rope]

[Rurudyne]

The Uneventful Horizon: Day 208 of the Gore-Hansen Minimum


Wednesday Update


Flux Density Values in sfu for 23:00 on 2008:07:29

Julian Day Number : 2454677.447

Carrington Rotation Number : 2072.844

Observed Flux Density : 0065.9

Flux Density Adjusted for 1 A.U. : 0067.9

URSI Series D Flux, Adj. x 0.9 : 0061.1


Reference post #120 for discussion

[Rurudyne]

For the last several days the observatory’s web site has been giving those 404 errors.

I’ll keep checking.

[I got the rope]

How’s it going?

[Rurudyne]

Well, yesterday the 404 errors stopped.

Now they want you to log in ... as if the data may not be quite for public consumption now that people are actually paying attention.

[I got the rope]

Could you post the link?

[Rurudyne]

Actually, I just found an alternate source: http://www.spaceweather.ca/latestflux_e.php

Yesterday’s readings were:

Flux Density Values in sfu for 23:00 on 2008:08:18

Julian Day Number : 2454697.447

Carrington Rotation Number : 2073.578

Observed Flux Density : 0066.2

Flux Density Adjusted for 1 A.U. : 0067.8

URSI Series D Flux, Adj. x 0.9 : 0061.0

[I got the rope]

Cool. What day does that make this one?

[Rurudyne]

Day 227 of the Gore-Hansen Minimum


Flux Density Values in sfu for 20:00 on 2008:08:19

Julian Day Number : 2454698.322

Carrington Rotation Number : 2073.610

Observed Flux Density : 0067.3

Flux Density Adjusted for 1 A.U. : 0068.9

URSI Series D Flux, Adj. x 0.9 : 0062.0

[Rurudyne]

Day 228 of the Gore-Hansen Minimum


Flux Density Values in sfu for 23:00 on 2008:08:20

Julian Day Number : 2454699.447

Carrington Rotation Number : 2073.651

Observed Flux Density : 0065.7

Flux Density Adjusted for 1 A.U. : 0067.2

URSI Series D Flux, Adj. x 0.9 : 0060.5


Reference Post #120 for discussion.

[Rurudyne]

A word about the duration of the Gore-Hansen Minimum.

First off, the day count was based the appearance of a Cycle 24 sunspot THAT MAY HAVE NEVER BEEN (it was not facing the Earth and it’s “detection” was by indirect means that are not accurate).

With that in mind, I’m bringing up the following data:

The current solar cycle, SC23, has been officially in progress since May of 1996 - or 147 months. The average length of solar cycles for the last 2 centuries is 133 months, so SC23 has been going on for 15 months LONGER than average (roughly 450 days).

However, each of the 5 previous cycles (SC18 to SC22) averaged only 125 months

There is a strong correlation between the length of solar cycles and global temperatures that I’ve heard expressed as “A cycle that is 4 months longer can be expected to yield a temperature lower by 0.1C .” Conversely, a shorter cycle correlates to global warming.

If you consider this correlation, you would expect a drop in global temperatures relative to the mean: not quite a .4C drop in mean temperature as things drag out.

This last is less than the observed drop in temperatures so the correlation may need adjustment or the relationship may be non-linear due to inherent time lag in the system (mainly because of the oceans).

In other words, both global warming and cooling may be predicted without considering the greenhouse effect as the principal cause.

Also, technically I could start saying that the Gore-Hansen Minimum is more than 450 days old ... if I wanted to.

My thanks to AFPhys for the heads up.

He posted a link to some discussion here: http://www.tmgnow.com/repository/solar/lassen1.html