“Sorry, you can’t blame the “establishment”, whoever thay are, for lousy turnout.”
It’s the party’s job to get their electorate excited. That is done by offering a choice. The Republicans didn’t offer a discernable choice in 2006, and they’re offering even less of a choice in in 2008. Every election, they are offering less and less of a contrast between themselves and the Dems. That’s no the way to win elections.
After eight years of one party, people are ready for something different. It’s very rare for a party to hold POTUS for 12 years. Reagan did it for Bush I, but he was the most popular president of the modern era. It is exceedingly unlikely to happen again.
Obama will paint McCain as a third Bush term. That may pull a few conservatives back toward McCain, but it will move independents and moderates who want “change” toward Obama. Obama has his base, so he will be free to play to the middle. McCain will spend the whole election season seesawing between playing to the base, risking losing the moderates, and playing to the moderates, risking losing the base. In the end it is unlikely bordering on impossible that he will be able to hold both. He’s not that good of a campaigner. Barring something unforeseen, this election goes to the Dems.
If, and I think it's still an if, it's Obama, things could change. Obama has a lot of problems on the issues, and likely some mysteries yet to arise from his Illinois legislature experience, McCain is simply going to have to make that point.