If, and I think it's still an if, it's Obama, things could change. Obama has a lot of problems on the issues, and likely some mysteries yet to arise from his Illinois legislature experience, McCain is simply going to have to make that point.
I think a lot of the viable candidates saw the handwriting on the wall. Just look at all the Pubbie congresscritters who are calling it quits. That doesn’t happen in an election year when they expect the party to do well. And if we have to have a sacrifical lamb this year, I can’t get too broken up if McCain’s it.
Obama’s strength is that he doesn’t have a past to run against, and McCain does. He’s an empty vessel into which people can pour their particular hopes, dreams and frustrations. He’ll also have his base sewn up and will be able to play to the middle. I expect him to pick a reasuring white male centrist for veep to help him do that.
Unless McCain and the party are at the top of their game, he’s going to be hard to beat.