The Implausibility of Nuclear Terrorism (idiot column of the century + triple barf alert)

Creators Syndicate ^ | 2/12/08 | Steve Chapman

[RightWhale]

After fifty years of this we’re finding all of it beyond what needs to be worried about.

[norwaypinesavage]

"But remember: After Sept. 11, 2001, we all thought more attacks were a certainty. Yet al-Qaida and its ideological kin have proved unable to mount a second strike."

And for that we give our gratitude to George Bush, Dick Cheney, and Don Rumsfield and our eternal gratitude to the men and women of the armed forces of the United States.

[PhilDragoo]

Defense Media Briefings

With the correct expertise and access to highly enriched uranium, terrorists could build a “backyard atomic bomb” for less than $10 million, experts cautioned during a briefing for defense reporters. Backyard bombs are a low-probability risk, according to Peter D. Zimmerman, former chief scientist for the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and Jeffrey G. Lewis, Managing the Atom Project director at Harvard.

American Association for the Advancement of Science Annual Report

One of the physicists listed, with forty-five years between MIT, Bell and LANL, was tasked to determine whether a device could be designed with information in open sources. The results of his team's attempt were deemed successful, i.e., the device so designed would have been effective.

The freedom from terrorist attacks since 911 has been due to the aggressive preemptive action in Afghanistan and Iraq, as well as a wall-to-wall intelligence/counterterror war involving surveillance and covert arrests.

With Democrats fighting surveillance and McCain pressing for stressless interrogation and civil rights for detainees, the success to-date is unlikely to continue.

The author of the extant piece lacks the imagination of a John P. O'Neill.

[Brad from Tennessee]

Former CIA operative Larry C. Johnson’s analysis of the “Declining Threat of Terrorism” in 2001 (60 days before 9/11):

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1447248/posts

[Polynikes]

“Yet al-Qaida and its ideological kin have proved unable to mount a second strike.”

It wasn’t because of lack of trying.

http://tapscottscopydesk.blogspot.com/2006/03/oklahoma-bomb-squader-says-hinrichs.html
http://www.koco.com/news/5058347/detail.html

[meandog]

And for that we give our gratitude to George Bush, Dick Cheney, and Don Rumsfield and our eternal gratitude to the men and women of the armed forces of the United States.

With the exception of Secretary "Autopen" (used to ink the few letters to the grieving spouses and parents of our brave men and women in uniform that he never bothered to read), I agree.

[BlueDragon]

"......it’s rather simple with the right ingredients;"

Yes, that is true. The final stage, the weaponization, can be done, much much easier than either; refinement of uranium to weapons grade, building a nuclear power plant that will convert low enriched uranium to plutonium [and managing that particular product effectively], or building a delivery method which depends upon ICBM's. Those types of things are the complicated, and difficult parts. The bomb building itself, though still difficult [to get *right*] is much easier, once one has the materials.

We needn't worry about some group like Hezbollah, Hamas, or the vicious ones in Northwestern Pakistan, accomplishing those feats on their own.

As we faced with the spectre of Saddam, had he been allowed to stay in power, the threat is that a *government* would supply non-state actors to smuggle the blasted things.

If they thought they might be able to get away with it [doing so does fit their insane religious, return of the Mahdi eschatology] the Iranians will sit there with a smirk, saying, "who, me? I didn't set you up the bomb!".

Doing similar, but without the religious delusions WAS Saddam's fondest secret hope, and he was wicked enough, and stupid enough (Saddam was one of the worst generals the world has ever seen) to actually attempt it, had he been allowed the opportunity.

We simply must catch them, when they do try, before the bombs can be detonated. Because eventually, they will try...hell, the Russians, or more likely if it came to that, the Chinese, might even try to use those misguided islamofascist bozos, to knock us out of the runnin' [for oil & empire]. Then they could use their army, to come and try to collect the debt the U.S. Government owes them, under the guise of being sent by the UN, to 'help poor bombed out America quell it's food riots'.

The Dhimmocrat Party leaders, would welcome our new overlords!

[dr_who_2]

I don’t think it’s a question of knowledge anymore so much as a question of resources($), competence, transparency, time, and comparative advantage. Russia got its nuke secrets from traitors in America half a century ago. I don’t think we should assume that the Iranians are rational and fully in control, but we should way specific threats in terms of likelyhood. I don’t think suitcase nukes are anywhere near practical. Iranian missiles are a threat to US allies, but not much of a threat to the US. A barge full of nukes could only get to us if the US government is largely incompetent. Iran needs to be contained though.

[Pelham]

Libertarians often write as if the goddess Reason is their private possession, and that they have a special insight into the inner workings of their idol.

They don’t, of course, but this conceit does serve to confuse them and make them believe that whatever fantasy they wish to believe is, well, more Reasonable than the alternatives. The possibility that Islamic jihadists are crazy enough to be irrational and unReasonable is beyond belief.

[CougarGA7]

This is just wishful thinking by the author. It really is only a matter of time before a terrorist organization has a working nuclear weapon. However, I do suspect that terrorists will detonate a dirty bomb somewhere in the world long before they finally set off a fissionable weapon. It’s just a case of ease of deployment. That too will be a nasty day for all of us.

[MeekOneGOP]

McLame 08 / Free KSM

Perfect Perfect Perfect !!

Great image, Phil!

[LukeL]

Even if they faily to create a controlled implossion and thus create a dirty bomb, imagine if Chernobyl were to happen in Lower Manhatten and the winds carried it over the Two Islands,

[meandog]

I agree, suitcase nukes are an impracticability, but there are literally thousands of places on an old ship that one the size of a small storage shed could be hidden and there are plenty of Liberian-registered ocean freighters (owned by Islamic countries) out there to volunteer...I realize the Coast Guard probably screens with radioactivity detection devices, however if it were just encased in normal fuel oil there are enough heavy hydrogen atoms to masque its detection. Think of the damage one super tanker, with a nuke in one of its fuel cavities, could do to a port city in California or the Gulf. The author who penned this is a lunatic.