Posted on 02/11/2008 2:05:16 PM PST by PlainOleAmerican
Written by JB Williams ©2008 USA
Whether the RNC is trying to destroy the GOP or not, its clear that they couldnt do a better job of destroying it, no matter how hard they try. Making John McCain the RNC nominee is the most certain way to lose the 2008 election. But even if McCain could actually win in November, almost a numerical impossibility by the way, many conservatives have already predicted that even a McCain victory would be the end of the GOP as we know it. Whats the RNC thinking?
Can McCain Win?
While MSM polling data aims to make McCain look like the best the RNC can do, the real numbers say something quite different.
As of this writing, the RNC has completed 30 state primaries. Our leader John McCain, has lost 19 of the 30. A little over 16.5 million votes have been cast in Republican primaries so far, only 4.9 million of those for McCain, 30.9%. - with 69.1% of all Republican voters having voted against McCain.
Obama carried his home state of Illinois with 65% of the vote. Clinton carried her adopted home state of New York with 57% of the vote. McCain won his home state too, but with only 47% of the vote, less than half of his constituents. The only states McCain broke above 50% in are liberal stronghold states, Connecticut, New Jersey and New York and in all three cases, both Clinton and Obama defeat him in these states by more than a 2 to 1 margin
28 states have completed both RNC and DNC primaries thus far. By popular vote, Obama won 14, Clinton 10 and McCain only 4. McCain lost the RNC primary in 3 of those 4 states, averaging only 14% support from Republican primary voters in each. He is at best secure in only 2 of the 4 states, Alaska and Iowa. In the general election, he can indeed lose both Arizona and Nevada.
This is the winner RNC heads think they can defeat Democrats with in the fall? How???
The National Popular Vote
All Republicans combined have garnered 16.5 million primary votes in 30 primaries. Democrats Clinton and Obama alone have garnered 17.6 million primary votes in only 28 primaries, 1.1 million more than all Republicans combined. If McCain could unite 100% of Republican voters behind his campaign, and Clinton Obama only keep their 78% of the Democrat votes, McCain still loses by over 1 million votes and he cant unite 100% of Republican voters, no way no how!
Of more than 22.5 million primary votes cast and counted to date, Clinton has 40% of those votes while Obama has 38% and McCain has but 22%. McCain is not even in striking distance of either Clinton or Obama. Who can McCain invite to share his ticket that will unite GOP voters and deliver the kind of excitement currently found across the political aisle? Only Jesus Christ has such powers I can think of no other.
If this is the RNCs idea of choosing a winning candidate, Id like to see their idea of a losing candidate? Even Bob Dole was a better bet in 1996.
Where can McCain win?
At the moment, it appears that McCain cant win anywhere but Alaska and Iowa, both of which he lost miserably in the RNC primary, but both of which are SO Republican that even a Republican loser can defeat a Democrat there. Hes not close to winning anywhere else at the moment and unless he finds a way to unite and ignite GOP voters, thats not likely to change.
How do you elect any candidate with 22% of the popular vote and 30.9% support in his own party? The math simply wont work.
Clinton Obama to unite for Proletariat Party Unity
For almost two years now, I have been warning of this eventuality and until Super Tuesday, everyone said I was nuts. Now most political strategists are saying the same thing and heres why.
Clinton and Obama are in a dead heat right now. Clinton and Obama share 78% of the DNC primary voters, leaving only 22% on the table, most of whom will happily unite behind either candidate by convention time. Clinton currently has 40% of those voters while Obama has 38%.
The two Im more socialist than you candidates are also in a dead heat in the delegate race, Clinton with 1148 and Obama with 1121, both of them flying to North Carolina to negotiate with John Edwards for his 26 delegates. Were talking a photo finish here for these two.
Obama has won 14 states to Hillarys 10, but Hillarys are bigger. If Obama is going to sneak ahead of Clinton to become the DNC nominee, hes got to do it soon or it will become a numerical impossibility.
A few facts make an Obama nomination plausible, even if unlikely.
He has no resume, so no BIG negatives like Hillary He has charisma and momentum shes a negative nagging bitch He has the youth vote for change shes crusty old bad news Hes raising money and shes out of money
Still, due to a massive well trained Clinton war machine, Hillary remains out front and the woman to beat in this race. Assuming she hangs on until the photo finish and the numbers simply wont work for Obama to become the clear front-runner, both have a problem that can only be solved by uniting on a single ticket in the general election.
Remember that liberals are nothing if not symbolism over substance. Neither of these two candidates is in any way qualified to become Commander-in-Chief. But that has not had any impact on their voters thus far and it wont.
Thats because liberals smell an opportunity to make history by putting the first female and first black in the White House in one shot. If youre a liberal, no matter what this means for the demise of your country, this is a symbolic opportunity you just cant pass up
And, if youre Hillary looking for a sure win in November, you dont take any chances. You unite 78+% the party in one move by bringing Obama onto your side in the general. Liberals get exactly what they want, two socialists for the price of one and a whole chapter in history that can be written no other way. Republicans are facing the perfect political storm
If youre Obama and the numbers just arent there, you take a 2nd place finish and run as an incumbent Vice President in four or eight years. Hes young. The ink on his drivers license isnt even dry yet The first black Vice President is HUGE! It makes for great symbolism, even if disastrous for our national future at the same time.
How can McCain compete with that?
Two words he cant! If you think he can, check these numbers
McCain is the worst possible Republican candidate to compete in this election with such historical implications in play. He represents the past, not the future. Hes unpopular with both Democrats and Republicans. There arent enough Independents in the world to carry this Maverick to victory.
This was either the greatest strategic blunder in the worldwide history of politics, or it was an intentional deathblow to the GOP, delivered at the hands of RNC powerbrokers hell-bent on destroying the conservative party for good. You decide
Conservatives Golden Parachute
Conservatives have only two bailout options left on the table. Mike Huckabee and the U.S. Senate.
Huckabee is highly unlikely to defeat the MSM golden boy McCain and even if he did, there is little reason to think he would be any better than McCain in the general election or the Oval Office.
So, the Senate is where conservatives must now turn their attention in a BIG way!
Taking back control of the Senate, which must confirm all Supreme Court nominees and pass all legislation, must now become job #1 for all conservatives. The House is not realistically in play, but the closely divided Senate is
Use the energy and money you were prepared to put into Thompson, Huckabee, Paul, Hunter, Tancredo, Romney, Giuliani or any other Republican, to make certain that a conservative is sitting in your Senate seat after November.
If you cant put a conservative in your Senate seat this year, take a look at other Senate races where you can help other states pick up a conservative seat in the Senate and put your resources to work there. Were talking saving a nation here
Whether Clinton, Obama or McCain sit in the Oval Office for the next four years, who controls the U.S. Senate will be vital to protecting and preserving conservative values and principles for the next ten or twenty years. If conservatives cant unite around this one, they deserve what they get!
* Real McCain support numbers - http://jb-williams.com/mccain-2008.htm
Uh, sorry, but NO!
I was a HUGE Thompson supporter (in Tennessee).
Huckabee kept the religious right from uniting with base conservatives in SC and without these two groups united, Thompson nor Huckabee could go forward... So long as Huckabee holds on to the evangelical vote, he will be the Ross Perot of 2008 and nothing more I’m afraid.
Like Reagan in 1980 and 84, Bush Sr. in 88 and Bush Jr. in 2000 and 2004, Republicans win ONLY when evangelicals and base conservative are united behind one candidate. Thompson could have gotten the evangelical vote without Huck, but Huck can not get the conservative vote without Fred in the race...
That’s how McCain became #1 with only 30.9% support in his party. But he can’t win the general election that way...
Who was pushed out of the race before any real Republicans had a chance to vote and who pushed them?
Second, are you an imbecile that you can't understand that in a primary contest with multiple candidates, multiple winners, and states of varying delegate value, a candidate with less than 50% of states or votes can win the nomination?
I don't get it, are some people that stupid or just that lazy or just that arrogant? There is no other candidate with more votes or delegates at the moment. That would only be a "conspiracy" to people too stupid to understand how the primaries have worked.
Hate McCain all you want, predict his defeat, send him nasty emails, I don't care. But there is no basis for silly posts about the "RNC" having picked the candidate. They simply didn't.
Keep repeating that all you want; there's no evidence whatsoever. Typical conspiracy garbage.
idiot!
Whatever. Make sure you keep your tinfoil drawer fully stocked.
Yeah, about 30% of them. So much for the winner take all rules.
"As of this writing, the RNC has completed 30 state primaries. Our leader John McCain, has lost 19 of the 30. A little over 16.5 million votes have been cast in Republican primaries so far, only 4.9 million of those for McCain, 30.9%. - with 69.1% of all Republican voters having voted against McCain."
In 2000, McCain won 33% of the vote.
The winner take all rules must be changed or we will wind up again with a candidate most of the Reps voted against. We also need to eliminate open primaries.
Here you go.
/mark
The rules suck and must be changed.
ummmmmm, Iowa doesn’t have a primary.
Can you show where GOP candidates got RNC support, if that’s the point you are trying to make?
I don’t disagree, but California changed to WTA by Congressional District.
That’s no good either.
The liberal CD bastion of Pelosi, with only 30,000 Republicans,
got the same number of delegates as a conservative CD
in Orange County with 200,000 Republicans.
Really???
Behind on your reading?
Who are the RNC heads out campaigning for?
You and I both supported Thompson. he didn't make it. The RNC had no reason to keep him out, or Giulianni or Romney. They just lost so far. So do what you want but the RNC sucks the best post here was someone pointing out the RNC couldn't pull this off if they wanted to.
Now you’re on the right track... Why were you splitting hairs as if the RNC had no place in this mess earlier?
The RNC didn’t pick a candidate, but it is responsible, along with the states, for the rules governing the primaries. Winner take all and open primaries helped McCain win the nomination despite the fact that he can only win 30.9% of the popular vote, some of it coming from independents.
Now answer the question...
Go look at 2008 primary results in Iowa and tell me why so few participated in the DNC primary?
Conservatives didn’t get a chance to vote for any conservative until SC, where only Thompson was still standing and Huckabee had the evangelical wing locked in his camp...
So, how is it that NO conservative made it past SC, which was the first conservative primary in the process? (other than Wyoming of course)
Before conservatives could vote, there was nobody left to vote for. How did that happen in a matter of four early primaries?
“They had several horses in the race. When it became evident Giuliani couldnt win, they that horse to increase the odds for McCain. I suspect Fred was also a tool of this little game.”
Bingo.
I have less of a problem with winner take all by CD. It is fairer. The at-large delegates are usually selected by who wins the popular vote statewide. Romney lost a sizeable number of CDs in CA by small margins, usually by 1% with both McCain and him in the mid-30% range. And because of early voting, Thompson, Hunter, and Giuliani were still on the ballot and received aroud 10-15% total of the vote plus Ron Paul received his 5% or 6%.
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