(((HuckaPING!)))
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Posted on 02/11/2008 1:10:17 PM PST by dangus
Friday, Rasmussen didn’t even poll Republicans on their primary choice; the national news media already announced McCain had won the nomination. Saturday Rasmussen did release their poll: McCain trounced Huckabee, 55-24. Sunday, as the nation learned Huckabee was still a candidate, Huckabee improved, but still trailed greatly, 49-29. Monday’s poll shows Huckabee pulling to within 12 points, 46-34.
This seemed in monumental conflict with Gallup, which showed McCain winning over those same three days, 56-25. But now another poll, AP/IPSOS shows the race just about as close as Rasmussen, 44-30. (The GOP establishment should be nervous that Ron Paul also polled at 9% nationally.)
But is it even closer than Rasmussen shows? All three polls were taken over the same time period. Only Rasmussen released results each day. With them having done so, we can extrapolate from the data roughly which percentage of respondents supported each candidate each day. Saturday McCain won 55-24. To have dropped to a 49-29 lead, McCain must only have led in Sunday’s poll, 43-34. And to have dropped further to a 46-34 lead, McCain seems to have actually lost Monday’s poll, 40-44.
Some caution is necessary: When splitting hairs like this, the effect of rounding and statistical error is amplified. Depending on rounding, McCain and Huckabee could have tied at 43 percent in Monday’s poll. And the margin of error for such a small sample is six percent… which means McCain could have gotten six percent more, and Huckabee could have gotten six percent less. Which means McCain could actually have led Huckabee by twelve percent in the most recent day’s polling data. (But, by the same logic, Huckabee could be winning by twenty percent.)
AP/IPSOS’ three day results are very similar to Rasmussen. Unfortunately, AP/IPSOS didn’t release day-to-day numbers. So we can’t tell if Rasmussen’s results are the result of an amazing tightening, or just bizarrely flukish data on Monday’s release cancelling out equally bizarre data the other way on Sunday. But it seems safe to say that AP/IPSOS confirms that Rasmussen’s overall three-day data is realistic.
So why is Gallup’s so skewed in comparison? Gallup polled “voters” not those who were were most likely to vote. It’s likely less politically active voters were less likely to realize that there was still a battle to be fought. Also, Gallup’s polls counted independents, even though independents won’t be allowed to vote in most remaining states.
It’s still worse for McCain coming up. Whereas California, New York, New Jersey, Florida, Delaware, and New Hampshire all have large numbers of moderate Republicans, and all voted for McCain, of the remaining states, that’s only Oregon, Maryland and Vermont tend towards moderates. (I’d also suppose McCain could do well in the military-heavy states of Virginia and Hawaii.) And what happens if McCain voters believe the media hype and don’t bother to vote, while Huckabee’s supporters swarm to the polls?
The notion that Huckabee can’t win simply isn’t at all true. Republican states are mostly winner-take-all, so Huckabee can still nearly every remaining delegate with 51% of the remaining votes. (And even that doesn’t account for the Paul voters.) Even winning scarcely more than half of the remaining delegates could force a brokered convention. Or, more likely, a negotiated victor with Romney supporters and state party leaders picking the winner. Whereas such a deal would haunt Clinton or Obama, who have already considerably tapped potential primary donors, Huckabee could campaign full-throttle on what are legally "primary" funds.
Huckabee is NOT down 683-632. Huckabee is down something like 723 to 217...thus my 72 to 21 analogy.
You're grasping at straws. You cannnot take the scores from other games or other teams and simply add them to your side.
In this game, they are just as likely, and at this point are far more likely, to go to the other side. You'd be better to just leave them laying on the field at this point in the comparison.
In a brokered convention, we can at least ask for concessions.
National polls were useless before the primaries started. Now that over 30 States have already voted they are worse than useless. McCain needs a certain number of additional delegates to clinch and he will seek them in the States that haven’t voted yet and he will be awarded them according to the varying rules in place in each one. A national poll snapshot of generic preferences between McCain and Huck tells us nothing about how this will play out.
>> You’re grasping at straws. You cannnot take the scores from other games or other teams and simply add them to your side. <<
>> thus my 72 to 21 analogy. <<
And if you got seven points for a primary and three for a caucus, you’re analogy would be perfect. The only problem is that McCain doesn’t need to outscore Huckabee to win the primary. He needs to outscore EVERYBODY. If he doesn’t, the party’s gonna start calling on SOMEONE to concede defeat, or else we go to a brokered convention.
Now, suppose you’re a party official. Now, suppose Huckabee wins Virginia. And I’ll grant that’s a big if. But if he does, he’ll be a favorite in Texas. And North Carolina. And Indiana. And so on and so on, ad Deanscreameum. You’re looking at one candidate who has more delegates, but could barely top 40% anywhere, and has heartily been rejected by the grass roots. Are you going to hand him the nomination, or are you going to look at the guy with the winning streak?
Of course, Huck does have to start working on a winning streak... but Kansas, Louisiana and Virginia would be a nice start. And no, McCain hasn’t won Washington state, yet. And I’m not just talking about getting a recount. He just won 23% of the invitations to the state convention, that’s all. And I’m guessing the grasstop activists going to that convention are going to do to him exactly what happened in Louisiana in a similar race.
>> National polls were useless before the primaries started. Now that over 30 States have already voted they are worse than useless. McCain needs a certain number of additional delegates to clinch and he will seek them in the States that haven’t voted yet and he will be awarded them according to the varying rules in place in each one. A national poll snapshot of generic preferences between McCain and Huck tells us nothing about how this will play out. <<
Read the whole article. Although far from exhaustively, I already compared the national vote to states which still have to vote.
All of ‘em.
The Panama Factor: McCain was born in the Panama Canal Zone. Was that a possession of the United States? Maybe they can take his birth out of the country to court and rule him ineligible....lmao ....I’m joking of course.
When McCain was born, the Panama Canal Zone was a territory of the US...so he technically would be a US citizen
Now.....I was born in an Army hopsital in Germany, and at that time I still had to be “naturalized” (now y’all see why I get POed over illegals). After 1965 children born in overseas military hospitals were not required to do this
However......the Canal Zone is now Panamanian territory (sold off to the Commie Chinese). I wouldnt put it past the DNC to challenge a McCain presidential win based on him being born in a now-non existent US territory. The Supremes may have to settle another election.
Never put it past the DNC to pull something....
Obama or Hillary will win Utah?
I'm not so sure. I think we have a small chance either way against Hillary, but not so much against Obama. However I think if we have one at all, the only possible chance against Obama would be Huckabee just because he is such a good uplifting speaker and McCain is just old and angry.
(((HuckaPING!)))
FReepmail me to be on/off the HuckaMajoredInMiracles Ping List.
Hillary uses her influence in exchange for money or favors. Obama would probably trade away our secrets for free. At the very least, I see him as one of those citizens of the world who would undermine our sovereignty and safety.
If you hadn't noticed, Conservatives don't like candidates that have to "shift right". They like folks that are already there.
Sorry, I sincerely wish that it were not true...but this statement is simply not correct:
AZ - 48% 53 Delegates
CT - 52% 30 Delegates
DE - 45% 18 Delegates
IL - 47% 55 Delegates
NJ- 55% 52 Delegates
NY - 51% 101 Deelegates
In those six states alone, McCain won by large margins and took a total of 309 delegates.
Clearly he can win big...and my guess is that in some of the remaining big delegate states (OH, PA, TX) he will do so again.
We shall just all have to see how it turns out.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1968724/posts
At this point, in just about any state with a closed primary Huckabee could win. Huckabee is still being underestimated.
It was pointed out on one of the 'After Primary" wrap-up shows, that you are correct. For all the same reasons. The sentence in the article above, concerning the remaining republican primary states are mostly winner take all, is incorrect.
“As of this writing, the RNC has completed 30 state primaries. Our “leader” John McCain, has lost 19 of the 30. A little over 16.5 million votes have been cast in Republican primaries so far, only 4.9 million of those for McCain, 30.9%. - with 69.1% of all Republican voters having voted against McCain.”
In 2000, McCain won 33% of the vote.
Of all those states, AZ and (soon to come) TX are the only ones that are normally Republican stronghold states. He has done miserably in the "red states" thus far, his wins being Arizona, Oklahoma, Missouri, and Florida AFAIR. His big wins have all been in places that he will have no chance of winning come November.
I am not a McCain fan...but I am also not afraid to see things as they are...and in the Republican primaries thus far the statement that McCane has barley ever won 40% of the vote is simply not accurate.
Still, we can surely dream.
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