Now is the Winter of Our Conservative Discontent

American Thinker ^ | February 07, 2008 | Thomas Lifson

[neverdem]

The prospect of John McCain as Republican nominee is inspiring sometimes angry resistance from millions of conservative stalwarts. Ann Coulter's famous support for Hillary Clinton  threatens to spark a wave of conservative "suicide voters"  if the Arizona Senator gets the nomination.

Other Republicans, variously called insiders, party pros, elitists and worse, blithely assure us the alienated base will come around in the end and vote for McCain and the GOP ticket, particularly if Hillary Clinton is the alternative.

Assuming McCain gets the nomination, I am not so sure. It could go either way.

Anger at McCain

Anger has been a consistent theme for 7 years on the left, beginning with outrage over Bush's electoral victory. Anger now has now become a familiar conservative motif, as well. McCain has provoked a profound animus from conservatives ranging from Rush Limbaugh and Thomas Sowell on down to the posters at numerous conservative blogs, emailers to this site, and callers to talk radio. McCain's Legislative sins prominently include McCain-Feingold, McCain-Lieberman, and McCain-Kennedy. All three feel to principled conservatives like monstrous betrayals -- liberalism that can only make things worse.

Then there is the obvious relish with which McCain sometimes sticks it to the disaffected voters to his right, as with his comment on a conference call to bloggers likening ANWR and the Grand Canyon as places we shouldn't drill for oil. The conservative base of the GOP has been dissed by the Senator on multiple occasions like this, in ways big and small.

To be fair, this in-your-face attitude has caused trouble for him on the left as well, witness his remark that we could have troops in Iraq for one hundred years and that would be "fine", in response to a hostile questioner in New Hampshire. This man enjoys challenging, sometimes baiting, his opponents, and when provoked may still retain a little of the propensity for getting himself in trouble that he displayed at Annapolis and as a fighter jockey.

Discontent

McCain's nose-thumbing stings all the worse for conservatives because it has been unusually tough to be a conservative of late. The loss of Congressional majorities still stings. President Bush has been no Reagan, except in his commitment to victory in Iraq and Afghanistan. Bush's fiscal profligacy has been dispiriting, as has his tendency to accommodate Ted Kennedy and other liberals.

Conservatives feel they need a champion. Instead of an inspiring new conservative leader, they have now pinned their hopes on Mitt Romney, who has attracted several major conservative endorsements since McCain became the man to beat. Governor Romney is a fine and able man, but his evolving positions and managerial speaking style do not recommend him for the role of ideological champion.

All in all, it is more than reasonable for conservatives to feel somewhat abandoned. They are unappreciated by McCain, and, so it almost seems, by the party that may be about to nominate him.

Atmospherics

Relentless media portrayals of the supposed misery inflicted on America by Bush and other conservatives also have taken their toll. Conservatives ably critique mainstream media coverage of the economy, Iraq, immigration, and other issues, but these words rarely reach beyond the world of the internet and talk radio. The vaster reach of the liberal media has created an atmosphere in which conservatives have to fight against a media-spawned general public impression that having the GOP run the White House or Congress was a very bad idea.

In the major media, the American economy is never celebrated as a success (though Bush's track record has been good), but always seen as a problem. The now-classic portrayal of coffin makers in Iraq suffering as the carnage has declined crystallizes beyond satire the media's gloom-mongering. Iraq was a horrendous disaster, and then it just vanished from consideration as the Surge turned things around. The media have been telling Americans that things are in terrible shape for seven years, thanks to Bush and the conservatives, and too many people buy it because TV comedians joke about it. There are a lot of parties at which it is not much fun to be an open conservative, and not just in Berkeley.

Schadenfreude Season

The sole pleasure being a conservative now is enjoyment of Hillary Clinton's life-and-death struggle for the Democratic nomination. She expected a coronation and ran into Barack Obama's charisma, likeability and extraordinary appeal to those delighted at the prospect of finally having a black American occupy the nation's highest office. His race card has trumped her gender card.

She and Bill have already drawn down the family wealth and loaned the campaign five million dollars, while Obama is reported to have raised three million dollars yesterday alone, raising the question of how far will the Clintons go in financing her campaign, against Obama, the candidate with all the momentum Hillary was known as a tightwad, so this kind of financial drain must be painful indeed for her, and persuading Bill to cough up the dough from his gigs in Dubai, Kazakhstan and other erstwhile friendly states may be no picnic.

If the Democrats' contest lasts all the way to the convention floor, it will get down and dirty, possibly with Hillary needing to pressure super delegates and make a stink about seating the Florida and Michigan delegations, if she is to win. Americans, including conservatives, will be treated to the spectacle of Hillary Hardball being played on Obama, and Obama fighting back. This will serve as a handy reminder to the conservative base of how bad either Democrat alternative to McCain would be. 

How Many Conservatives Can McCain Lure Back?

Inevitably at least some conservatives will cool their passions between now and November and rally to defeat Clinton or Obama, unless Senator McCain further aggravates and alienates them during the campaign (a possibility that cannot be ruled out). But McCain potentially could expand the number by addressing both the substantive and emotional problems conservatives have had with his behavior. He must win both hearts and minds, to adopt a Vietnam era slogan. Today's scheduled speech by McCain at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) offers an opportunity to begin mending fences. 

On a substantive level, he has to emphasize the part of his record that is consistent with at bedrock conservative values, showing how very different he would be from the Democrats' nominee. His strongest case is in national defense, but he could leverage his record on fiscal restraint into a push for lower taxes while shrinking the deficit. McCain has a career rating of over 80% from the ACU, while his democratic opponents have approximately 10% ratings

Perhaps his biggest opportunity to neutralize previous damage is with immigration reform. He needs to make it clear that he no longer favors rewarding illegal residents with permanent residence or a shot at American citizenship, unless they pay some penalty and get back in line in some symbolically and substantively important way. If he is able backtrack and admit doing so, a door opens for him. 

McCain is almost uniquely endowed with the ability to speak meaningfully about the obligations of citizenship, having so spectacularly sacrificed personally in serving his nation. A ringing defense of the heroic service of immigrant soldiers who have earned American citizenship, along with a plan to reform naturalization processes to make it possible for legal immigration to better meet America's needs and interests, could turn the issue around.

In the realm of feelings, some form of direct or indirect apology can be a useful tool of reconciliation in normal group dynamics. But Senator McCain may not have it in him to apologize per se. But if in some form he acknowledges, directly or indirectly, that he regrets the stress he has created for conservatives, that would help his case on a purely emotional level. He might be able to get some mileage out of agreeing to hear out critics of global warming theory, or acknowledging problems with campaign finance reform, or consider reversing himself on ANWR drilling, painting a picture of a man who can learn from his mistakes.

At the same time, he has to avoid giving centrist voters the impression that he is knuckling under to the hard right. A tricky feat for even a sensitive feeling sort of guy, much less for a man who prides himself on speaking his mind and has a temper. A   bungled attempt could aggravate matters.

Mitt Romney at this moment is unlikley to be able to pick up momentum and secure the nomination, of course. Only time will tell.

But John McCain seems poorly equipped by temperament to winning over the hearts of alienated conservatives. Which creates the need, if not yet a supply, of conservative leaders willing to help nudge him along toward reconciliation by going a few baby steps forward themselves, in the interest of keeping the United States on the course to victory in Iraq and in the War on Terror.

Thomas Lifson is the editor and publisher of American Thinker.

[mtntop3]

You are on the mark. Your instincts are right. You can tell it by the disturbance of the wrinkled prunes.

[publana]

McCain has reminded me of Tanya Harding the last 8 years... running around clubbing conservatism on the knee.

Asking us to forget and vote for him is a bit much to swallow.

[JasonC]

I predict half the right will not get behind McCain, will continue to whine and scream clear to the general election, and he will win anyway - on security.

It will be beautiful to see the crestfallen self-appointed self-righteous strident "conservatives" realizing that no, they are not the Annointed, and anyone else's votes are just as good as theirs.

[FreePoster]

John McCain has a rating of 82%

The things that spring to my mind seem to amount to more than 18% -- more than 40% for that matter. He keeps that other side really secret, I guess.

[Gondring]

Choices:

• Campaign against Liberalism (no matter what party), or
• Send a message that conservatism is irrelevant, as we'll vote for them anyway.

I choose the former.

[JasonC]

Well for starters, it is necessary. Second, it isn't destroyed, and all the gloom is just ridiculous.

[Lucius Cornelius Sulla]

I am sorry, I am a corrupt, racist. bigot, McCain told me so. I am sure he doesn’t want to associate with trash like me by seeking my vote.

[RavenATB]

The question for conservative voters is this:
Do you want to vote for the Democrat who will undermine our liberty and our nation in the name of the opposition party? Or, would you prefer to vote for the Republican who will undermine our liberty and our nation in the name of your OWN PARTY?

[JasonC]

Fine, so don't.

No skin off my nose...

Just get over yourselves already.

[RavenATB]

“McCain is absolutely solid on the most important issues of our time. He is for defeating the terrorists in Iraq. He is pro life. He is for most traditional values.”

You failed to mention illegal immigration, which makes you one of two things...a deceiver, or an idiot.

[RavenATB]

“and Ronald Reagan signed the 1968 Abortion Act in California. he regreted it years later. Spent most of his life as a FDR Democrat, he changed.

did that make him a bad presidental candidate in 1980 ?”

John McBrainless supported illegal immigration amnesty last year. Let him return to us in 12 years if he’s had a “come to Jesus” on the issue, and maybe we’ll consider him.

[RavenATB]

“again, the MOST important issue of our time. defeating islamic terrorism.

Where did McCain go wrong ?”

Your asshole of a candidate would have our military heroes win the war on terrorism and return to an America that has been over-run by illegal aliens, who will, without a doubt, destroy America much more assuredly than Islamic terrorists ever could. And your candidate will be weaving their welcome mats.

[FreePoster]

John McCain is right on the terror war.

I can agree that that is probably reason enough to hold my nose, put a paper bag under my mouth, and vote for mcCain, but I don't see the GOP winning November under such circumstances.

Based on turnout, I see the biggest landslide GOP loss of my lifetime giving the presidency back to the worst people who have ever had it. Along with that, our disadvantages in Congress are likely to worsen due to the same turnout. Any SC Justices to retire in the next four (or eight?) years will be replaced with Marxists. Judging from the last eight Clinton years, they will be selling off America as fast as China and the Arab kings can buy it. These may be good reasons to vote for McCain despite him, but they don't get him elected.

[americanophile]

"In the realm of feelings, some form of direct or indirect apology can be a useful tool of reconciliation in normal group dynamics. But Senator McCain may not have it in him to apologize per se"

I agree with most of the article, but not this. Apologizing to conservatives isn't leadership, and it wouldn't be heartfelt anyway. It would be humiliating and awkward. I would prefer that he simply reconize that we have had differences, evidence a willingness to compromise with us the way he compromises with the Dems, and ask me for my support. I think his CPAC speech was a good start. Just my opinion.

[JasonC]

Bush had the same policy on that subject.

Name a single pol at the state wide (in an affected state) or national level, in my lifetime, who has had your preferred policy on it.

Sure you can find safe seat representatives. I'm asking for a name of any pol who has actually won a state wide or larger election. And not in Montana or something, in a state with a real immigrant population.

If literally no one passes your litmus test, you are simply ruling out absolutely everyone. You haven't convinced anyone that your policy preference in the matter is viable.

It is all hyperbole anyway. We've had immigration issues for generations and it hasn't destroyed the country. Legal immigration built it, in fact. Yes we should control the border, and keep immigration legal and stop the illegal kind. If you want to pretend people who agree with you that much but not further, are sellouts or wrecking the country, fine, you just rule out everyone and make yourself utterly irrelevant to state and national politics.

[RavenATB]

John McCain called every American who disagrees with his idiotic stand on illegal immigration “bigots.”

“F” him. I will not vote for John McCain, regardless the outcome of the election.

This is not a choice of the lesser of two evils. This is simply a contest for political power between three of the most unworthy presidential candidates in US history.

Remember this word: WIG!

[FreePoster]

Sounds like you have very vague notions on the matter of illegal immigration.

[RavenATB]

“Bush had the same policy on that subject.”

One of the reasons that “W” has such low appoval from within his own party.

“Name a single pol at the state wide (in an affected state) or national level, in my lifetime, who has had your preferred policy on it. “

I don’t care! What the hell is wrong with you? Do you think the right and wrong are determined by polls? No wonder you support this idiot!

“If literally no one passes your litmus test, you are simply ruling out absolutely everyone. You haven’t convinced anyone that your policy preference in the matter is viable. “

The Republican party is about to learn a very painful lesson; a lesson that’s been too long coming, but one that they’ll never forget. I suggest you brace yourself for what is about to come, because what was once “our” party...now “your” party, is likely soon to be come no party.

“We’ve had immigration issues for generations and it hasn’t destroyed the country. “

Wow, that was deep. So, using your “logic,” if I get cancer tomorrow and it doesn’t kill me within a few years, it must not be deadly.

[sanchmo]

Iraq
WOT
federal spending
supreme court appointees
government healthcare

I’d prefer having the party & the conservative movement stabbed in the back by McCain about everything else, if it means not letting Hillary/Obama stab the country in the gut in all of the above.

[Politicalmom]

30+ million illegals given instant citizenship will mean there will NEVER be conservative governing again.