Heilemann on the Democrats: What’s Hidden in the Latest Numbers

New York Magazine ^ | 2/ 6/08 | John Heilemann

[neverdem]

Like most people professionally preoccupied with the truly mind-blowing race for the Democratic presidential nomination — and even some folks whose fixation on it is purely recreational — I spent all of last night and much of today combing through the reams of numbers coughed up by 22 separate contests that took place on Super Tuesday. The delegate counts. The super-delegate counts. The exit-poll cross tabs. Oy vey. By now, if you’re reading this, you already know the basics. That Barack Obama won more states than Hillary Clinton (13-8, with New Mexico still in doubt as of this writing) and looks likely to have won a handful more delegates than she did, though she still retains the advantage because of her lead in super-delegates. The other thing you know is that, because Clinton beat Obama in four of the five biggest states that voted yesterday (California, New York, New Jersey, and Massachusetts), she came away having bested him in the overall popular vote. What you’re probably unaware of, however, is just how slender her margin was: 50.2-49.8 percent, according to some frantic digit-cruncher in the bowels of the Time-Life building. Yes, kids, it really was that close.

That closeness means, by all accounts, a race that now promises — or threatens, if you like — to play out until the Pennsylvania primary on April 22, if not all the way until the Democratic convention this September. There are countless ways of analyzing how this battle might unfold, but as long as we’re already in green-eyeshade territory, let me offer a few numbers that could well turn out to be particularly important in the days, weeks, and months ahead.

Nine. That’s the number of races on the calendar between now and the end of February. Of them, four are caucuses (Nebraska, Washington, Maine, and Hawaii), four are primaries with a large percentage of African-American voters (Louisiana, Maryland, Virginia, and D.C.), and one is the primary in Wisconsin, a state with a long tradition of pragmatic progressivism and a bent toward retail politics. All of which is to say that there’s a reasonable chance that nine is also the number of races in a row that Clinton will lose before we get to Ohio and Texas, where she is favored. And if that’s the case, the momentum accruing to Obama may prove overwhelming.

69-29. That’s the split between HRC and BHO among Hispanics in California. For the second time running (the first being Nevada), the Obama campaign made a huge push for Latino votes on Super Tuesday. And for the second time running, the candidate simply got crushed. The endorsements of Ted Kennedy and any number of Hispanic leaders seemed to help the hopemonger not a whit. Beyond the long-term worries this inspires about Obama if he wins the nomination, there’s the short-range matter of Texas: the single biggest delegate prize left on the calendar, and one in which Hispanics made up 15 percent of the electorate in 2006, just a little shy of their proportion in California. If Obama can’t improve among Latinos, he can kiss the Lone Star State good-bye.

500ish. That’s the rough number of super-delegates as yet uncommitted to either HRC (who has about 200) or BHO (about 100.) The super-delegates, in case you happen to be wondering, are party big shots: Democratic members of Congress, members of the DNC, Democratic governors, and former party leaders. In a normal year, they don’t matter much; they just pile in behind the party’s consensus choice. But this is not a normal year (duh) and it’s perfectly conceivable, if perfectly appalling, that they may determine the nominee, especially if the race remains undecided by the time of the convention.

$32 million, $13 million, $5 million, and $20 million. The first of these is how much the Obama campaign raised in January — a staggering figure. The second is how much the Clinton campaign raised that month — a relative pittance. The third is the amount, we learned today, that Hillary personally loaned her campaign in the past couple of weeks. And the fourth is the amount that her husband, Bill, is reported to be due as a payout after severing his ties with Ron Burkle — and which, presumably, will soon be available to pay for TV ads in Texas and Ohio.

That the Clintons are now rolling down the path blazed this election cycle by Mitt Romney may raise eyebrows. Is it wise? Maybe, maybe not. But one assumes that they wouldn’t be doing it were it not necessary. And that kind of necessity may add up to a world of trouble. —

[ThePythonicCow]

Hmmm ... Obama's odds seem to be improving.

He could be tough to beat in November. He's a natural campaigner. McCain's not, and McCain's worked very hard over the last decade to lose the support of the Republican base.

[Poincare]

As the population of latinos grows the possibility of a black being elected to high office diminishes. BHO said he got 75 percent of the latino vote in his Illinois Senate bid, but that was when he was running against the darker hued Alan Keyes. The latino vote defeated Steele in Maryland ruining the hope of seating a fine black conservative.

[Carry_Okie]

Barak Obama = Bobby Kennedy

I fear in more ways than a few.

[Bushwacker777]

Really interesting. One thing not pointed out is that not only are many Hispanics not fond of black people but also that in a general election pitting a woman against a man (McCain) who served in Vietnam you’ll get the “machismo” thing working for the Republicans. Hillary is a woman, John is a man — to many traditional Hispanics that in and of itself is a huge factor. Second, Hispanics love the military image thing and McCain is a war hero.

Maybe if Hillary grew a moustache, started going to bull finghts and laid a huge kiss on Huma she could try to get some of that machismo thing going? Nah!

[ME-262]

How dare you imply Hispanics are racist! We all know that only white males can be bigoted. right?

[neverdem]

The GOP goes nuts with RINOs at the same time their enemies want to kill each other. Go figure.

The Cooper Concerns (1993 Hillary: "We'll crush you. You'll wish you never mention this to me")

Obama and the Culture Wars

MCCAIN'S STILL GOT A LONG WAY TO GO

Russia suspicious over Iran test

From time to time, I’ll ping on noteworthy articles about politics, foreign and military affairs. FReepmail me if you want on or off my list.

[hocndoc]

Now that Huckabee is telling us that Dobson’s not a conservative, and that McCain is (and that no one turns down the vice Presidency, hint, hint) maybe people will see what they missed. Give me a reluctant servant leader who believes in free will (let’s see, Who invented that system?) and State’s rights over a “fire in the belly” narcissist that knows what’s good for you and is willing to force you with taxes or at gun point to do good. And give the megalomaniac with obscenities for anyone who disagrees with his eructations a Zofran pump and a change of diet, not praise and the Presidency.

Here’s a couple of good reviews of how we got to where we are today, focused on Thompson’s withdrawal.

http://beldar.blogs.com/beldarblog/2008/01/regarding-the-t.html
http://weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/014/649xhmla.asp?pg=1

[gov_bean_ counter]

Maybe if Hillary grew a mustache,

or not shave for a few days...

[Enchante]

Shrillary can easily start ‘passing’ for a man anytime she wants to..... she’s always the butch in the relationship anyway......

[AmericaUnited]

As the population of latinos grows the possibility of a black being elected to high office diminishes. BHO said he got 75 percent of the latino vote in his Illinois Senate bid, but that was when he was running against the darker hued Alan Keyes. The latino vote defeated Steele in Maryland ruining the hope of seating a fine black conservative.

That is a very interesting point. McCain would get a huge latino vote vs Obama.

[saganite]

I agree. If Obama gets the nomination and McCain is the Rep. nominee he will win the presidency, maybe convincingly.

[Mila]

".......but also that in a general election pitting a woman against a man (McCain) who served in Vietnam you’ll get the “machismo” thing working for the Republicans. Hillary is a woman, John is a man — to many traditional Hispanics that in and of itself is a huge factor. Second, Hispanics love the military image thing and McCain is a war hero."

That may be true, but there are always exceptions. Don't forget her,

Christina Fernandez de Kirchner first woman elected President of Argentina. She ran against another woman and a man getting 45% of the vote. She was elected while her husband was STILL president of Argentina. In other words she succeeded him.

http://xicanopwr.com/2007/10/argentinas-first-woman-president/

or her

Michelle Bachelet first woman elected President of Chile. She ran against three men, and in a runoff got over 50% of the vote.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/4087510.stm I don't know

[6SJ7]

Hillary is a woman...

I think the jury is still out on that.

[MIchaelTArchangel]

Question asked of McInsane by a elderly woman: "How do we beat the b1tch?"

Tha answer apparently is: We don't. The Democrats will do that for us.

[Alamo-Girl]

Thanks for the ping!

[SunkenCiv]

By now, if you're reading this, you already know the basics. That Barack Obama won more states than Hillary Clinton (13-8, with New Mexico still in doubt as of this writing) and looks likely to have won a handful more delegates than she did, though she still retains the advantage because of her lead in super-delegates. The other thing you know is that, because Clinton beat Obama in four of the five biggest states that voted yesterday (California, New York, New Jersey, and Massachusetts), she came away having bested him in the overall popular vote. What you're probably unaware of, however, is just how slender her margin was: 50.2-49.8 percent, according to some frantic digit-cruncher in the bowels of the Time-Life building.

I love that -- "her lead in super-delegates" -- the fix was in before she ever announced her candidacy.

• What role for Democratic 'super-delegates'?
  Governors, senators, state chairs, and even Bill Clinton get automatic vote
• Lieberman No Longer a Super Delegate
• The Tyranny of Super-Delegates by Katrina vanden Heuvel

[SunkenCiv]

Oops, and Thanks neverdem. :’)

[neverdem]

Thanks for the links. Ferguson’s account of Presidential campaign history was earily similar to another piece that I read recently. Maybe he was the author of both? Regardless, what we have now is for the birds. Pray for divine intervention and the republic.

[hocndoc]

Lots of prayer is needed.

I keep remembering the book of Judges, with the Lord turning Israel over to other countries and their kings when the Israelites turned from Him. And Nebuchadnezzar being made mad.

Maybe what we need is a Deborah to lead our leaders into right action or a Sampson willing to pull the walls down around him to fight the enemy.