I beg to disagree.
What southern state(s) did John Kerry win in 2004? I don't have the election results offhand, but I would guess that Kerry won NONE of them, not a single one.
Having said that, the election in '04 hinged on a single state: Ohio. If Ohio had been won by Kerry (and it was fairly close there), he would be president today.
All the 'rats need to do to win in 2008 is carry the same states they won in 2004, plus Ohio. Then they can win withOUT a single southern state.
And the Republican "brand" in Ohio is in the tank this election cycle, due to the past - and awful - performances by Pubbies in that state.
The South is losing the importance and weight it once had in determining presidential contests. For now, it remains "solidly red", and is likely to stay that way, at least for a few more election cycles. Yet, even the states of the Old Confederacy are in danger of "turning purple" and then going blue: look at Virginia, or even North Carolina.
What is really cornering the South into presidential irrelevance is the changing nature of _other_ states in the Midwest and Mountain areas, along with the loss of California as a "once-competitive" states for the Republicans. Look at Colorado, fast turning purple, soon-to-be blue. And Arizona and New Mexico, in ten years or less, they will be blue states. Eventually, the only reliably-red states may be down south, and the northern mountain states like Wyoming, Utah, Montana, and the Dakotas.
I don't like the changes any more than you do - but they can no longer be denied or wished away.
Just my thoughts,
- John
President Kerry didn’t carry a single southern state.
I rest my case.