Wednesday, January 30, 2008
MITT ROMNEY, JOHN MCCAIN, MIKE HUCKABEE
Looking Ahead to Super Tuesday
A McCain-friendly strategist looks at the Super Tuesday map and sees some opportunities for Romney, but probably not enough. Massachusetts (41 delegates) is a gimme (probably by a wide margin), and if the pro-Romney turnout from Mormons in Utah (36 delegates) is on par with the turnout in Nevada, it should be in the Romney pile. Romney has some high-profile endorsements in Missouri (58 delegates) and Colorado (a caucus state, 46 delegates), so presumably with those endorsees' help in the ground game, he could do okay.
One poll in Colorado looks good for Romney. The last ones in Missouri have shown Huckabee, McCain, and Romney all pretty close together.
Looking at the other states...
Alaska? (29 delegates) I've found only one poll in this state, from December, and it put Ron Paul in first place.
Arizona? (53 delegates, winner take all) McCain.
Arkansas? (34 delegates, allocated by district and who wins statewide) Huckabee, obviously.
Alabama? (48 delegates, mixed, somewhat proportional) Probably Huckabee, but some polls show McCain close.
California (173 delegates, divided by congressional district) will be this insane dogfight, with delegates distributed on a per-congressional-district basis, but McCain's ahead of Romney and Huckabee in current polls. With the Rudy endorsement and the help of Rudy's ground game operations, McCain should walk away with at least a healthy plurality, if not a majority of California's delegates.
Connecticut? (30 delegates, winner take all) Looking good for McCain.
Delaware? (18 delegates,winner take all) A lot of folks figured this was Giuliani territory, but I found one poll giving it to Romney.
Georgia? (72 delegates, winner take all) Most folks have been giving it to Huckabee, and polls concur.
Illinois? (70 delegates, based more or less by district) The latest poll puts McCain up, 31 percent to 20 percent. Romney will walk away with some delegates, but it'll probably be another silver medal.
Minnesota? (40 delegates, a hopelessly complicated caucus system) A Star-Tribune poll from last fall put Giuliani in first, McCain in second.
Hugh Hewitt puts Montana (25 delegates) in Romney's pile, and if Romney's run strong anywhere so far, it's been the west. Even though it's a caucus, it's effectively winner take all.
New Jersey? (52 delegates, winner take all) McCain led with Giuliani in it. We'll have to see where the Rudy voters go, but you figure the endorsement will bring over at least some of them.
? (101 delegates, winner take all) Similar story to New Jersey - McCain was up with Giuliani in it; he should remain in front.
North Dakota? (26 delegates, winner take all if he gets more than two thirds, otherwise proportionally). I cannot find any polls for North Dakota. Mitt Romney won a straw poll out there with 29 percent. I'll put it in his pile.
Oklahoma? (41 delegates, some to who wins each district, some to who wins statewide) The most recent poll puts McCain up; before that it was Huckabee.
Tennessee (55 delegates, winner takes all if they hit 50 percent, otherwise based on who wins each district and 13 to who wins statewide): A January poll had Thompson in first place, but Huckabee well ahead of McCain and Romney.
West Virginia (30 delegates, but only 9 on primary day, 3 per congressional district): The only poll I could find was from nearly a year ago. For what it's worth, it put McCain way ahead of Romney or Huckabee, but in March of last year, few had heard of those guys.
In the Romney pile, we’ll probably have about five to seven wins, and the delegates most of Massachusetts, all of Utah, all of Montana, most of Colorado, all of Missouri, and if that poll is correct, all of Delaware, and perhaps most of North Dakota's. And he’ll get some of California’s.
I put him at about 200 to 250 delegates.
In the Huckabee pile, we’ll have Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, Georgia, and maybe he’ll get some of California’s.
I put him around 200.
In the McCain pile, we’ll have all of Arizona, all of New York, all of New Jersey, all of Connecticut, probably the largest chunk of California’s, probably most of Minnesota's, probably majorities in Oklahoma and West Virginia.
I put him around somewhere north of 400 delegates.
Alaska may go for Ron Paul, and he may get a majority of their 29 delegates.
That would put things at about McCain at 500+ (needing 1,191 to be the nominee), Romney at 325, Huckabee at 230 or so.
01/30 04:13 PM
