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On Closed Primaries (FL 2008)
Captain's Quarters ^ | Jan. 30, 2008 | Ed Morrissey

Posted on 01/30/2008 4:39:42 AM PST by jdm

A number of commenters in my threads from Florida's primary seem confused about what a closed primary means, and what its limits are. Michelle Malkin and Flip Pidot also blogged about this overnight, but miss the point of exit polling showing voter inclinations and not actual registration. Having lived most of my life in closed-primary states, I can tell CapQ readers that the exit polling should surprise no one.

Florida's rules on primary voting and registration are clear:

Florida is a closed primary election state. That means, only voters who are registered members of the two major political parties (Democrats and Republicans) may vote in a primary election for partisan candidates. Registered minor political party voters and voters who register without a party affiliation are not eligible to voter for major party candidates in a primary election. However, if all candidates for an office in an election have the same party affiliation and the winner will have no opposition in the general election, all qualified voters, regardless of party affiliation, may vote in the primary election. Also regardless of party affiliation, all registered voters can vote on issues and non-partisan candidates.

Closed-primary states typically prepare three ballots for their primary elections: Democrats, Republicans, and non-partisan. When a voter comes to the polling center, their listing carries their registration, and they receive the applicable ballot. That way, the state and the political parties can assure themselves that only registered Republicans even see the Republican candidates on the ballot, Democrats likewise, and independents and minor-party candidates only see the non-partisan races and initiatives.

This depends on registration, of course. Florida requires any registration changes to take place at least 29 days before an election. In my experience in California, independents would often re-register as either Democrats or Republicans in order to participate in primaries, and then re-register again as independents for the general election. It's perfectly legal, and it is part of the normal primary process. Most of the time it makes no difference at all, because most primaries of late have not had the same wide-open quality of this one after the first three or four states.

In this case, exit polls show "party identification" statistics that put 20% of the voters outside of the Republican Party. That's their stated personal identification, not their actual party registration for last night's primaries. That's not a bug, it's a feature, and it's unavoidable -- unless major parties want to stop re-registering voters altogether. I'm actually a little surprised that only 3% of the vote came from re-registered Democrats, considering the uselessness of their own primary this year, which still attracted over 1.6 million voters to the 1.8 million who voted in the GOP contest. Three percent of that vote would have been 54,000 voters, and yet McCain won by almost 100,000.

Republicans need to look elsewhere for answers. No one robbed us of a closed primary in Florida. Even among self-identified Republicans in this exit poll split equally between McCain and Romney, so it isn't as if Republicans didn't significantly support the winner of this contest.


TOPICS: Editorial; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: fl2008; marines

1 posted on 01/30/2008 4:39:44 AM PST by jdm
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To: jdm

The traffic surge in the last few days says otherwise.


2 posted on 01/30/2008 4:44:45 AM PST by Tarpon (Ignorance, the most expensive commodity produced by mankind.)
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To: jdm
In this case, exit polls show "party identification" statistics that put 20% of the voters outside of the Republican Party

17% called themselves independents. Romney lost by 5%.

Do the math!

3 posted on 01/30/2008 4:47:18 AM PST by airborne (The Founding Fathers would be deeply saddened.)
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To: jdm

Interesting. Thanks for posting.


4 posted on 01/30/2008 4:47:46 AM PST by PGalt
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To: airborne

5% fo 17% is 0.85%, not enough margin to make any difference in the outcome.


5 posted on 01/30/2008 5:05:05 AM PST by jveritas (God bless our brave troops and President Bush)
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To: jdm

What is an Independent? An Independent is a Democrat who won’t admit it.

To me, it looks like the Independents have taken over the GOP. It’s bad for the GOP, but the interesting thing is that it might also be bad for the Democrats in the end—at least those who continue to admit they are Democrats.


6 posted on 01/30/2008 5:09:27 AM PST by Brilliant
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To: jveritas

17% of 100 is 17% of the total voters casting ballots yesterday. They easily could have voted 12-7 in favor of McCain, which is the difference in this election. The state party rigged this thing, and as a FL citizen I am disgusted. This state party abandoned the Senate race in ‘06, not putting up a candidate and then publicly sinking the nominated candidate. Now this. I am sick to my stomach. The very insider money and power structure that McCain supposedly fights against is the only thing letting him win this nomination.


7 posted on 01/30/2008 5:13:36 AM PST by ilgipper
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To: ilgipper
Republicans need to look elsewhere for answers. No one robbed us of a closed primary in Florida. Even among self-identified Republicans in this exit poll split equally between McCain and Romney, so it isn't as if Republicans didn't significantly support the winner of this contest.

That is from the article and it is 100% correct.

8 posted on 01/30/2008 5:21:20 AM PST by jveritas (God bless our brave troops and President Bush)
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To: jdm

Just wondering if there has been any hint of Rats registering GOP so they could vote McCain. Given that it was essentially a non-primary for them and their apparent desire to have have McCain as the nominee? Its been known for some time that the FL Dem primary was a non factor and the ability of the left to be able to rally their comrades for anything that wreaks of underhandedness I believe it is possible. Not that months ago they knew they would be voting McCain but knew they could effect the vote in their favor. Just curious.


9 posted on 01/30/2008 5:23:42 AM PST by Archon of the East (Universal Executive Power of the Law of Nature)
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To: Archon of the East

Nvm, ill read the full article next time


10 posted on 01/30/2008 5:27:46 AM PST by Archon of the East (Universal Executive Power of the Law of Nature)
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To: Archon of the East
I don’t recall seeing any reports about the numbers of people who were changing parties in the last few months. I’m sure those numbers are available, but I don’t know that I’ve seen them anywhere. That makes me wonder. I hate to be part of the tinfoil head wear group, but knowing the MSM as I do these days what’s not reported is frequently more telling than what IS reported.

Maybe I just missed the report that had it, but I’m pretty compulsive about following these things. My therapist and I are working on this character defect, but I fear I’m still several years away from getting a handle on it.

11 posted on 01/30/2008 5:32:09 AM PST by jwparkerjr (Sigh . . .)
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To: jdm

Given the importance, the history of McCain, the RNC and the Florida voter, it may not be much of a stretch that some monkey business was done in that sanctuary/mecca state of FL!


12 posted on 01/30/2008 5:36:04 AM PST by iopscusa (El Vaquero. (SC Lowcountry Cowboy))
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To: jwparkerjr

I guess when its all said and done McCain unfortunately did win FL. This race is by no means over but apparently we are losing the battle of principles. If McCain can be considered a Conservative by any stretch of the imagination then we in fact have lost the war. It wont be long before we are required to fly the flag above ours. Good bye John Locke. Its been along time coming but the left nearly has all the pieces in place.


13 posted on 01/30/2008 5:41:32 AM PST by Archon of the East (Universal Executive Power of the Law of Nature)
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To: ilgipper

Of the 17% “Independents”, 44% of those or 7.48% voted for McCain. 33% of those or 5.61% voted for Romney. That is less than a two point difference, so it did not affect the final outcome, but it did allow some ineligible voters to cast ballots. Had the margin of victory been less that 1.5% there would be hell to pay.


14 posted on 01/30/2008 5:49:05 AM PST by TommyDale (Never forget the Republicans who voted for illegal immigrant amnesty in 2007!)
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To: Archon of the East
One reason the Left can reach this point is that they embrace the policy of incrementalsim. Conservatives don’t have that luxury. Rightly or wrongly we can’t bring ourselves to cipher the goods and bads and then go on the totality of the candidate. No matter how strong we think McCain is on the war if illegal immigration is big to us then we say we can’t go with McCain, and on and on.

The difference between ‘us’ and ‘them’ is that they will support a slime ball like Bubba for eight plus years if he embraces even one of their pet beliefs. Best evidence of that is the deaf ear feminists turned to Bubba’s womanizing in return for his support of abortion.

I simply cannot support McCain, despite the high regard I have for him and his record of serving his country as a fighter pilot. That was 30 years ago, immigration and the other problems I have with him are today.

I used to get really tired of single women having babies and then using ‘the children’ to keep society from imposing on them the responsibility of being a mother. They could do drugs, choose unemployment, etc. and the rest of us couldn’t bring ourselves to come down on them because they were in a position of transferring our tough love to problems for their children. So they just went on having babies and with everyone they solidified their ability to use ‘the children’ to work the system.

It might be true, but damn I’m tired of hearing if I don’t roll over and support John McCain then I’m dooming America to eight years of liberal supreme court justices, etc.

What I really resent is the Republican Party using my very devotion to the country I love to beat me over the head with having to vote for the party anointed.

What I REALLY resent is a party that is so damned stubborn and selfish that it will make me choose between accepting their line or suffering through eight years of Clinton or Obama if that what it takes to snuff out the Party elites once and for all.

15 posted on 01/30/2008 5:57:57 AM PST by jwparkerjr (Sigh . . .)
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To: jveritas

Not the correct formula.

If 17% of voters were “independents” (curious, considering it’s supposed to be a closed primary), it would only take 1/3 of those voters to take a win from Romney and give it to McCain.


16 posted on 01/30/2008 6:24:50 AM PST by airborne (The Founding Fathers would be deeply saddened.)
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To: jwparkerjr

You hit the nail square on the head. We keep on letting them, the leftists, define the issues in their Orwellian speak and the GOP does little to correct the misrepresentations.


17 posted on 01/30/2008 6:28:37 AM PST by Archon of the East (Universal Executive Power of the Law of Nature)
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To: Archon of the East

Tampa Tribune ran an article that stated just that. It said that thousands reregistered so they could vote in the GOP primary. I think also they reregistered a bunch of Hispanics in Miami to vote for McCain. It was rigged by Martinez and the RATS.

You see McCain is a mean vindictive man. He is going to shove this amnesty down our throats whether we like it or not. Look at how he has acted because President Buh beat him in 2000.


18 posted on 01/30/2008 7:36:54 AM PST by lone star annie
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To: lone star annie
Its worse than just amnesty, McCain also is a faithful follower of the one of the most fanatical religious groups. He worships at the alter of the pagan god of Anthropogenic Global Warming.
19 posted on 01/30/2008 7:49:17 AM PST by Archon of the East (Universal Executive Power of the Law of Nature)
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To: FreeReign
One more for you. Have to make your own judgement but consider: Demcrats were deprived of delegates for the primary convention. Nothing to lose. Could register same day as voting per multiple reports. McCain wins on new independents and demorats voting repukeblican.
20 posted on 02/01/2008 3:38:55 PM PST by Caipirabob (Communists... Socialists... Democrats...Traitors... Who can tell the difference?)
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