Let's see . . . do we want to go DIRECTLY to Hell with Hillary
Posted on 01/29/2008 8:38:37 PM PST by jdm
With more than two-thirds of the precincts reporting, John McCain has won an impressive victory in Florida's Republican primary. Many people questioned whether Senator McCain could win a closed GOP contest, as up to now he had won in New Hampshire and South Carolina through the assistance of crossover voting from Democrats and independents. Those questions have now been answered, at least in Florida.
What does this mean for the Super Tuesday contests coming up in a week? It appears that the race has narrowed down to McCain and Romney. McCain will enter February 5th with more delegates, but only 10% of what he needs to win the nomination. He will have a great deal of momentum and credibility, and Romney will have relinquished some. Almost certainly, McCain becomes the favorite to win the nomination.
However, Romney has a better national organization and more resources to run in 21 states simultaneously. He can negate some of the momentum and make this a delegate chase, and could very possibly come out of next week with a delegate lead. It won't be easy, especially since the McCain win in Florida will only bolster McCain's lead in the coastal states.
If the race really does come down to McCain and Romney, then Romney could also benefit from conservative disaffection with McCain. In the GOP, there exists a very real resistance to McCain, and that could find itself focusing on Romney as the anti-McCain. It's not the most positive phenomenon, but Romney may find it essential for a national victory.
Rudy Giuliani may hold the key. Rumors have floated that Giuliani will withdraw and endorse McCain. If he does, that may be enough to push McCain even further towards inevitability -- or it may not have any effect at all. Rudy's speech in Florida strongly hinted that he has come to the end of the road. If so, we will know soon; the Republicans will debate in California tomorrow night, and Rudy won't bother to appear unless he plans to contest elections on Super Tuesday.
At least for this evening, John McCain deserves some accolades. He hung tough and showed he could beat the field in a closed primary, and not by an insignificant amount, as his vote gap over Romney already exceeds 70,000.
UPDATE: McCain, in his victory speech, made a very clear attempt to be gracious towards all of the candidates, including Romney, and reach out to Reagan-coalition conservatives. Rumor has it that McCain is considering a visit to CPAC next week. I hope he does make an appearance there and speak as honestly and forthrightly about his candidacy with the foot soldiers of conservative activism. If he does win the nomination, he will need those activists behind him.
UPDATE II: He also insists that judges must understand their limited role in applying law and not creating policy. I wouldn't be surprised if that didn't get added after the John Fund article.
Rumor has it that McCain is considering a visit to CPAC next week. I hope he does make an appearance there and speak as honestly and forthrightly about his candidacy with the foot soldiers of conservative activism. If he does win the nomination, he will need those activists behind him.
Good point. That shamnesty went down in flames in spite of Bush support for it. The plain fact is that a clear majority of Americans see the threat to our nation from illegals and are sick of it. Although it's hard to call them "Americans", even a large number of democrats oppose it.
Republicans are F’n doomed with this jackass as a front runner.
The Republican base was fractionalized, and the english and latin media have pampered McCain. McCain’s ties to Soros, Univision, Dr. Juan, and the Reform Institute stink. Seriously, we now have 2 Soros candidates—the Dem and McCain. The Republicans have walked into a Dole scenario.
20 demorat senators voted against shamnesty.
Best Sci-Fi series ever!!! Pure Genius.
Conservatives rescued the GOP from political oblivion, and yet it’s the Rockefeller Republicans who are calling all of the shots. Unfortunately, they’re going to lead the party to a massive defeat in November. Who are the new conservative faces who can lead the GOP in the next few years? Who are the future stars of this party?
If a frog had wings.......
It's pointless to engage in "what if". What happened in Florida today is history. There are no conservative candidates running.
5% in some states is the reason we are lucky not to have John Kerry in the whitehouse.. trust me 5% when millions vote is a lot of votes.
“I don’t think Rudy voters naturally go to McCain.”
My wife and I just completed our Calif. absentee ballots and voted for Mitt. We were waiting to see if Rudy was still a viable candidate.
It’s interesting how this has come about. The Republican party has long had it’s moderate (or liberal if you wish) wing and it’s conservative wing. In this campaign, the conservative voting wing didn’t rally to any of the candidates calling themselves conservatives. Huck, Fred and Romney all had their failings, and so the votes were split between them, knocking each of them out in turn. Now, after cannibalizing the conservative wing we are left with McCain, the most liberal of all. Rudy could have split off some of the McCain vote, but his strategy collapsed due to the giant media eye which directs attention wherever it favors. Rudy didn’t contest early, and the media eye left him.
As an old 50’s TV star used to say, “What a revoltin’ development this is!”
Especially in the Hispanic community with the aid of the two Florida Reps and Mel Martinez.
sounds like huckabee’s “win”
Exit polls do show moderates and proabort voters went for mcCain. McCain also won in Miami-Dade, he got a huge margin there far beyond anything Romney could do elsewhere. What did it? Proamnesty Senator Martinez put calls around in Spanish for McCain (CNN reported), lots of robocalls went out. That, plus Gov Crist helped McCain go over the top.
The only hope to stop McCain is for conservatives to 'come together on Mitt'.
“I don’t think Rudy voters naturally go to McCain.”
No biggie but I didn't say it.
“Give the Dems the Presidency for 4 years. Who cares?”
I care. I dont want to lose the momentum in the Federal courts. I dont want the liberals to infest the fed govt.
Cultural Marxism would advance massively. Taxes rates woudl go in wrong way, fixing entitlements? forget it.
oh, and amnesty would be a sure thing.
Bugt many of the bad things would happen under McCain only the Republican party would get blamed.
Romney is our only hope to stop the RINO McCain nomination.
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