There wasn't a primary cause. It was a perfect storm. I think Romney's camp did a great job of spreading the "Fred's lazy" mantra which Huckabee picked up all to easily. Huckabee benefitted in Iowa from being an unknown. By the time people figured him out, Iowa was over. Dobson hurt Fred immensely in a place he should have been strong, evangelical conservatives. I don't think Christians are mind-numbed robots. I do think the average Christian (or average self-identified Republican for that matter) doesn't have any idea how an Amendment to the Constitution is passed. So, when Huckabee said "Thompson's against a Defense of Marriage Amendment" they were swayed. Ditto for RLA.
Finally, I think the conservative media ignored his campaign. Fox clearly bought into the establishment candidacies of Rudy and McCain. And you could not read an article about Fred without seeing "fire in the belly" somewhere within it. Additionally, campaigning as an adult does not draw media attention. Slamming others does. So, his running a campaign as an adult was a mistake.
So, it wasn't just Dobson. It wasn't just evangelicals. It wasn't just Fred. It wasn't just slimy, smarmy Huckabee and his illegal push polls (looking forward to his FEC report on Jan. 31st). It was all of those. And some more.
Thanks for that succinct analysis of Fred’s campaign problems. I find myself nodding in agreement.
Fred was always going to have trouble with Evangelicals, as the SoCon vs. Fred wars here attested.
In the first place, being non-practicing (non-church-going) and divorced are two big, big hurdles. Saying his faith was not going to be a big part of his campaign was another huge problem. Those things alone would tend to lean evangelicals away from him, and toward a more "Christian" candidate.
Add in his history with McCain-Feingold, which castrated the political speech of Christian organizations, dissing the Value Voters Debate as nearly his first official act, and coming out against the two Christian sponsored amendments.
All that together plus Dobson... there's your perfect storm.