Posted on 01/24/2008 8:01:05 AM PST by Liz
DEERFIELD BEACH, Fla. - Rudy Giuliani splurged on Florida, lavishing time and money on a high-risk gamble that the state would vault him to the Republican presidential nomination. Five days before his make-or-break primary, all that last year's national front-runner has to show for the love he's given the Sunshine State is a diminished standing. "We are gaining support. I think you'll see that over the next few days," Giuliani insisted Wednesday, hours before a new poll showed him trailing John McCain and Mitt Romney. Florida was supposed to be "Rudy Country."
His game plan called for playing down earlier-voting states for a laser focus on Florida and its 57-delegate prize. He pumped more than $3 million into advertising and planted himself here, counting on a win to give him unbeatable momentum going into the voting by nearly two dozen states on Feb. 5. The nomination was to follow. All that now is in danger.
McCain and Romney grabbed headlines by winning states that voted earlier; Giuliani won nothing and stayed out of the picture. Polls this week, even in his home state of New York, an expected bulwark for him on Feb. 5, showed him tied or behind. His once huge advantage in California is no more, either.
In Florida, a new poll shows McCain and Romney neck-and-neck for the lead, with 25 percent and 23 percent, respectively, while Giuliani and Mike Huckabee trail at 15 percent. More than one-fourth of the likely voters surveyed between Sunday and Tuesday — 27 percent — said they still may change their minds. The poll was sponsored by the St. Petersburg Times, The Miami Herald and Bay News 9. Undeterred, Giuliani said, "We are going to accomplish it against the odds."
He argued that his message just needs a little more time to sink in. He's the only Republican supporting a national catastrophic insurance fund important to many hurricane-weary and cash-strapped Floridians, he has what he calls the largest tax-cut proposal of any candidate and says he has the most relevant government experience. "As these ideas seep through, I think we're going to do well here," Giuliani said.
It's possible that absentee and early voters could give Giuliani a bump in Tuesday's primary. He has get-out-the-vote programs catering to both, and these voters would have cast ballots before Giuliani's decline and McCain's ascent. He's also counting on a large number of New York retirees in Florida to carry him to victory, but its unclear how many are registered to vote, let alone as a Republican. This isn't the first time Giuliani has tried to compete only to hit a rocky patch.
He peppered Iowans with mailed campaign literature and some $300,000 in radio advertisements, only to finish sixth behind little-known Texas Rep. Ron Paul in the leadoff contest. New Hampshire's primary proved embarrassing as well with more than $3 million spent on ads and mail and countless visits — and a fourth-place showing.
"Everywhere this guy has gone, he's faded," said GOP strategist Tony Fabrizio, a Republican pollster. As polls shifted, Giuliani has changed his story on Florida's importance. "It's all about Florida," he said Monday. Now, his campaign says the state merely is an "important" part of the race — though it's unclear whether he has the money to be competitive later.
Senior aides have forgone paychecks this month. Giuliani was getting beat 2-1 earlier this week in TV-ad spending in several of the state's expensive media markets; he poured more money to his buys late Wednesday, which may have brought him to parity.
Alone for weeks in Florida, Giuliani taunted his opponents Saturday as they competed in South Carolina. "We're waiting for you," he said then.
Judging from the last few days, he would just as soon have them leave again. Giuliani faced crowds that were a bit flat and small early this week. He got polite applause in a large but half-empty community hall in Sun City Center, where retirement is the local industry. And only a few dozen people showed up at the aptly chosen Presidential Ballroom at Church Street, a banquet facility near downtown Orlando. He took precious time away from Florida on Tuesday to fly to New York to collect campaign cash, leaving his schedule light — only four public events in three days. He devoted other time to media interviews and cutting a final Florida ad.
Earlier this week, Giuliani's campaign also appeared to squander a golden opportunity when McCain said he does not support the federally backed catastrophic insurance fund. Instead of seizing on the comment himself, Giuliani left it to aides and surrogates who got little attention. He rolled out an advertisement seeking to strike a contrast with the Arizona senator — but it didn't name McCain and was aimed only for the Internet, not the vastly wider reach of TV. On Thursday, his campaign announced that the spot would, indeed, be broadcast on TV.
At one point, Giuliani made an unscheduled visit to the Daytona International Speedway for a photo op of the former mayor speeding in circles in his campaign bus around the racetrack inside the empty stadium, perhaps an almost too-perfect metaphor for his effort here. Wednesday in Estero, he even gave the impression of being bored with his own message. "I've given this lecture on leadership so many times, I could probably do it in my sleep," he said to laughter.
By evening, though, his campaign staged a rally that served as an unexpected counterpoint to the bad news. bout 1,000 people filled a plaza along the beach town of Naples' main street and crammed an adjacent Irish pub where Giuliani was just supposed to shake a few hands and make remarks. It turned out to be the largest, most welcoming crowd Giuliani drew all week, though a request for a show of hands from an introductory speaker revealed that a sizable portion was from New York — not Florida. Despite some testy feelings about a long wait, people cheered repeatedly and mobbed the restaurant to try to get to him. The enthusiasm had Giuliani unusually animated. He seemed to argue, without saying it directly, that the polling is bogus.
"We're going to surprise everyone," he shouted into a microphone, standing among the restaurants' outdoor tables. "And we're going to win big here. Florida is going to catapult us to the nomination because Florida is going to vote in a way that I think people don't even realize." Jennifer Loven reported from Naples, Fla.
His wife is a social-climbing wanabe who stalked the married Mayor at a cigar bar. She had already blown through a couple husbands........one of which she belatedly owned up to just last spring. Rooty did not even know about husband number one. That musta made interestng breakfast conversation when Rudy cracked open the morning papers.
Rooty's secrecy about his global business operations and his associations with mobbed-up Bernie Kerik (Rooty's former driver, bodyguard, Police Commissioner, business partner, failed Homeland nominee, admmitted felon and tax evader (in that order) who is under federal investigation for lying to the WH.
FREEPER STOCKTRADER sums it up. "Rudy's “campaign” will go down as one of the most inept in modern history. If he loses Florida--where he has virtually LIVED for the last few months--his campaign will have exceeded Howard Dean's when it comes to ineptitude (and Rudy didn't even have to scream. It will be the mismanagement standard.....and model.....for all future "how-NOT-to-run-a-campaign" strategies. After all, how many candidates have EVER blown a lead as big as the one he had??"
That analysis has gotta go into the political history books. Man, Rooty got piped but good.
Giuliani worships at the Church of Whatever Works For Me. He has no moral center, he has no spiritual fidelity, and is completely without political loyalty. Says he's "conservative" but sucked up to liberals, sought Liberal backing, and employed numerous Liberals as Mayor/candidate.
He worships abortion, gay rights, and gun grabbing----all completly against Republican principles. His most fervent wish is to religiously cleanse the party and dump so/cals off the party lifeboat.
Rudy can get on his knees and hail Beelzebub dawn til dusk-----that ain't gonna happen.
Good. Get the pro-abort lib out of there.
Good! I would love to see him finish worse than 3rd in FL. Unfortunately, it looks like McCain is the one profiting from Rudy’s demise. I refuse to vote for either one of them, and I don’t care who the Democrat is come fall.
It’s gonna come down to a choice between Romney and McCain for the Repub nomination, and I just don’t see McCain beating Romney when all is said and done.
And I don’t see Hillary or Obama beating Romney either, once the general election campaign starts in earnest.
I see it the exact opposite. If Rudy does not win Florida, that pretty much ends his campaign, reverting that all to McCain. McCain, in that case will win NY, NJ, and maybe California. Those are all super delegate states that will propel him to the front. He will be the defacto front runner. McCain and Rudy share many of the same voters, they can not both be viable, and I think vs Mitt, McCain has a much stronger advantage than Rudy does.
If Rudy does not win, I think it is over for everyone but McCain.
I disagree. Romney's poll numbers against Hillary or Obama are poor. He and Rudy now have the highest unfavorables among GOP candidates.
There is a lot of wishful thinking around here. A lot of talk that early poll numbers don't matter. It's not that early, folks. He's been around for a year already! Only 20% of voters have no opinion of him. As people have gotten to know him, some GOP voters have liked him better, but in the electorate as a whole, he has played more unfavorably than favorably.
Romney looks unelectable to me.
I agree, it’s hard to see Rudy voters going to Romney, but OTOH, I am not sure Rudy will drop out if he loses FL (which I expect him to do). He’s stubborn, so he might hang in through Super Tuesday.
Draft Dick Cheney!
I haven’t lived in FL in6 yrs. Can any freepers down there tell me how Brevard county is leaning?
I disagree. The polls right now are meaningless. In a campaign between a decent man, and a evil tyrant Romney stands a chance of winning. And if he runs on conservative principles and articultates them forcefully, he wins in a landslide. Because the truth is on our side. Failure and a historyt of incompetence is on the side of the clinton’s.
Rudy and Huck are almost done. Wish Fred would have stayed in.
Rudy and Huck are almost done. Wish Fred would have stayed in.
The polls are not meaningless. For one thing, they allow us to see trends. Those who refuse to see the problems with a Mitt candidacy simply will not face the facts: the trend line shows that over the course of a full year, as the public has been more and more exposed to him, his unfavorables have risen. As have the number of people who say they absolutely will not vote for him.
One has to have a compelling argument that this phenomenon will suddenly reverse itself. I have yet to hear it. If he changes what he has been saying for the past year, he is going to be even more vulnerable on the charges of flipflopping and inauthenticity.
A lot of people don’t like him. It’s a shame so many FReepers cannot acknowledge reality.
Fred might be considered for VP or maybe the Cabinet.
Love conquers all!
The handle has been pushed and the turd is circling the bowl.
Heheh-—good one-—nice visual.
I also think that the polls may be off based on the early voting (up to 40% may have already voted), so exit polls, and such will be very far off.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.