Fewer Atlantic hurricanes to hit U.S., scientists say

South Florida Sun-Sentinel ^ | January 22, 2008 | Ken Kaye

[neverdem]

Following in the footsteps of an earlier study, government scientists on Tuesday said warmer oceans should translate to fewer Atlantic hurricanes striking the United States. The reason: As sea surface temperatures warm globally, sustained vertical wind shear increases. Wind shear makes it difficult for storms to form and grow.

"Using data extending back to the middle nineteenth century, we found a gentle decrease in the trend of U.S. landfalling hurricanes when the global ocean is warmed up," Chunzai Wang, a physical oceanographer and climate scientist with NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami said in a prepared statement.

Sang-Ki Lee of the Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies at the University of Miami worked with Wang on the study. Their findings are to be published on Wednesday in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

The study found that the warming of the Pacific and Indian oceans plays an important role in determining hurricane activity in the Atlantic.

A study released in December found that as the Atlantic basin becomes hotter, hurricane intensity likely won't increase and might even deflate somewhat. That study found that ocean's heat acts to stabilize the upper atmosphere, which, in turn, hurts a storm's ability to build.

It was conducted by Gabriel Vecchi, a NOAA research oceanographer and Brian Soden, an associate professor of oceanography at the University of Miami.

Several other studies have asserted that global warming is steadily increasing the intensity, duration and number of tropical systems. For instance, Kerry Emanuel, a professor of atmospheric science at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, found the combined power of Atlantic hurricanes has more than doubled since 1970.

Regarding the most recent study, Wang said vertical wind shear is not the only factor that determines Atlantic hurricane activity, but noted it is an important one. Other factors...

[Cyber Liberty]

Considering the accuracy of the forcasters of late, I’d say the Atlantic seaboard is in big trouble.

[JimSEA]

Based on the past track record of hurricane predictions, I would start buying plywood sheets, electric generators and make plans to head for high ground.

[Bob]

which should mean less storms hit land, no?

Possibly, but a sub-tropical storm (which is now a named storm) can still hit land and add to the 'hurricane' totals. I'm not sure how the change might affect that count.

[3catsanadog]

I seem to recall after Hurricane Katrina that they announced from the rooftops that the next summer would see even more deadlier and destructive hurricanes in the U.S.

And, of course, there were little hints with that news that it could be because of global warming.

[NewHampshireDuo]

Old theory: Global warming increases hurricanes
New theory: Global warming decreases hurricanes

Scenario 1: More hurricanes
Conclusion: Old theory correct

Scenario 2: Fewer hurricanes
Conclusion: New theory correct

Common theme: Global warming is bad and must be stopped

[Proverbs 3-5]

I thought Al Gorebal-warming told us that warming oceans increased hurricanes. Guess I am mistaken...

[steelyourfaith]

"Hot Air Cult"

~~Anthropogenic Global Warming ™ ping~~

[andy58-in-nh]

[Elpasser]

But wait...
Al Gore told us 3 years ago that the debate was over, and the science was settled about the cause and effects of Global Warming. And researchers had confidently concluded that Global Warming would produce MORE hurricane activity.

[Reeses]

When it’s the reverse they make up a number, say $100 billion more in annual damage costs just to the USA. So this GW change saves billions, not to mention the savings in lives.

How is all the energy that used to drive hurricanes dissipated? I bet higher evaporation and rainfall. In net all very good.

[Iron Munro]

Fewer Atlantic hurricanes to hit U.S., scientists say

When the "experts" predict fewer hurricanes the odds are there will be more.

Predictions been so far off the last two years that a blind monkey rolling dice could have made a more accurate guess.

If "experts" say the odds are down that means we will be restocking emergency gear and keeping the Bail-Out bags by the door

[Tolerance Sucks Rocks]

Are you sure you want to put a stop to this?

[tpanther]

W’s fault.

[cogitator]

Are you sure you want to put a stop to this?

[Tolerance Sucks Rocks]

DRAT! I STILL won't have beachfront property!

In all seriousness, though, what is the time frame for that picture? (And no, I'm not thinking "Maybe I'll be dead by then, so this is not my problem.")

[Reeses]

Couldn't man-made clouds at the narrow latitude where it's 32 degrees F drop the temperature slightly and prevent any melting of ice? Clouds can exist in very cold conditions. This may not cost much to do.

Our cities and power plants already make man-made clouds, as evidenced by the substantially increased rainfall downwind of these heat islands. All these doomsday predictions assume there is no technology we can use to do anything.

[Mike Darancette]

During the 1996-2005 decade the yearly average of USA Hurricane damage (in 2005 dollars) was $19.859 Billion. GW can save us a lot of money!

The last two years there were predictions of record numbers of hurricanes hitting the USA because of global warming. What happened? Nothing. Now they are reversing their predictions and saying they were wrong. I think the GW priesthood doesn’t know what they don’t know.

Al Gore’s books and movie was wrong will he give his Nobel Prize back.

[ryan71]

So what.

We could go 50 years without a hurricane and our insurance rates won’t drop a penny.

[cogitator]

In all seriousness, though, what is the time frame for that picture?

No time frame is given. Most sea level rise scenarios in excess of 50 cm depend on ice sheet behavior and the rate of warming in the next several decades.