Posted on 01/23/2008 10:00:23 AM PST by neverdem
Following in the footsteps of an earlier study, government scientists on Tuesday said warmer oceans should translate to fewer Atlantic hurricanes striking the United States. The reason: As sea surface temperatures warm globally, sustained vertical wind shear increases. Wind shear makes it difficult for storms to form and grow.
"Using data extending back to the middle nineteenth century, we found a gentle decrease in the trend of U.S. landfalling hurricanes when the global ocean is warmed up," Chunzai Wang, a physical oceanographer and climate scientist with NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami said in a prepared statement.
Sang-Ki Lee of the Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies at the University of Miami worked with Wang on the study. Their findings are to be published on Wednesday in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.
The study found that the warming of the Pacific and Indian oceans plays an important role in determining hurricane activity in the Atlantic.
A study released in December found that as the Atlantic basin becomes hotter, hurricane intensity likely won't increase and might even deflate somewhat. That study found that ocean's heat acts to stabilize the upper atmosphere, which, in turn, hurts a storm's ability to build.
It was conducted by Gabriel Vecchi, a NOAA research oceanographer and Brian Soden, an associate professor of oceanography at the University of Miami.
Several other studies have asserted that global warming is steadily increasing the intensity, duration and number of tropical systems. For instance, Kerry Emanuel, a professor of atmospheric science at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, found the combined power of Atlantic hurricanes has more than doubled since 1970.
Regarding the most recent study, Wang said vertical wind shear is not the only factor that determines Atlantic hurricane activity, but noted it is an important one. Other factors...
(Excerpt) Read more at sun-sentinel.com ...
AGW/CC predictions contradicted again
WHAT?????
You mean we are not DOOMED(((doomed)))??
But, but, Al said we were DOOMED!!!! What about all those people that gave him money??? Are they (((DOOMED))) now? We must have (((DOOM)))!!! What will we DO!?!?! With out ((DOOM))) we are DOOMED!!!!!(((DOOMED.... doomed)))
LOOKOUT!!! Expect a major CAT 3 or CAT 4 to hit the East Coast this season.
“Following in the footsteps of an earlier study, government scientists on Tuesday said warmer oceans should translate to fewer Atlantic hurricanes striking the United States. The reason: As sea surface temperatures warm globally, sustained vertical wind shear increases. Wind shear makes it difficult for storms to form and grow.”
A major AlBore talking point taken down. That’s gotta hurt.
The reason Atlanta faced this long drought is that they've had two years without the "perfect storms" the weather guys promised us.
The hurricanes move up north, bump the Blue Ridge and let down the rain.
But the Atlantic Ocean has BEEN TOO COLD for hurricanes.
I’ll be waiting for the insurance companies to lower their rates.
Does this mean that for those of us who live on the Gulf Coast we should be thankful for Global Warming?
With their track record in enumerating the projected hurricanes continues as it has for the past two years, we must be in for some bad ones this year.
So much for Al’s Katrina theory. Does that sink his entire movie? Certainly the cover.
So that's a good thing, right? Al Bore must hate Florida.
Considering how accurate their predictions have been over the last few years I guess I better go get some batteries and Tang.
I am worried now, putz heads.
My thoughts exactly.
No, the changes that were made (IIRC, a few years ago), lowered the threshhold so that there were more named storms rather than fewer.
It’s clear they have no idea
Hurricane predicting is a very rewarding endeavor. I have noticed over the years that the “predictions” are always adjusted as the season goes along to the number of actual hurricanes. In the end the “prediction” equals the actual number of hurricanes.
which should mean less storms hit land, no?
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