In twist, GOP candidates eye California's Democratic districts

Ethnically diverse, cutting a swath from Hollywood through the city's historic black heartland, it's so thick with Democrats that John Kerry won 83 percent of the vote during the 2004 presidential election. Republicans didn't even bother to field a candidate in the last U.S. House race.

In a twist on political logic, heavily Democratic patches in California are being fiercely contested by some Republican presidential candidates because of a change in state election rules.

For the first time in a contested race, the California GOP will distribute delegates based on the winner in each of the state's congressional districts, rather than to the candidate who piles up the most votes statewide.

The move has upended conventional campaign strategy, turning the Feb. 5 Republican primary into a chessboard of 53 separate contests, each with a prize of three delegates. To win the GOP presidential nomination, a candidate must secure 1,191 delegates in elections across the country.

Because only registered Republicans can vote in California's GOP presidential primary, there's temptation to pursue Democratic-leaning districts. A Republican candidate has to sway a relatively small number of voters to win.

A Democratic stronghold such as the 33rd District has about 30,000 registered Republicans. That's a fraction of the number in bedrock GOP territory such as the largely rural 22nd District in Kern, San Luis Obispo and Los Angeles counties, which has 165,000 Republicans.

In a crowded field with moderate turnout, a candidate could win the 33rd and claim its delegates with a few thousand votes, a number smaller than would be needed to win many city council races.

"It's a little like jujitsu. With the right application of a little amount of force, you could prevail," said Republican National Committee treasurer Tim Morgan.

"It changes the whole formula," said Republican pollster Steve Kinney, who is backing Arizona Sen. John McCain. "You can end up with far less votes overall and have most of the delegates."

Simple economics are at work, too. In a race where dollars are tight - there are more than 20 presidential contests on Feb. 5 - it costs a GOP campaign less to contact voters in a Democratic district, where Republican registration is slim.

Another likely target: the San Francisco district of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., where fewer than one in 10 voters is registered as a Republican.

Giuliani, the former mayor of heavily Democratic New York City, could have an advantage in urban areas, given his left-leaning record on abortion, gay rights and gun control. California's coastal counties tend to be more liberal, while inland counties are more conservative.

"There are districts where the mayor would naturally run strongly that are heavily Democratic," said Giuliani's state chairman, Bill Simon.

The interest in Democratic districts is an unintended consequence of a rule change that was designed to lure more candidates to each region of the state, as well as build up political organizations in each congressional district that could benefit the party overall.

But with the priority on Iowa, New Hampshire and other early presidential contests, the state has seen little campaigning by candidates. No Republican has run a TV ad in California's costly media markets. Some, short on money, are likely to rely solely on volunteers to generate turnout on Feb. 5.

McCain, for example, has begun to organize a California campaign but with an all-volunteer effort.

So far, only Giuliani and Romney have had the money to support significant grass-roots activity in California, such as running phone banks to contact voters.

The GOP race in California mirrors the national contest - it's wide open. But Morgan, of the Republican National Committee, and other party members already are debating whether the district-by-district division of delegates makes sense.

Meanwhile, the party is struggling to reverse a slide in registration that comes as an unwelcome sign in a presidential election year. Both major parties have been losing membership in California, while the fastest growing segment of the electorate has no party affiliation at all.

Independents account for nearly 20 percent of California's 15.5 million registered voters.

The last time a GOP candidate carried California in a presidential election was 1988, when George H.W. Bush was elected. There were 5.4 million Republican voters at the time, about 39 percent of the California electorate.

Republicans now make up about 33 percent of California voters, compared to 43 percent for Democrats. Between February and December last year, the GOP lost more than 170,000 registered voters in the state. The Democratic decline in that period was about 69,000 voters.

All Congressional Districts carry the same weight, no matter the number of voters?
Welcome to the Purple Party, where liberals are favored and conservatives are marginalized at every turn.
Brought to you courtesy of ex-Chairman Duf Sundheim.

California - Voter Registration as of December 7, 2007

CD    Total Reg     Dem         Rep     All other            Dem      Rep   All other
1     342,750     154,901      97,220      90,629          45.2%     28.4%     26.4%
2     343,531     113,614     151,851      78,066          33.1%     44.2%     22.7%
3     365,836     133,016     153,398      79,422          36.4%     41.9%     21.7%
4     408,408     123,772     193,658      90,978          30.3%     47.4%     22.3%
5     268,030     136,261      64,567      67,202          50.8%     24.1%     25.1%
6     334,856     172,597      78,087      84,172          51.5%     23.3%     25.1%
7     260,653     143,102      57,121      60,430          54.9%     21.9%     23.2%
8     331,071     182,528      32,354     116,189          55.1%      9.8%     35.1%
9     320,853     199,707      30,182      90,964          62.2%      9.4%     28.4%
10    329,542     148,739     104,531      76,272          45.1%     31.7%     23.1%
11    335,904     126,237     141,605      68,062          37.6%     42.2%     20.3%
12    328,375     166,587      66,790      94,998          50.7%     20.3%     28.9%
13    266,256     139,056      50,605      76,595          52.2%     19.0%     28.8%
14    307,251     140,997      82,531      83,723          45.9%     26.9%     27.2%
15    260,648     113,525      70,208      76,915          43.6%     26.9%     29.5%
16    231,641     110,382      57,811      63,448          47.7%     25.0%     27.4%
17    255,600     130,032      65,825      59,743          50.9%     25.8%     23.4%
18    240,964     113,894      86,237      40,833          47.3%     35.8%     16.9%
19    324,218     116,734     148,418      59,066          36.0%     45.8%     18.2%
20    185,939      93,488      63,672      28,779          50.3%     34.2%     15.5%
21    274,180      92,416     133,474      48,290          33.7%     48.7%     17.6%
22    325,926      98,280     165,205      62,441          30.2%     50.7%     19.2%
23    282,087     127,082      85,370      69,635          45.1%     30.3%     24.7%
24    346,443     119,151     150,186      77,106          34.4%     43.4%     22.3%
25    316,079     110,980     134,000      71,099          35.1%     42.4%     22.5%
26    338,133     113,827     147,311      76,995          33.7%     43.6%     22.8%
27    276,000     130,318      78,287      67,395          47.2%     28.4%     24.4%
28    224,711     124,107      43,808      56,796          55.2%     19.5%     25.3%
29    287,102     124,450      84,976      77,676          43.3%     29.6%     27.1%
30    387,249     193,414      94,921      98,914          49.9%     24.5%     25.5%
31    171,484      98,805      26,706      45,973          57.6%     15.6%     26.8%
32    220,603     111,287      54,793      54,523          50.4%     24.8%     24.7%
33    273,705     175,786      32,423      65,496          64.2%     11.8%     23.9%
34    178,153     102,597      34,421      41,135          57.6%     19.3%     23.1%
35    234,744     151,902      34,299      48,543          64.7%     14.6%     20.7%
36    313,495     137,252      95,592      80,651          43.8%     30.5%     25.7%
37    251,673     146,340      47,096      58,237          58.1%     18.7%     23.1%
38    226,337     125,750      50,910      49,677          55.6%     22.5%     21.9%
39    240,028     121,087      67,055      51,886          50.4%     27.9%     21.6%
40    327,744     105,538     150,031      72,175          32.2%     45.8%     22.0%
41    321,565     104,228     150,128      67,209          32.4%     46.7%     20.9%
42    348,915     100,872     171,263      76,780          28.9%     49.1%     22.0%
43    209,379      98,906      68,631      41,842          47.2%     32.8%     20.0%
44    303,430      97,222     139,439      66,769          32.0%     46.0%     22.0%
45    304,995     109,560     136,232      59,203          35.9%     44.7%     19.4%
46    391,146     119,719     180,081      91,346          30.6%     46.0%     23.4%
47    202,146     85,964      72,803       43,379          42.5%     36.0%     21.5%
48    412,235     112,862     199,511      99,862          27.4%     48.4%     24.2%
49    275,741     79,515      129,745      66,481          28.8%     47.1%     24.1%
50    341,648     102,133     147,403      92,112          29.9%     43.1%     27.0%
51    249,375     117,777      71,718      59,880          47.2%     28.8%     24.0%
52    315,512     95,113      142,947      77,452          30.1%     45.3%     24.5%
53    254,262     105,364      72,743      76,155          41.4%     28.6%     30.0%

   15,468,551   6,598,773   5,190,179   3,679,599          42.7%     33.6%     23.8%

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