There are 2 things in play here as far as I see it. I too doubt that McCain can win the nomination both from the point of view of the feeling and actions of the conservatives. The second and personally IMHO as important some Republicans who may support him may decide not to vote for him because they feel he would not be electable at the general election. I cannot see how someone of 71 nearly 72 would be electable. I feel this is one of the reasons that independents are voting for him not because they support but in the hope he maybe the Republican nomination knowing that there are so many negatives against him he could not possibly be elected President.
All Rush has to do is replay and relive all the times McCain has screwed Conservatives and the Republican Party and he will be toast.