Posted on 01/19/2008 12:27:01 PM PST by NormsRevenge
As Democrats campaign for president in California this year, a wild card is what the state's fastest growing group of voters - the independents - will do.
Unlike early voting states where independents could participate in either party's contest, in California the Republican Party has barred them from its primary.
This could be a boon to Barack Obama in his uphill struggle against Hillary Rodham Clinton in California. The rules eliminate the competition he otherwise would face from John McCain, a Republican who also does well with independents.
"There's some evidence they can go to Sen. Obama," said Bill Carrick, a Democratic consultant who is not affiliated with any candidate. "They'll go to their second choice, because they can't go to their first."
But nonpartisan voters in California lean strongly Democratic, and the Clinton campaign thinks that gives them the edge. Clinton has a large lead among base Democratic voters, and her strategists say they believe it extends to nonpartisans, as well.
"Independent voters in California are just absolutely different than independent voters in the rest of the country," said Ace Smith, who is running Clinton's California operation. "All the independents in this state, they've overwhelmingly voted for Bill Clinton twice."
California's 3 million independent voters are growing at the expense of both major parties and account for nearly one in five of the state's registered voters.
But relatively few are expected to cast ballots in the primary election. Their antipathy toward political parties makes them shy away from nominating contests.
Even with the most hotly contested presidential primary in 40 years, analysts and Democratic Party officials predict independents will make up just 10 to 15 percent of the Democratic primary vote.
That is a smaller percentage than voted in Iowa, and far smaller than New Hampshire, where about 45 percent of registered voters are independent. But it would be more than usually take part and could be enough to swing a close race.
The logistics also are slightly more difficult for independents. To vote in the Democratic contest, they must take the extra step of requesting a Democratic Party ballot, which may be especially confusing to those who vote by mail.
The campaigns are tracking these voters and following up with phone calls in support of their candidate. But analysts say independents are among the most difficult voters to mobilize.
"There are a lot of ifs; there are a lot of conditions," said Mark DiCamillo, who directs the nonpartisan Field Poll. "It's not simple."
Most California independents describe themselves as moderate, and analysts say they tend to be turned off by harsh campaign rhetoric. They also are younger and less white than the voters of either major party. About 45 percent of independents are under 40.
Crystal Davis, a 25-year-old government worker in Sacramento, said she is an independent, "because my views vary. There's things about each party that I support."
She plans to vote in the Democratic primary but is torn between Clinton and Obama. She said she will choose based on whoever seems to have the most sincerity and conviction.
"It's all about charisma and what they're doing to support their causes," she said.
Obama's campaign says California independents will respond to his pledge to bring civility and bipartisanship back to the nation's capital, just as independents have in other states.
"We think if Iowa and New Hampshire are any indication, they'll come our way," said Mitchell Schwartz, Obama's California campaign director.
Mark Baldassare, president of the Public Policy Institute of California, said Obama's message does have a natural appeal to California independents - but it will only work if they don't see him as a liberal.
"It's a question of which candidate is going to come off as moderate and pragmatic and less drawn to partisanship," he said.
Some see parallels between Obama's campaign and the one that Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger ran in 2006, when he won an overwhelming re-election victory with the help of independent voters. Schwarzenegger presented himself as a freethinking problem solver who was willing to adopt solutions from either side.
Obama is doing something similar, albeit with the twist that he can achieve bipartisan solutions by ending partisan rancor.
"He's appealing to a lot of those voters, because he has a message that's been brewing in the country," said Matthew Dowd, a political analyst for ABC News who advised Schwarzenegger in the 2006 race. "How do we heal the rifts?"
But the front-loaded primary calendar does not give Obama much time to make his pitch, and Clinton, who leads by a wide margin in polls, comes to the state with almost a home-court advantage.
Analysts talk about the "Clinton franchise" in California, noting that Bill Clinton visited the state more than 70 times when he was president.
"He really cultivated California like it was a vineyard," said Garry South, a Democratic consultant. "California is still very taken with the Clinton brand."
Wow, I am just speechless.
One should never underestimate the shallowness of the modern American voter and the media and educational systems that have made them such deep thinkers.
Independents lack the courage of their convictions.
We’ll see something before February, that we won’t see before November. A republican candidate in the state, talking about their platform.
Before November they’ll attend some dinners and walk off with a chunk of change to spend in other states. They won’t be spending it here.
If Fred is the nominee, he just may.
This is how it ought to be in EVERY state. This would keep liberal pukes like McLame from ever having a chance of stealing the Repub nomination, regardless of supposed party principles.
Quidado! Be careful what you wish for.
I’m voting for Obama because he cares about me and has pretty eyes.
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