Posted on 01/16/2008 7:38:34 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
WASHINGTON -- The Republican presidential race is so unsettled that some party officials are openly talking of a scenario that seemed almost unthinkable until now: the first contested GOP convention in 60 years.
Even if Republicans choose a nominee before they convene in Minneapolis-St. Paul on Sept. 1, there's a good possibility he will emerge weeks or even months after the Democratic nominee is chosen, giving Democrats an advantage in fundraising, organizing and campaigning. Congressional Republicans particularly wanted an early nominee to draw voters' attention from President Bush, whose low approval ratings could hurt the entire party in the fall.
Bush's former top political aide, Karl Rove, told Republican officials Wednesday that major challenges await "the moment our candidate secures the nomination." As if they needed reminding, Rove told those at the Republican National Committee's winter meeting, "the primaries are far from over."
Democrats also face the possibility of a long and costly battle involving Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois and former Sen. John Edwards. But officials attending the RNC meeting said Democrats seem likely to make their choice before a clear winner emerges from the pack of four or five still-credible GOP contenders.
"The way it looks now, it could end up in the convention," Ron Schmidt, South Dakota's Republican National Committeeman, said of the party's nominating process. "It's fascinating if you're a political junkie."
In the major contests so far-- Iowa, New Hampshire and Michigan -- three different Republicans have finished first. If former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson scores the win he hopes for in South Carolina on Saturday, he would be the fourth first-place finisher. Likewise, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani could be the fifth winner in the five contests if he proves wise in picking Florida's Jan. 29 primary as his first big stand.
Politicians had long assumed the Feb. 5 "Super Tuesday" primary, involving California, New York and 22 other states, would resolve any doubts about either party's nominee. Democrats feel slightly less certain about that now, and Republicans are even more doubtful.
The GOP process could go "right up to the point that we don't have a clear candidate with enough electoral votes to win" the nomination when the conventions start, said Herbert Schoenbohm, Republican Party chairman for the Virgin Islands. That would be fine with Schoenbohm, who said he is "tired of the coronations and staged events" of recent conventions.
But a deadlocked convention could be a nightmare for the party. The Republicans' last multi-ballot convention was in 1948, when New York Gov. Thomas Dewey prevailed on the third ballot. He lost the general election to Democrat Harry S. Truman.
The last contested Democratic convention was in 1952, when Illinois Gov. Adlai Stevenson won on the third ballot. He later lost two elections to Republican Dwight D. Eisenhower.
Contested conventions have never been kind to their eventual nominees, said G. Terry Madonna, who has studied them as a public affairs professor and pollster at Franklin and Marshall College in Pennsylvania. A deadlocked convention in either party remains unlikely, he said in an interview Wednesday, but it is more possible for Republicans.
Both parties' nominating rules have changed so dramatically since the 1950s, Madonna said, that guidelines for resolving such an impasse are far from clear. "This is something we've never had," he said.
Most convention delegates now are loyal to a given candidate, not to the party itself, he said. The Byzantine rules governing delegates' powers and obligations are nearly incomprehensible, he said. But in the end, it might not matter much.
A deadlocked nominating process would be obvious when most primaries end by early May, Madonna said, four months before the party conventions take place. Then "there will be wheeling and dealing" among the candidates and their surrogates, he said, with possible deals including a vice presidential spot for a contender willing to step aside and resolve the question.
On Wednesday, several Republican officials said a protracted primary season might add excitement to a party that typically settles on a nominee early.
That's not the tune they were humming last summer, however, when they began worrying about potential losses at the congressional and state levels. When a likely GOP nominee emerges by early February or so, Republicans will "not have the Bush monkey on our back," Rep. Tom Feeney, R-Fla., said at the time.
Rove told party officials Wednesday that the eventual GOP presidential nominee has "four big things to do" when the intraparty battle ends. The first, he said, is to "introduce themself to the American people," who pay far less attention to campaigns than most political aficionados realize.
It was a splash of cold-water reality for party activists who don't know who their standard-bearer will be, nor when he will be chosen.
Personally I hope this doesn’t happen. The Republican Party hasn’t been doing well as far as attracting conservative candidates, I can only imagine what they would come up with if the decision were to be made at the convention. Possibly this is what Boren and Bloomberg have in mind. Not a pleasant thought.
C'mon... you know why. Hillary's capital is all on paper and the spin of her shills in the DBM. Obama has the real heart of the leftist movement behind him... HARD CURRENCY.
I’m still waiting for my Flying Car that scientists said we’d have by now, back in the 1960’s.
When I get it, I’ll be off to mine the other planets for chocolate! :)
This can't happen because of bound delegates. A pretty significant number of states have laws that require delegates to vote for the particular candidate that received those delegates during the state's primary. Because these delegates are bound, it would be nearly impossible for someone who did not have any delegates entering the convention to be able to round up the 1,200 or so delegates that he needs to be the nomination.
This isn't like the 1800s. Stuff like that isn't going to happen. Even if it's a brokered convention, bound delegates almost ensure that the winner will be one of the top three delegate leaders going into the convention.
That won't ever happen. There are close to 500 delegates that are forever bound.
No thank you.
This is crunch time, folks.
Yeah, sure there are a few that are bound for the entire convention, but a deal can still be hammered out short a few delegates. There will be nearly 2,000 free delegates to work with after a few ballots, and only 1,191 are needed to cinch the nomination.
I think the maximum number of free delegates possible is around 1800, and that’s only after three ballots. But not all states release their delegates at the same time, so some delegates are released after one vote, some after two, some after three, and some—close to 500—never.
So because a significant number of delegates are still going to be committed after the first two ballots, it makes the possibility of a “no-name” very unlikely because the number of committed votes plus the number of newly freed votes after the first two ballots will likely push someone up over 1200.
I agree that a brokered convention will be neat, but I think the idea of a darkhorse winning the thing is super, super unlikley. The set-up just doesn’t favor it. One of the top three going in will win it.
As an aside, what will be especially interesting is the candidate that controls the most unbound delegates. He’ll hold all the cards.
There are 2,380 delegates total.
If there are nearly 500 delegates bound for the duration of the convention, then that still leaves around 1,900 delegates who will be unbound by the 4th ballot.
I agree a dark horse is unlikely, but even more unlikely is a candidate that is anathema to the GOP or its platform, such as John McCain or Rudy Giuliani, regardless of how many delegates they go in with. I am still quite convinced that a brokered convention so favors Fred Thompson that anything else is improbable nearly to the point of impossible. All the other candidates have too much core opposition from some important constituency, not to mention donors.
The convention delegates are only bound for the first and second ballots. After that, they can vote for whomever they please.
If I eat at the same restaurant twice and it sucks both times, I usually don't go back a third time.
That depends on the state, which sets its own rules for binding delegates. As I've pointed out earlier, around 500 delegates are bound for the convention. Others are bound for as many as three votes. Because of the structure in which the states release the delegates, it is very unlikely that the convention will run longer than three votes. That favors the established candidates.
Jeb is the one that won't drill in the gulf for oil, while Castro is slant drilling into our reserves, Yep pretty smart, alright
You mean Jeb can’t walk on water? Oh, I am sorry about that.
He is a heck of lot stronger than any of the people running now .. a lot more integrity as well.
Actually, each individual state should have the ability to allow or restrict off-shore drilling. It’s a state’s rights issue. Alaska has always wanted to expand its oil drilling, so that would apply to ANWR.
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