Posted on 01/16/2008 7:38:34 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
WASHINGTON -- The Republican presidential race is so unsettled that some party officials are openly talking of a scenario that seemed almost unthinkable until now: the first contested GOP convention in 60 years.
Even if Republicans choose a nominee before they convene in Minneapolis-St. Paul on Sept. 1, there's a good possibility he will emerge weeks or even months after the Democratic nominee is chosen, giving Democrats an advantage in fundraising, organizing and campaigning. Congressional Republicans particularly wanted an early nominee to draw voters' attention from President Bush, whose low approval ratings could hurt the entire party in the fall.
Bush's former top political aide, Karl Rove, told Republican officials Wednesday that major challenges await "the moment our candidate secures the nomination." As if they needed reminding, Rove told those at the Republican National Committee's winter meeting, "the primaries are far from over."
Democrats also face the possibility of a long and costly battle involving Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois and former Sen. John Edwards. But officials attending the RNC meeting said Democrats seem likely to make their choice before a clear winner emerges from the pack of four or five still-credible GOP contenders.
"The way it looks now, it could end up in the convention," Ron Schmidt, South Dakota's Republican National Committeeman, said of the party's nominating process. "It's fascinating if you're a political junkie."
In the major contests so far-- Iowa, New Hampshire and Michigan -- three different Republicans have finished first. If former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson scores the win he hopes for in South Carolina on Saturday, he would be the fourth first-place finisher. Likewise, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani could be the fifth winner in the five contests if he proves wise in picking Florida's Jan. 29 primary as his first big stand.
Politicians had long assumed the Feb. 5 "Super Tuesday" primary, involving California, New York and 22 other states, would resolve any doubts about either party's nominee. Democrats feel slightly less certain about that now, and Republicans are even more doubtful.
The GOP process could go "right up to the point that we don't have a clear candidate with enough electoral votes to win" the nomination when the conventions start, said Herbert Schoenbohm, Republican Party chairman for the Virgin Islands. That would be fine with Schoenbohm, who said he is "tired of the coronations and staged events" of recent conventions.
But a deadlocked convention could be a nightmare for the party. The Republicans' last multi-ballot convention was in 1948, when New York Gov. Thomas Dewey prevailed on the third ballot. He lost the general election to Democrat Harry S. Truman.
The last contested Democratic convention was in 1952, when Illinois Gov. Adlai Stevenson won on the third ballot. He later lost two elections to Republican Dwight D. Eisenhower.
Contested conventions have never been kind to their eventual nominees, said G. Terry Madonna, who has studied them as a public affairs professor and pollster at Franklin and Marshall College in Pennsylvania. A deadlocked convention in either party remains unlikely, he said in an interview Wednesday, but it is more possible for Republicans.
Both parties' nominating rules have changed so dramatically since the 1950s, Madonna said, that guidelines for resolving such an impasse are far from clear. "This is something we've never had," he said.
Most convention delegates now are loyal to a given candidate, not to the party itself, he said. The Byzantine rules governing delegates' powers and obligations are nearly incomprehensible, he said. But in the end, it might not matter much.
A deadlocked nominating process would be obvious when most primaries end by early May, Madonna said, four months before the party conventions take place. Then "there will be wheeling and dealing" among the candidates and their surrogates, he said, with possible deals including a vice presidential spot for a contender willing to step aside and resolve the question.
On Wednesday, several Republican officials said a protracted primary season might add excitement to a party that typically settles on a nominee early.
That's not the tune they were humming last summer, however, when they began worrying about potential losses at the congressional and state levels. When a likely GOP nominee emerges by early February or so, Republicans will "not have the Bush monkey on our back," Rep. Tom Feeney, R-Fla., said at the time.
Rove told party officials Wednesday that the eventual GOP presidential nominee has "four big things to do" when the intraparty battle ends. The first, he said, is to "introduce themself to the American people," who pay far less attention to campaigns than most political aficionados realize.
It was a splash of cold-water reality for party activists who don't know who their standard-bearer will be, nor when he will be chosen.
A book of political history from 2003 called "Dark Horse: The Surprise Election and Political Murder of President James A. Garfield" (Carroll & Graf) might provide the model. Kenneth D. Ackerman tells the fascinating story of how the 1880 Republican National Convention in Chicago deadlocked, with three sets of delegates unwilling to abandon their first choice, and a totally unexpected non-candidate dark horse named James A. Garfield was nominated on the 36th ballot and then elected president.
It’s not going to happen that way.
First scenario is that the nomination goes to whichever alliance can break the 1,191 delegate mark, Thompson-Romney, or McCain-*uckabee.
Failing that, once all the delegates are released from their pledges, the RNC will engineer a win for a hand-picked consensus nominee, which is closer to what you are talking about.
However, that nominee will be someone that the party can unite around, or at least not lose large factions of the coalition. It’s not going to be a 2nd or 3rd tier candidate like Duncan Hunter. It will either be Fred Thompson or someone with a national profile and immense popularity in the GOP.
there simply is no Al Gore of the GOP, and Ronald Reagan wouldn’t be eligible for a third term, even if it wasn’t for the other more immediate factors that disqualify him from being elected president in 2008.
The closest we have is Newt Gingrich or Rush Limbaugh, though both come with his own baggage, and there’s no way Rush would accept the nomination.
So Fred Thompson is as good as anyone. The fact that he’s running and already has strong support from the party base makes things easier.
I don’t disagree with any of that, but what is his stand on the issues?
Isn’t he pro-amnesty and ultra soft on illegal immigration?
Doesn’t he out-McCain even John McCain?
He’s a non-starter for this reason alone.
It’ll only work if the Democratic President messes up big time making the public desire for another Bush to become President in 2012.
What about Iraq?
Jeb is the right candidate. It’s just the wrong time after all. He needs to wait 4 to 8 years first. He’s only what? 52? So he has some time.
J C Watts
Believe I have made the comment many times. The nomination won’t be decided until at or just before the convention and Fred Dalton Thompson will hopefully be well positioned to be “the Man”!
How can this be done. He right now is fourth in SC. I know he will win delegates in Mississippi, Tennessee, and Alabama, but where else?
The dark horse candidate - General Petraeus.
Who is still active duty. He would have to give his retirement request NOW in order to be out by October. If this is to be real somebody better be talking to him NOW and not at the convention (which he won’t be able to be at if he is not retired already).
He does require a forum in which to speak again. He isn’t good at sound bites, but he is far more serious that musing
Fred does not like giving his answers in thirty second or a minute and a half time periods. He is thoughtful and methodical which does not work at all with the American population that has ADD. The one thing I never understood about Fred with his campaign is why he did not take it upon himself to give a 30 minute speech like Romney did. Romney got great kudos for that speech. Yes it was on religion, but I think that Fred could have given a great speech on Federalism and what it means to average Americans. The other thing that Fred does sometimes is that he speaks to intelligently. Yes sounds crazy, but Americans need things explained to them at about a seventh grade level (that is why USA Today is a popular Newspaper with average Americans...easy read) Fred often speaks on a graduate school level. Most Americans are not here at Free Republic. I would say that most of us are on the higher education level and “smarts” level and all of us have a better understanding of politics, something the average American does not.
So if Fred ends up with 200 delegates and McCain ends up with 800. Romney ends up with 800. Guiliani ends up with 500 and Huckster ends up with 700. Fred could still get it? I find that hard to believe.
Is that your projection for the Delegate count?
You think McCain is going to have 800 delegates? You think Fred will only have 200? What about Duncan Hunter’s delegate?
By the way, there aren’t 3,000 delegates.
There are 2,380.
By the way, there aren’t 3,000 delegates.
There are 2,380.
I was only using examples. The point of the post was Do you think a person with the least or close to the least amount of delegates is going to win?
I think whomever can assemble 1,191 delegates or have them assembled on their behalf can win.
The more you have going in, the easier it is, obviously.
But if a candidate is at the top of the field but they’ve maxed out their support potential, and another one has a deceptively low delegate count but is everyone’s clear 2nd choice, then absolutely, I think the candidate with the lower delegate count will win.
Then, in November, it's Democrat Ultra vs. Democrat Lite. Simply pick any two real names to replace Breck Rodham Obama and Rudy McRomnabee.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.