Posted on 01/16/2008 7:38:34 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
WASHINGTON -- The Republican presidential race is so unsettled that some party officials are openly talking of a scenario that seemed almost unthinkable until now: the first contested GOP convention in 60 years.
Even if Republicans choose a nominee before they convene in Minneapolis-St. Paul on Sept. 1, there's a good possibility he will emerge weeks or even months after the Democratic nominee is chosen, giving Democrats an advantage in fundraising, organizing and campaigning. Congressional Republicans particularly wanted an early nominee to draw voters' attention from President Bush, whose low approval ratings could hurt the entire party in the fall.
Bush's former top political aide, Karl Rove, told Republican officials Wednesday that major challenges await "the moment our candidate secures the nomination." As if they needed reminding, Rove told those at the Republican National Committee's winter meeting, "the primaries are far from over."
Democrats also face the possibility of a long and costly battle involving Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois and former Sen. John Edwards. But officials attending the RNC meeting said Democrats seem likely to make their choice before a clear winner emerges from the pack of four or five still-credible GOP contenders.
"The way it looks now, it could end up in the convention," Ron Schmidt, South Dakota's Republican National Committeeman, said of the party's nominating process. "It's fascinating if you're a political junkie."
In the major contests so far-- Iowa, New Hampshire and Michigan -- three different Republicans have finished first. If former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson scores the win he hopes for in South Carolina on Saturday, he would be the fourth first-place finisher. Likewise, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani could be the fifth winner in the five contests if he proves wise in picking Florida's Jan. 29 primary as his first big stand.
Politicians had long assumed the Feb. 5 "Super Tuesday" primary, involving California, New York and 22 other states, would resolve any doubts about either party's nominee. Democrats feel slightly less certain about that now, and Republicans are even more doubtful.
The GOP process could go "right up to the point that we don't have a clear candidate with enough electoral votes to win" the nomination when the conventions start, said Herbert Schoenbohm, Republican Party chairman for the Virgin Islands. That would be fine with Schoenbohm, who said he is "tired of the coronations and staged events" of recent conventions.
But a deadlocked convention could be a nightmare for the party. The Republicans' last multi-ballot convention was in 1948, when New York Gov. Thomas Dewey prevailed on the third ballot. He lost the general election to Democrat Harry S. Truman.
The last contested Democratic convention was in 1952, when Illinois Gov. Adlai Stevenson won on the third ballot. He later lost two elections to Republican Dwight D. Eisenhower.
Contested conventions have never been kind to their eventual nominees, said G. Terry Madonna, who has studied them as a public affairs professor and pollster at Franklin and Marshall College in Pennsylvania. A deadlocked convention in either party remains unlikely, he said in an interview Wednesday, but it is more possible for Republicans.
Both parties' nominating rules have changed so dramatically since the 1950s, Madonna said, that guidelines for resolving such an impasse are far from clear. "This is something we've never had," he said.
Most convention delegates now are loyal to a given candidate, not to the party itself, he said. The Byzantine rules governing delegates' powers and obligations are nearly incomprehensible, he said. But in the end, it might not matter much.
A deadlocked nominating process would be obvious when most primaries end by early May, Madonna said, four months before the party conventions take place. Then "there will be wheeling and dealing" among the candidates and their surrogates, he said, with possible deals including a vice presidential spot for a contender willing to step aside and resolve the question.
On Wednesday, several Republican officials said a protracted primary season might add excitement to a party that typically settles on a nominee early.
That's not the tune they were humming last summer, however, when they began worrying about potential losses at the congressional and state levels. When a likely GOP nominee emerges by early February or so, Republicans will "not have the Bush monkey on our back," Rep. Tom Feeney, R-Fla., said at the time.
Rove told party officials Wednesday that the eventual GOP presidential nominee has "four big things to do" when the intraparty battle ends. The first, he said, is to "introduce themself to the American people," who pay far less attention to campaigns than most political aficionados realize.
It was a splash of cold-water reality for party activists who don't know who their standard-bearer will be, nor when he will be chosen.
No way. Bush fatigue is really, really high even in solid Republican states. Jeb in 2012 maybe if we get a Dem this year. Even then that’s a long shot.
He did great at the ABC news spots.
He does require a forum in which to speak again. He isn’t good at sound bites, but he is far more serious that musing
I see Barbour more as more of a Veep, but he would make a good President as well. He’s 10 times the politician that Fred Thompson is, and is probably more conservative as well.
Exactly. After the Bushes, the ‘toons, the Kennedys, the Gores and the Caseys here in Pa., it’s going to take a lot for me to vote for any member of a “political royal family” (and that includes the Romneys).
It’s getting ‘way too common that politicos’ children are raised to run for office. That’s just not the way we should be doing things here in America.
“Why no speculation about the Democrats? Hillary doesn’t exactly look secure.”
The article DOES speculate about the Democrats. But Democrats have something called superdelegates that are supposed to prevent exactly this kind of thing. Right now, most are pledged to Hillary. She and Obama could go into the convention tied in actual state delegates and she would still win by more than a hundred superdelegate votes.
Haley Barbour,was one of the few to “get things done” recently. I will leave it at that. He ain’t perfect but he made Mary Landrieu and Ray Nagin look like fools
Maybe you were joking but I don’t believe the Bushes or the RNC have the say so should there be a brokered convention. The last one was between Ford and Reagan, and Ford won the nomination, lost the presidency.
I wouldn't bet on that one.
No "Bush" will be elected again in our lifetimes.
Thank heaven for that! (and I voted for BOTH of them)
- John
Amen
Because Rudy is tied for the lead in Florida which is a winner-take-all state. Rudy wins that and he leads the delegate count. That’s why he’s still in the race.
He is also leading in New York, another winner take all state on Super Tuesday. And he’s tied with McCain in California which has a TON of delegates. So either McCain or Rudy could emerge from Super Tuesday leading the delegate race.
The base is so fractured right now it’s anyone’s game.
“I think another Bush candidate would be an election disaster waiting to happen.
The MSM would be relentless.”
And I would be right there with them. I don’t think either Bush provided spectacular conservative leadership while in office. But beyond that, why do some believe that out of all Americans only members of this family are qualified to be in the White House? Counting HW’s time as Vice President, we’ve had a Bush in the Executive Branch for TWENTY of the last TWENTY-EIGHT years!!!!
Draft Gen. Tommy Franks.
Good! because she is the most beatable of the lot.
Ford won on the first ballot, it wasn’t brokered. A brokered convention hasn’t happened since 1940, with Wendell Willkie, who actually was an anti-FDR Democrat who had recently changed parties.
[In the event of a brokered convention, G.W.B. will ask his brother Jeb Bush to be the Republican nominee.
Jeb is a very strong candidate, and would win against the Dems.]
Inaugurating a King would not go over well.
“I think this favors Fred Thompson, because he’s the only candidate that is acceptable to all factions of the GOP. This is important from the RNC’s standpoint, because any other candidate would pose a risk of jeopardizing fundraising.”
This is so obvious you’d think the general public would understand.
1) Rudy weak on 2nd amendment and family
2) Mitt is a flip flopper and yes, has the Mormon problem
3) Huckabee has a mean streak and zero foreign policy ability
4) McCain is insane.
Fred is the only one who doesn’t split the party one way or another. The backroom boys will have to muscle this one somehow.
Per Intrade, chances of a brokered convention is currently 29%.
REP.NOM.2008.BROKERED
The 2008 Republican Pres. Nominee to be selected at a Brokered Convention M Trade 28.0 31.7 29.0 154 +4.0
Read your history. A Deadlocked Convention is a situation where there are not enough delegates obtained during the presidential primary and caucus process for a single candidate to obtain a majority for the presidential nominating convention and none of the front-runners will concede to the others. Since no candidates receive enough votes on the first ballot to win the nomination, the convention is decided by choosing a dark-horse candidate that all can agree on for party harmony. It has happened several times; 1860- Lincoln, 1876 - Hayes, 1880 - Garfield, 1920 - Harding, and 1940 - Wilkie.
Huckabee has worse problems than that.
His populist rhetoric is that of a Democrat, and he would drive Wall Street far, far away.
Romney would inspire Wall Street but drive *uckabee’s Bigot Brigade away.
McCain would dry up donations to Republican candidates and the RNC more than anyone else, because he would drive away the regular donors who are all Republican party loyalists.
Rudy would drive a wedge between national security Republicans and personal security Republicans.
Be careful. They might drop a bridge on you! :)
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