Posted on 01/16/2008 7:24:21 AM PST by jdm
Before the Michigan primaries, many of us wondered whether the lack of a meaningful Democratic primary would create a flood of crossover votes into the Republican contest. Such a turnout could have boosted the performance of John McCain, who remains popular with independents and Democrats in that state and elsewhere. However, despite a campaign by Markos Moulitsas and others, the crossover vote turned out to be insignificant:
McCain captured 41 percent of Democrats who voted in the Republican primary, 10 points more than Romney. Mike Huckabee meanwhile, only captured 14 percent of Democrats.
Though the Democratic primary race was rendered essentially meaningless after party sanctions, few Democrats decided to vote in the Republican primary — according to the exit polling, Democrats only constituted 7 percent of the vote in that contest.
Markos urged his readers to vote for Mitt Romney as a way to confuse the Republican primary race. Instead, Democrats by and large ignored the Republican primary, and to the extent that they participated at all, had no impact on the race. Bad weather may have contributed to the weak crossover vote, but more likely, Michigan Democrats had better things to do with their time than to commit minor polling mischief.
In looking at the exit polling at CNN, the surprise is in how broad Romney's victory was. He won most of the demographics in the exit polling, with McCain only winning a handful. McCain won among those who back a path-to-citizenship policy for immigration, but only by 5 points over Romney. That suggests that immigration was not as big an issue for Michigan Republicans despite a bad economy and job competition. Romney won pluralities among both conservatives and liberals, with McCain winning among moderates. Strangely, McCain won pluralities among those who disapprove and strongly disapprove of the Iraq war. Mitt handily won among those who support it, even though McCain has been one of its strongest advocates.
Ron Paul only won 6% of the overall vote, and did badly among expected demographics. He took 20% of those who strongly disapprove of the Iraq war, a third-place finish despite being the only anti-war candidate, and only 8% among those who somewhat disapprove of it. He took only 13% of the independents and just 7% of the Democrats, who themselves comprised only 7% of the vote.
Perhaps Markos would have done better to promote Ron Paul, as Republicans had mostly made up their minds for Romney long ago. Most, 54%, had made up their minds last month or before that, and only 32% decided in the last three days. Romney won all of those categories except for longer than two months ago, which suggests that the state wasn't as much in flux as some thought, and McCain didn't really get a boost from New Hampshire.
In any case, the crossover gambit flopped. Michigan voters proved their seriousness, even while others encouraged them to play silly games with the franchise.
Wrong on the facts: Markos Moulit (whatever his name is) called for Dems to cross-over and vote for ROMNEY. They want Romney’s millions to continue to be spent on hurting other Republicans. I think they were right tactically. Romney is bad for the party. If he weren’t in it, Thompson would likely gather a plurality of his voters.
It appears to have flopped BIG-TIME!
Which thread do I go to to gloat over McCain’s loss?
‘Markos urged his readers to vote for Mitt Romney as a way to confuse the Republican primary race. Instead, Democrats by and large ignored the Republican primary, and to the extent that they participated at all, had no impact on the race. Bad weather may have contributed to the weak crossover vote, but more likely, Michigan Democrats had better things to do with their time than to commit minor polling mischief.’
The midget at dailykos has a horrible track record on this sort of thing, as Joe Liebermann being a seated Senator despite dailykos demonstrates conclusively.
This is just another in a long line of failures.
Looks like Kos has delusions of relevancy.
I think you can pick any FR and get a good reception gloating over Mccain’s loss.
I think the fact that we had to show an ID and sign for either a republican or democrats ballot scared a lot of them off.
“Wrong on the facts: Markos Moulit (whatever his name is) called for Dems to cross-over and vote for ROMNEY.”
That’s what the article says.
Hey, don’t throw facts at me MR. KNOWITALL. : )
On the subject though, the crossover idea was never likely to work in the shape of a bloc of democrat voters affecting the result.
Mainly due to the chaotic nature of the Republican primary race. If Republicans can’t even work out as a group who they want to vote for, how are Deomcrats supposed to work out who to vote for as a spoiler?!
I agree with that 100%.
there was a 300,000 vote difference between pub and dem votes. if there was no crossover, then should i assume that MI is a guarunteed red state come november?
Yah, I agree that this is a confused race. Supporting the conservative who still can win, Thompson, simplifies it for Republicans. It’s harder for liberal Democrats to choose their spoiler (they have so many). Is it “say anything to get elected and spend millions without gaining much support Romney”? Is it “out of control, sometimes, and undpredictably liberal, sometimes” McCain, or is it “identity politics Huckabee.” So many spoilers . . . so little time . . .
one of the blog dem dudes WAS recommending paul,i saw him myself talk about it on tv.
I still say the big thing is in 2000 it was a republican only primary the dems decided to mess with, this year they had their own dems to vote to make a statement. and that is why the polls were off, factoring in mccain’s dem/independent vote.
“there was a 300,000 vote difference between pub and dem votes. if there was no crossover, then should i assume that MI is a guarunteed red state come november?”
Only if you assume that Democrats are still as likely to turn out in the snow to vote when their choice is Hillary, Kuchinch or nobody. Nobody doesn’t have a great record in getting the vote out...
I agree 100% if you are talking about N.H. I think the libs and lib independents thought Obama was a lock and crossed over in NH to vote for McCain.
Yes, and purging tens of thousands of dead from Detroit voter rolls the last couple years had to help.
So why don't he go run on the democrat ticket.
Now you know the dems had a little problem with the moving of the date for the vote. That is why many did not vote.
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