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Posted on 01/15/2008 9:52:13 AM PST by Reaganesque
I spoke to my Romney guy. They're not making any predictions, but they feel pretty good about tomorrow.
Perhaps the most interesting nugget was the revelation that Team Romney has the potential for a significant margin among those who vote by absentee ballot.
"We were up on TV by ourselves when we worked absentee voters — and those are usually older voters who already have fond memories of Governor [George] Romney. We may have gotten the perfect mix there." He thinks they may have "banked a lot of votes" by absentee.
He paints the polls as putting his man up among Republicans, running about even among independents, but "getting creamed" among Democrats who may cross over and vote in the GOP primary. I offered my argument that Democrats have enough to vote for, and/or may not have a Republican who they unify around, but this Romney guy expects that up to half the crossover Democrats will vote for McCain. He doesn't expect the crossover vote to come from Detroit-area folks wanting to vote for Obama, and being disappointed to find he's not on the ballot; he expects it to come from a more sophisticated, mischief-minded Democrats in places like Ann Arbor.
He also notes the Steve Mitchell tracking poll, which has gone from McCain up 6 to Romney up 2.
He expects that under most scenarios, all of the Michigan delegates will be seated at the convention. "Putting aside the scenario of a brokered convention, everybody gets seated... The nominee will say, 'make this go away, we’ll find another way to punish these guys.' He thinks if the Democratic National Committee refused to seat the state's delegates, it could affect the November general election at the margins - maybe one percent's worth of angry Democrats staying home.
However, he's convinced that the early primary has paid off for the Wolverine State — "it's undisputably true it worked, and it does matter how early in the process you are. How many articles have been written about the Michigan economy in the past month in the national press? Probably more than in the past five years. Having an early primary shines a bright spotlight on your state, the issues you face, and your problems. I mean, we have ethanol subsidies for a reason – it’s Iowa. Michigan barging to the front of the line [of primaries] may pay off for the manufacturing industry. Now, of course, you're going to see Silicon Valley saying, 'hey, wait, what about us? The tech sector deserves attention!'"
He notes that local coverage has been almost horse-race free, and thus stories begin, "Mitt Romney said at the Detroit Economic Club," instead of "Mitt Romney, facing a do-or-die fight for his political future, said at the Detroit Economic Club..."
Snow all over Michigan.. reports of low turnout. Romney should win tonight fairly easily.
I think its worth noting that if McCain gets another 17% of the crossover votes as he did in 2000 in Michigan, or more, he’s demonstrated he can’t win a national election as the GOP nominee.
The question is . . . what is the turnout in Democrat areas. Low turnout everywhere” is not meaningful. Low turnout in Dem areas, high turnout in GOP areas in meaningful.
All Thompson supporters in Michigan need to go out and vote for Romney.
McCain needs to be dealt a defeat today in order to deflate him in South Carolina.
Fred will be the beneficiary if he does.
If absentee votes are going 3 to 1 for Romney then it stands to reason that low voter turnout everywhere still helps Romney.
I think thats probably true as well, we’ll know tonight for sure.
Either way, the simple truth is less than half of any ‘crossovers’ he picks up will be voting for him over a Democrat in the November general election.
I get the feeling McCain would prefer a Democrat if he isn’t the GOP candidate, just as I suspected he thought after the 2000 primaries.
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/1/11/132847/518
Markos is urging dem crossovers to vote Romney.
With the support of the Democrats, he’s sure to win.
The MSM network radio news (carrying Rush here) is shilling for McCain. They are reporting on interviews with both RAT party voters crossing over Mccain as well as reported unethusiatic republicans who are also voting for him. I suspect they would love to suppress the Romney vote with such reports if possible.
Since this will likely be a ping-heavy day or two, I'll be giving the logo a temporary rest.
In NH they had candidates to vote for.
In Michigan they really do not.
In NH all of their votes counted. Now the DNC says that, in Michigan, they do not.
I believe that there will be a pretty low turnout on the dem/independent side compared to the Republican turnout.
I cannot imagine how McCain could have endeared himself to those voters.
Romney being knocked out in MI is the best thing for Fred because Romney’s votes will go to Fred in SC.
McCain will crash on his own after MI.
As long as Mitt and Huck lose in MI its a great day for FRed!
Yes, Fredheads and Romney supporters need to team up. I'd be all for a Romney/Thompson ticket. My second choice would be a Thompson/Romney ticket, but the first is much more likely.
We need to take down the Huckster and McInsane!
I went to the article and man, if tomorrow, the “f-word” mysteriously vanished from the English language, vast swathes of the Liberal establishment’s punditry/bloggers would be utterly incapable of expressing an opinion or even forming a proper sentence.
How are the delegates apportioned here?
Is it an all or nothing state?
Is that a threat?...LOL
The Romney camp has given Thompson peeps no reason whatsoever to want to lift a finger to help him.
Now the JC Watts rumor comes out of the same channel as the last dirty trick with it’s implied pandering for votes message. Oddly enough, pandering for votes is exactly what Mitten Luther has been accused of...
This is exactly like the Bush campaign (Mitt has the same guy) floating out there that McCain had fathered a black child.
Here’s hoping for a quick and fatal demise to the Romney candidacy.
There needs to be one and I can’t do it on stupid dial-up..lol.
Here’s an interesting on-the-scene turnout report by the Detroit Free Press. Words like “nearly deserted” are being used to describe some precincts.
http://freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080115/NEWS15/80115029
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