Interestingly, the Pollster.com survey of pollsters has ARG as the second lowest rated NH poll. Poor Zogby is rated worse than ARG. Ouch.
One of these listed is Gallup, I'm not sure which.
Posted on 01/13/2008 3:50:36 PM PST by Plutarch
I have to wonder if the American Research Group will still have a reputation after this contest is over. Michigan, which I think Romney will win, is going to be the test.
I wonder because ARG has been decidedly pro-McCain for the past year. They have detected levels of strength for McCain that no other poll has. Now, it's been all well and good in New Hampshire, where ARG showed McCain winning by 7% when he won by 5%. But, remember Iowa? ARG showed Fred Thompson had bottomed out at 2%, behind Ron Paul, and McCain had surged. Their December 19th poll showed 28% for Huckabee, 20% for McCain, 17% for Romney, and 5% for Thompson.
Then ARG released a poll on December 28th that showed Huckabee with 23%, Romney with 32%, McCain with 11%, and Thompson with 7%. The day before the Iowa Caucus, ARG showed Huckabee with 29%, Romney with 24%, McCain with 11%, and Thompson with 13%.
In fact, ARG has been doing this frequently -- they release a lot of polls showing increasing strength for John McCain and then produce a poll just before the election that actually did a pretty good job.
Read on . . .
They’ll just change their name to “Argggghhh!”
There’s not a single polling organization that I trust.
It's the old Zogby general election trick: the Donk candidate is way up until a few days before the election, then all of a sudden the Pubbie takes the lead and wins.
The reason McCain will win Michigan is that the Dems will cross over to vote for him. There is no reason to vote in the Dem Primary. The action is on the GOP side, and McCain is the most liberal of the bunch.
The Lib/Socialists are trying to boost the fortunes of the Pubbies they think they can beat. Its as simple as that.
Gallup is still the gold standard.
Interestingly, the Pollster.com survey of pollsters has ARG as the second lowest rated NH poll. Poor Zogby is rated worse than ARG. Ouch.
One of these listed is Gallup, I'm not sure which.
Well, SurveyUSA has not been doing primary polls, but it has been doing head-to-head state polls and McCain does better against Hillary and Obama in their polls than anyone else-—and it really isn’t close. Gonna kick them out too?
All of the poll organizations got it wrong for New Hampshire, and yet that didn’t stop the media from using polls to exclude candidates like Hunter from debate.
On Poll Results and the End of Conservatism
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1951282/posts
ARG isn’t alone in publishing these deceptive, phoney polls. Newsweak has an equally bad record, also loves McCain and uses the same tatics.
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