The Road Ahead (2008 Presidential election)

National Journal ^ | January 11, 2007 | Ronald Brownstein

[Clintonfatigued]

This could go on for a while.

That was the overriding message from the dramatic comeback victories in the New Hampshire primary by Republican John McCain and Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Combined with the outcomes of the Iowa caucuses, the New Hampshire results leave the parties confronting similar situations. Each side faces the prospect of an extended nomination fight between candidates who have established clear demographic strongholds, but have not yet demonstrated enough strength to dislodge their opponents from their strongholds or to unite all the divergent elements of their party's coalition.

"If you look at the results that we have in, you have to say that there is a growing likelihood that this will go on past February 5," said GOP strategist Terry Nelson, the former campaign manager for McCain. "The underlying dynamic is that there is no candidate yet who has unified their party."

The patterns of allegiance for the leading candidates appear much more firmly defined in the Democratic than the Republican race. But on both sides, the leading contenders are drawing from such distinct pools of support that the underlying ideological and demographic characteristics of the next states on the calendar may do more to decide the results than will the evolution of the daily argument between the candidates.

[Friendofgeorge]

Rumor that Ron Brownstein is thinking of changing his name to Ron Brownstain ?

[Clintonfatigued]

We could very well see the different top-tier candidates trading victories in state after state, with none able to reach the level of front-runner status. Each candidate draws from different blocs of support who seem unable to come together in a way that hasn’t happened in many years, making it very difficult for any candidate to consolidate support from all or even most factions of their respective parties. And I’ve seen this reflected on FR postings, as well.

[G8 Diplomat]

[Clintonfatigued]

Your tag line seems to reflect what the article is saying.

[NeoCaveman]

Looks like you might come out of convention with a Pres, a Veep, a Sec. of Treasury, AG, and Sec. of Defense.

And Huck can be Senate Chaplain.

[Clintonfatigued]

I’d prefer that Huckabee run for the U.S. Senate.

[Dr. Sivana]

Clinton dominated with non-college-educated women, consistently her strongest group

I don't doubt it.

[Clintonfatigued]

Very true.