Posted on 01/10/2008 10:33:38 PM PST by neverdem
How do predictions by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change jibe with reality? The solid brown line shows the warming projected by the IPCC, with a range of uncertainty bounded by the dotted brown lines. The other lines show the actual temperatures recorded during the past seven years by different methods on the ground and by satellite. (The lines...)
Last week I asked if there were any good weather omens to look for. I raised a question originally posed by Roger A. Pielke Jr., a professor of environmental studies at the University of Colorado: Are there any indicators in the next 1, 5 or 10 years that would be inconsistent with the consensus view on climate change? Lab readers contributed some ideas (and much invective), but I think the most useful one came from a climate scientist who wrote directly to Dr. Pielke and suggested comparing what has happened since 2000 with the predictions made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Dr. Pielke took up the suggestion and looked at the increase in global average temperature projected by the IPCC from 2000 to 2007. (The IPCC projected various scenarios, depending on the rate of greenhouse emissions; Dr. Pielke chose the scenario that most closely matches the actual emissions since 2000.) The hard part was figuring out what has actually happened the past seven years, because it all depends on who’s doing the measuring, and whether it’s being done on the surface or by satellite. As you can see from the blue line in the graph above, the recent surface measurements by NASA (the blue line) are warmer than those by the United Kingdom Met Office (the green line), and there are different satellite measurements from Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama in Huntsville.
(Excerpt) Read more at tierneylab.blogs.nytimes.com ...
Further, a KNOWN increase in CO2 of over 10% (from 1996 through 2008!) has NOT meant any detectable increase in temperatures!
At stations in the southern hemisphere (with an opposite winter-summer growing period) the same slight CO2 oscillation happens, but in the reversed months.
What has ONLY happened in the 1972-1998 period is a increase in CO2 with an increase in temperatures: at EVERY other period since 1890’s, temperatures have NOT tracked with CO2: temp’s go up, CO2 remains the same; temps go down, CO2 increases; CO2 increases, temps stay the same.
Pick ANY 27 year period since the 1990’s, and the CO2-temperature relationship can be ANYTHING you want it to be.
It’s been very warm here, but it was very cold a few days last week. It’s raining today. It’ll get colder, then it’ll get warmer as spring approaches. Then, when summer comes, it’ll be hot some days, cooler others. And, there will be rainy days.
Hmmm, very suspicious. Definately could be a sign of global warming. We should spend several billion on this.
My stock broker until his retirement used to draw straight lines through his stock charts and talk about moving averages. Maybe he still does, I don’t know. These charts look like stock charts, so the analysis was probably done by a stock broker.
But a flat line? No. That’s NOT the way to fit this kind of data.
A “simple sloped line? Like they tried here?
Again: It ONLY fits their scenario of a constantly (or accelerating!) temp increase. The AGW extremists CAN’T afford (literally!) to allow any other answer to be seen.
Sorry, we don’t do parabolas or other conics here. We were issued only these straightedges. Least squares or forget it.
The increase has not affected Summer temps.
Excellent!
Thanks for the link.
At your service.
Comment# 29 has a graph of CO2 versus time.
Thank you.
I believe that assertion has been shot down!
The original temperature data has been adjusted and re-adjusted and twisted a dozen times by the global warming advocates (who are also the agencies of record for the temperature records.)
The only data which can be trusted is the lower atmosphere temperature figures from the satellites since 1979 shown here.
The assertion that was shot down was that 1998 was the highest US temperature on record. Father Hansen of NASA GISS had declared that 1998 was the hottest ever. It was later shown that he made a mistake in his math, and that 1934 was actually hotter than 1998. Of course, none of us make a mistake in math, 1998-1934 = 80.
Only changed for the United States. Globally 1998 still ranks first, and that won't change. I promise.
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