Posted on 01/10/2008 12:35:30 PM PST by neverdem
THE failure of the New Hampshire pre-election surveys to mirror the outcome of the Democratic race is one of the most significant miscues in modern polling history. All the published polls, including...
--snip--
To my mind all these factors deserve further study. But another possible explanation cannot be ignored — the longstanding pattern of pre-election polls overstating support for black candidates among white voters, particularly white voters who are poor.
In exploring this factor, it is useful to look closely at the nature of the constituencies for the two candidates in New Hampshire, which were divided along socio-economic lines.
Mrs. Clinton beat Mr. Obama by 12 points (47 percent to 35 percent) among those with family incomes below $50,000. By contrast, Mr. Obama beat Mrs. Clinton by five points (40 percent to 35 percent) among those earning more than $50,000.
There was an education gap, too. College graduates voted for Mr. Obama 39 percent to 34 percent; Mrs. Clinton won among those who had never attended college, 43 percent to 35 percent.
Of course these are not the only patterns in Mrs. Clinton’s support in New Hampshire. Women rallied to her (something they did not do in Iowa), while men leaned to Mr. Obama. Mrs. Clinton also got stronger support from older voters, while Mr. Obama pulled in more support among younger voters. But gender and age patterns tend not to be as confounding to pollsters as race, which to my mind was a key reason the polls got New Hampshire so wrong.
Poorer, less well-educated white people refuse surveys more often than affluent, better-educated whites. Polls generally adjust their samples for this tendency. But here’s the problem: these whites who do not respond to surveys tend to have more unfavorable views of blacks than respondents who do the interviews...
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
The sub-heading:
“(in the New Hampshire polls because of poor, less educated, racist rednecks!)”
more correctly would have said:
(in the New Hampshire polls because of poor, less educated, racist Democrat rednecks!)
And for those who have/not do not read the whole story, that subheading is the conclusion of the pollsters as to why they got New Hampshire wrong.
They forgot to mention white voters who are poor and DEMOCRAT.
Hillary gets the POOR UNEDUCATED vote!! How appropos!!
And that’s okay actually, but the Clinton’s should be outed for what was still a very shadey way to steal an election from their opponent. In this instance it could be played off as an attempt to deny a black man his due. I realize that’s race baiting, but you know what, Hillary would have to approve.
Thanks Kenny. Jenny says she thinks they used NH’s lax voting laws. You’re probably both on target.
That does sound like a good point.
No holding breath, but I’m keeping the baited breath in reserve, just in case.
Who can blame anyone. In major corporations we all have “diversity” training stuffed down our throats. You get it in shcool. You get it in the firehouse.
After a few decades of that we all **KNOW** the right answers, and give them when asked.
There is a reason that voting take place with secret ballots.
Just another tough little issue for the Donk’s to deal with this election season.
Even if it isn’t outright fraud, I think that the public deserves to know that many of her voters were from out-of-state and they were paid to be there.
If I was the Obama camp I would certainly want people to know the truth.
Let the people decide if this is dirty pool.
I would suggest that many would think that stuffing the rallies and the ballot boxes qualifies for such.I certainly do.
It’s better to call N.H. racist then to admit that the Clintons cheated, even if it isn’t fraud.
ANDREW KOHUT’s thesis is simple.
White, poor, red necked racists voted for an old line Democrat, Shrilliarly. Being white, poor and rednecked, they refused to discuss their racist traits with the pollers.
So they voted for Shrilliarly rather than the uppity young Black dude daring to ask for change in Washington.
In NH you can register on election day. Hillary had ‘friends’ (some from Arkansas) in the 4th. Ward (most Hispanic Ward in NH who had never voted before) campaigning.
The Arkansas Travelers saturated the Nashua polling places.
******
January 3, 2008
PRESS RELEASE:
Arkansas Travelers Campaign Across NH for Hillary This Week
MANCHESTER, NH – Longtime supporters and friends of the Clinton family will travel from Arkansas to campaign in New Hampshire January 3rd – 8th. They will travel to cities across the state to meet with voters at their homes and in businesses. They will also attend the 100 Club Dinner in Manchester on Friday, January 4th and attend a church service and coffee with members of the South Congregational Church in Concord.
The Arkansans will discuss their personal relationships with Hillary, her bold policy plans, and stress that it is time for New Hampshire voters to pick a president.
The Arkansas travelers come from all walks of life, from ranchers to small business owners to doctors to homemakers to elected officials like state senators and mayors. They share a passion and commitment to electing Hillary Clinton as president.
This is going to get good. They are on the verge of eating their own. The Republicans need to decide NOW if they will exploit this.
Rumor has it, the hellary camp has been holding this ace card all along.
When push comes to shove 'they' will say. "See as sad as it is, America just will not vote in a black man as President of the USA."
Nah! No chance of fraud there. </sarcasm>
I think the NH Democratic party put out the word that it was either Hillary or it would be death to Jeanne Shaheen in November when she needed all that money from the DSCC to beat Sununu. And the ‘establishment’ went to work and took the votes away from Obama and handed them to Hillary.
(and, of course, polls are only of New Hampshire residents and not NYers, Vermonts and Rhode Islanders who actually voted in NH).
And all this just shows that the Democrat Party will never really support blacks. They SAY the support blacks, they run ADS saying they support blacks, they hold PRESS EVENTS saying they support blacks, but when there is an actual black guy on the ballot the democrats wont VOTE for a black guy unless it is in an overwhelmingly black district
I think Hillary took a chance rolling out the union vote scam machine this early. However, she had to stop the Obama train before it got up momentum. Freepers, this is the same union-manned and financed machine that will sweep over our country in the general election. What are you going to do about it? BTW, I prevented at least 100 fraudulent votes (10% of the total in the precinct) in the 2000 election as a Poll Watcher. More recently I have found that you are much more effective as an Election Judge so that’s my new occupation. Who will man the barricades with me?
The turnout is usually low compared to the general election, and election judges tend to be a lot more easy-going. This overall lack of mnonitoring means a dedicated flying squad of 25 vote-scammers can make one hell of a difference. No one is really looking. Best practitioner around is the former friend of the Clintons, Donna Brazile.
She's very angry right now, which leads me to believe that Mrs. Clinton's team, ably led by the arch-fiend Mr. Clinton, probably beat Donna to the punch!
Couldn't just be that (1) people began to see very clearly that B.O. is an empty suit, but (2) people don't want to fess up to a pollster because they don't want someone judging them to be racist rednecks (the way NYTimes has decided to judge the poor whites of NH)?
There could be many reasons. If the stories about Hillary busing in people from out of state that were claiming to be moving to New Hampshire are true, we must ask ourselves, “who are the Hillary groupies?”
Obviously not anyone with a real job.
I was thinking college students, but that would seem to not be true...
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