I understand the miracle preferences, but all those states are not WTA. They are partial delegate awards. It is not those that will win the nomination. it is the BIG states.
NY is WTA. That is a really ominous thing and it occurs Super Tuesday, which is only 1 month from today. Thompson would have to elevate to first tier BEFORE then to win that state from Guilliani, and it’s just not going to happen.
CA and IL are also Feb 5. They are proportional and enormous and they are not an obvious place for Thompson to be strong, regardless of mojo — but the overall point here is there is no time for a change of mojo and no money to pay for it. Super Tuesday is only 4 weeks from now. Michigan is next week and is really the first of the major contests, and Thompson won’t even compete there. South Carolina will be diluted on its own day by Nevada — and SC is NOT WTA. Only a handful of delegates can be won there.
This is a delegates numbers game. If you don’t compete in California, Illinois and NY, there is no way to get big numbers. Worse still, perhaps worst of all, Texas doesn’t vote until March, and it is NOT WTA. The power of Texas will be spread out among multiple players.
You can’t walk into a convention in 3rd or 4th or 5th place in delegate count and expect to be annointed. There is just no mechanism for persuading the top 2 to backstab their own people so a 2nd tier candidate can have the nomination. It is conceivable this might have happened in the distant past, but there is far too much money involved in the process now for that scenario to make any sense at all. People will not tolerate having their money stolen like that.
“South Carolina will be diluted on its own day by Nevada “
I think SC will be the major nut to crack for Fred. If he doesn’t win 1rst outright, IMO he’s done, and even if he wins 1rst place outright, that just gets him a ticket to a bigger fight where it will be still be an uphill battle for him.
JMO but I think he’ll finish 2nd or 3rd in SC behind Huckabee and Mitt(provided Mitt doesn’t drop out before then). With a2nd or worse finish in SC he’ll either drop out before Super Tuesday, or take such a drubbing that there will no longer be any point in continuing. Again, that’s JMHO.
Not necessarily true, a brokered convention can be had by the candidate who is the majorities second choice. If a candidate doesn’t get the nomination the first time around all bets are off. All the delegates are released from their obligations and can support whom they feel is the best choice. At this point the deals will be flying.
During Nov, when his numbers were sinking he produced policy positions which settled remaining doubts I had about him. It's at that time that I concluded that he was one of the most (if not the most) serious candidates in the race.
I watched his 17 minute video to Iowans and found it to be powerful. I thought his "after-Iowa" speech ("ticket to the next dance") was very classy. He does not appear to have engaged in the type of attack ads that others have.
I send him money about on a weekly basis now, here and there, as I have extra funds (I remain far below the legal limit).
He has made me willing to go the distance psychologically with his campaign. The day after he drops out, I will consider alternatives.