Posted on 01/05/2008 9:05:25 AM PST by pissant
Manchester (NH): Fred Thompson spent most of caucus night in Iowa hovering between third and fourth place -- a far cry from the lofty first-place position he held in Rasmussen's poll of likely Republican caucus-goers last June. It has been a long time since Thompson has made a compelling reason to be in this race. And it should be a very short time before he confesses a compelling reason to exit stage right. A bystander in his own race, Thompson's political what-could-have-been slipped through his fingers long before he announced his candidacy. “The process for running for president has begun so early,” says GOP political strategist Charlie Gerow, “that if you are not in the game, you are not in the game … and Fred Thompson was never in the game.” Larry Sabato, who directs the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, says “the biggest loser of 2008 is already known: Fred Thompson. The biggest pre-candidacy buildup since Ted Kennedy in the 1980 cycle has led to the same result -- a failure to come close to fulfilling his high expectations.” The short story of Fred Thompson started just about a year ago at the conservative love-fest known as the Conservative Political Action Convention, or CPAC. There, hints of a Thompson hat-toss began. By late spring, he was all the rage. He hit his high note with a clever video smacking down docudrama king Michael Moore. Suddenly, the political and media worlds could not get enough of Fred. It was his shining moment -- except that Fred forgot to shine. Summer came and went. So did a whole lot of staff and a whole lot of opportunities.
His eventual announcement in September came with a hefty price tag -- the Republican Primary voters in New Hampshire. He chose to announce on Jay Leno’s show, bypassing the first New Hampshire debate the same evening.
“He was an attractive idea, an image, and the reality couldn’t match it,” Sabato says. “This may be the fate of anyone touted as the next Reagan. Reagan is no longer a man. He’s a myth. No living human being can fulfill those expectations.”
“My opinion of what happened to Fred Thompson is that he turned out to be ... Fred Thompson,” adds Matt Lebo, political science professor at New York’s Stony Brook University.
“I don't think it’s just his late entry -- that is just a symptom of the problem,” Lebo says. “The problem is that he has never shown a willingness to fight for conservative causes. Believing in those causes isn't enough. There should be some evidence that you are willing to do something about it.”
While comparisons have been made to the failed 2004 campaign of Wesley Clark, those may not be fair. Clark was a political novice; Thompson is not.
So why did Thompson go wrong?
“I think he was expecting to ride in, pick up the bouquet, and that would be that,” says Bert A. Rockman, head of the political science department at Purdue University. “It doesn’t work that way.
“People confuse appearance with reality. Thompson played hard-as-nails authority figures on TV and in the movies. But his campaign had no distinctiveness, no comparative advantage.”
Somehow, someone must have convinced Thompson that times had changed and he could run a different kind of campaign, one that suited his low-key approach to politics. A campaign sans rubber-chicken dinners, moldy bus tours and all the other degrading aspects of running for president.
Tack on the misconceptions that tens of millions of dollars were waiting for him, that he could easily round up organizational support -- and that pretty much sums up why the promise of Fred never happened.
As the country shifts its gaze toward New Hampshire, Thompson stands to fare even worse here than he did in Iowa. As of Friday morning, he was polling sixth among likely Republican voters.
So, the near-term question for Fred Thompson isn't if he drops out of the race but when.
“South Carolina will be diluted on its own day by Nevada “
I think SC will be the major nut to crack for Fred. If he doesn’t win 1rst outright, IMO he’s done, and even if he wins 1rst place outright, that just gets him a ticket to a bigger fight where it will be still be an uphill battle for him.
JMO but I think he’ll finish 2nd or 3rd in SC behind Huckabee and Mitt(provided Mitt doesn’t drop out before then). With a2nd or worse finish in SC he’ll either drop out before Super Tuesday, or take such a drubbing that there will no longer be any point in continuing. Again, that’s JMHO.
Not necessarily true, a brokered convention can be had by the candidate who is the majorities second choice. If a candidate doesn’t get the nomination the first time around all bets are off. All the delegates are released from their obligations and can support whom they feel is the best choice. At this point the deals will be flying.
It may be the presentation of the MSM on what he said, but the average voter will not be looking for the entire quote to see if it is "cherry picked" or not. That is one thing that Fred fails at miserably - the sound bite.
It would be wonderful if Freepers could go out and knock on every individual door in America to tell them that Freds words were misconstrued, but let's face it, it ain't going to happen. So when he says things like he doesn't really want the job, even though he meant that he didn't want to campaign for the job, those things stick. Just like when he said last week in Iowa that he was going to come in second, and raised two fingers to indicate that, it doesn't matter that later on that wasn't what he meant. He said it, and it sticks. Most people do not spend hours on the internet looking for the real context of a quote. They hear the quote, and move on.
I agree with you, that whether it was what he meant or not, he gave the impression, again rightly or wrongly through the media that he really didn't "want" the job.
Good plan. Repeat it enough and you will believe in anything.
I do not know how often you guys post threads, but when a thread gets scores of responses, it is nearly impossible to answer each person.
Why Fred should drop out and support Hunter? Because Hunter is a better choice for CIC than anyone running.
Why I don’t like Fred? I don’t dislike him, he’s just a moderate
Actually, I could say that about all the Fredheads.
I hate to root for Mccain in NH. I’d rather say Goodbye Mccain.
By the end of the night, though, Fred did edge out McCain for third.
You’re not entitled to your own truth, and several posters have pointed out your lie with the actual facts.
So parsing and ignoring the full body of Thompson's comments over his campaign to prop up a manufactured negative poisens the politic process.
People are just sick and tired of these painfully transparent dirty tricks.
How so? Thompson supporters read the entire passage, understood that portion in context, and interpreted accordingly. Then there's people like yourself who are either incapable of doing so, or lack the intellectual honesty to include context when posting the quote.
During Nov, when his numbers were sinking he produced policy positions which settled remaining doubts I had about him. It's at that time that I concluded that he was one of the most (if not the most) serious candidates in the race.
I watched his 17 minute video to Iowans and found it to be powerful. I thought his "after-Iowa" speech ("ticket to the next dance") was very classy. He does not appear to have engaged in the type of attack ads that others have.
I send him money about on a weekly basis now, here and there, as I have extra funds (I remain far below the legal limit).
He has made me willing to go the distance psychologically with his campaign. The day after he drops out, I will consider alternatives.
He cannot run a campaign that escapes the MOE, he's sure as hell not qualified to run the United States.
Hunter should have taken on Boxer or Feinstein at some point if he wanted to run for President. Even with a loss, he’d have a higher profile and be viable.
Fred should have waited for a brokered convention, then he could have had the nomination for the asking.
Now it will be Jeb Bush who benefits from a brokered convention.
IMHO Huck and Mitt both might be gone. Mitt is up against the wall in NH if he doesn’t win only his money will keep him in. Huckabee has to bring a big bounce from Iowa and the early polls aren’t showing that. He won’t be the only “flash in the pan” to come out of Iowa.
Thank you! I never said I didn't like Fred. Fred made a BIG mistake in my opinion and unfortunately, that is the perception many people have of Fred now. So we will see how he does in the next few primaries...
Actually, I could say that about all the Fredheads.
LOL! Your own posted quote doesn't support your claim and you think Fred's supporters have a reading comprehension problem?
Reality is Fred may have problems winning even in Tennessee. I'm not seeing any Fred yard signs yet just a few very small window stickers. But I have seen some Paul yard signs though. I think what I've thought all along Fred is simply running as a place holder against Rudy. Once Wudy is eliminated from the races so will it go with Fred. Who will Fred support? Likely McCain or Mitt. Either one are more to W's liking who is likely behind a lot of this. Fred's just agreed to go along for the ride it seems.
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